Drought in Oklahoma, May 1 to 31, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1251 AM CDT Sun May 1 2022

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected throughout most of the 06Z TAF period.
Winds will be out of the south and southeast of 15 to 25 kts,
especially after sunrise this morning. PROB30 group for all TAF
sites as early as 19Z in KDHT continuing to near the end of the
TAF period. Erratic winds could reduce vsbys at times if storms
move directly over TAF site.

Meccariello

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday Night...

Northwest flow aloft will transition to westerly flow later this
evening, and by late Sunday morning the flow will become more out of
the southwest as a system over the Pacific Northwest dives down
towards the Four Corners.  Overall a mild day Northwest flow today
will gradually transition tonight to a southeast flow and begin to
draw up moisture to the Panhandles.  This will help set the stage
for tomorrow's Severe Weather.

As the upper level disturbance will approach the Four Corners a lee
surface low will setup over southeast NM and track north through the
day.  The dryline will likely develop about 50-75 miles west of the
TX/NM border.  Rich low level Theta E moisture transport from the
southeast will bring dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s just east of
the dryline. Surface heating will be a bit slower, given the
continued mixing from the southeast winds through the day, but there
shouldn't be any issues to get enough heating for the cap to break
in the mid to late afternoon.  Right now most guidance suggests a
shortwave will move through around the time that convection is
expected to take place, and add enhanced lift.  This is expected to
coincide with the line up of the right entrance region of the
upper level jet, which will allow for large scale accent.
Additionally, mid level lapse rates around 8 C/km will support
ample cooling in the mid levels and likely support ML CAPE values
over 2000 J/kg. Given the east to southeast flow at the surface
and substantial westerly flow aloft we can expect fairly
supportive effective shear and helicity values to support
supercells capable of producing very large hail that could be in
excess of baseballs. As we get later into the evening, a strong
low level jet will set up, which will ramp up the 0-1 km helicity
values in support of tornado development. At this point we'll need
more discrete storms to be in play, especially along the warm
front. Right now the front is progged to be along a Dalhart to
Clarendon line around 7 PM Sunday evening. If the storms manage to
cluster out by this time, then the tornado threat will likely be
reduced. But if the storms can remain discrete, surface based,
and latch onto that warm frontal boundary, then not only will our
tornado potentials increase, but we could see possibly longer
lived tornadoes.

Weber

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...

Cold front Monday night and another shot at precip mid week.

The mid-level low that brings us severe storms on Sunday will
eject into the Plains on Monday. Depending on how slow the low is
to move, we may still see some storms lingering in our eastern
counties in the morning. Depending on if the storms are elevated
or rooted at the surface, we may still see storms with hail, some
of which could be severe. The most likely outcome is for the
storms to be elevated by that point, making the storms not severe,
but there is still a small chance that storms could be surface
based. Models aren't in the best agreement with how Monday will
play out. There are variations on the timing of the storms
exiting, various locations of the surface low, and variations on
how fast the dryline will slide eastward during the day. All these
discrepancies between models lead to lower forecast confidence.

Models are in slightly better agreement on the fact that a cold
front should push into the area Monday night as the surface low
slides southeast and high pressure fills in behind. With a tight
pressure gradient, the front looks to be a bit breezy with its
arrival. The high pressure shifts eastward on Tuesday, allowing
surface winds to turn back to southerly. This will set the stage
for moisture advection. Back on Monday, the next system aloft was
coming onshore in the Pac NW. Models again have great disagreement
between themselves as to the track and speed of this next system
and its crossing into the Plains. If the GFS deterministic is
right, the system will provide lift for the moisture on Wednesday
and bring our next chance for storms. If the EC deterministic is
right, the system will be slower and take a more southern track,
leading to storms more on Thursday. Ensemble members also have
various timings and tracks to the upper level system. Thus have
retained the NBM pops, leading to what looks to be a 48 hr period
of rain that will in actuality end up being a 12 hr period to see
rain. Model soundings don't look that impressive just yet for
seeing severe weather, so perhaps we'll get lucky this round for
some nice rain to help alleviate drought.

With all this questionable precip, that leaves the question of
fire weather and where does it stand. Depending on where we see
rain fall, and where the dryline ends up some days, will all go
into determining if we will end up seeing elevated to perhaps
critical fire weather. This will mostly have to be a day by day
decision to monitor fuels.

Beat

AVIATION...18Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with northerly
winds around 10-20kts for the next 3-6 hours, becoming more light
and variable for most of the rest of the TAF period. Southeast
winds will pick up in the 10-15kt range at the end of the TAF
period. Skies will start off mostly clear, but then gradually
increase in coverage, mainly above 10kft and may go SCT to BKN
after 06Z tonight.

Weber

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

29/24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
206 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-010900-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
206 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon through the
night with all hazards in play such as large hail, damaging
winds, and tornadoes. Severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled
out for Wednesday into Wednesday night at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed on Sunday.