High Wind in Oklahoma, December 2, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
547 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 436 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022

Updated the forecast to increase the post-frontal winds based on
current observations in western Kansas and the HRRR/RAP, and added
areas of and/or patchy blowing dust across portions of northern
and western Oklahoma with the strong winds behind the front.
Visible satellite imagery and social media posts show a
significant blowing dust event behind the cold front. Visibility
at Scott City KS was down to 1/4SM a little big ago and KGCK is
currently at 1/2SM as the front moved through. Both obs had winds
gusting to around 50 knots. By the time the front gets to
Oklahoma, the wind gusts may start decreasing a little, but still
expect them to be high enough to increase the wind speeds in the
package for this evening. And visibility may not be quite as low
as currently over the High Plains, but do expect enough reduction
to visibility to add to the zones and hit in social media posts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 124 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022

A cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma around 6pm this evening,
then quickly sweep across the forecast area, reaching the Red
River by midnight. Overnight winds behind the front will be rather
gusty (and northerly) due to post frontal mixing. Forecast grids
have a blend of short term guidance which seems to better reflect
the higher peak wind potential over a fairly focused timeframe
behind the front. That being said, frontal timing differences may
still be washing out the potential for briefly higher localized
gusts. The strongest post-frontal winds shouldn't last more than a
few hours with some breezy winds lingering a bit longer.

Colder air behind the front will result in lows below freezing
across the northern third to half of Oklahoma Saturday morning
(upper 30s across southern portions of the forecast area), and
afternoon highs in the 40s and lower 50s with some scattered high
level clouds.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 124 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022

Rain chances return Saturday evening, due to warm air advection,
then shift east Sunday. Sunday and Monday will see a warming trend
(especially as southerly surface flow quickly returns).

Models show another front Monday night / Tuesday, though there is
some question as to how far south the front will make it before
retreating. As an upper level trough approaches midweek,
precipitation chances will increase again.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022

A strong cold front will be moving into northwest Oklahoma soon.
Very strong northerly winds will occur behind the front.
Visibilities are being significantly reduced in western Kansas
with blowing dust behind the front. The blowing dust is expected
to affect northwestern Oklahoma (including KWWR) and will likely
see at least patchy areas of reduced visibilities in blowing dust
farther south and east as well (including KPNC and KCSM). It is
not out of the question that some blowing dust could be observed
later at KOKC/KOUN/KLAW, but the probability isn't as high as
farther northwest so will not include in the TAFs right now but
will continue to watch trends as this front moves south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  32  45  34  50 /   0   0  50  20
Hobart OK         32  46  35  55 /   0   0  60  20
Wichita Falls TX  37  51  39  56 /   0   0  30  20
Gage OK           27  45  33  57 /   0   0  20   0
Ponca City OK     27  44  32  50 /   0   0  10   0
Durant OK         39  53  39  51 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
140 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031945-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
140 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Fire Weather...
Gusty southwest winds and low humidity will create elevated fire
weather conditions this afternoon in northwestern Oklahoma.

.Strong Winds...
A front will enter northwest Oklahoma around 6pm tonight and race
across the region clearing most of the forecast area by about
midnight and bringing strong northerly winds behind it with gusts
up to 40 to 45 mph. The strongest winds will be just behind the
front lasting only a few hours before gradually tapering off.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

No hazardous weather is expected.

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