Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, August 28, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
203 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

Weak mid-level trough lingers over the south-central plains into
Monday, and with diurnal heating and moderate elevated instability,
there is a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening and again tomorrow afternoon. With dry
low-levels and high LCLs, a few strong to marginally severe
storms are possible and may produce strong wind gusts. Another
humid day is expected tomorrow with dewpoint temperatures in the
low/mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

Ensemble/cluster analysis shows minimal variation in the synoptic
pattern until next weekend when there is more variation/uncertainty.
So with that in mind, models/ensembles are showing the upper high
beginning to poke into portions of central/southern Plains Monday
night into Tuesday which will gradually shift rain chances into
southern portions of the fa. Meanwhile, a weak boundary will move
south across the area during this time which will also aid in
shifting rain chances south. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain will
be the main concerns with storms early this week. Models then show
weak shortwaves moving around the SE/S portion of the upper high
which could maintain at least a low chance for showers/storms across
southern/southwestern portions of the fa through the middle part of
the week.

As previously mentioned, there is more uncertainty on what will
happen next weekend. Models show high pressure centered over the
western and southeast U.S. by next weekend with a general weakness
or weak trough over the region. The GFS is strongest in this area
with it trying to develop an upper low although it appears to be an
outlier. In addition, the GFS ensemble is showing more variation
compared to the other ensembles for this weekend. This will have an
impact on rain chances for the fa with the GFS showing more QPF over
more of the fa. Since there is more uncertainty with the GFS and GFS
ensemble, will lean towards the drier scenario of the other
models/ensembles for now with some low PoPs, mainly in southern
portions of the fa, next weekend and hopefully as get closer things
will come into better agreement.

Temperatures are currently expected to remain around or below normal
for this time of year throughout the week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

VFR conditions are expected to continue throughout the period with
gusty southerly winds during the day. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon and evening near KPNC/KSWO and possibly
near the OKC metro. Any storms that develop will have the
capability of producing strong wind gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  92  71  91 /  20  40  30  30
Hobart OK         74  95  70  93 /  20  40  40  50
Wichita Falls TX  76  94  73  93 /  10  30  30  50
Gage OK           68  94  66  91 /  30  40  30  20
Ponca City OK     73  95  70  93 /  20  40  30  20
Durant OK         74  93  73  92 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-291700-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1159 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible into early Monday
across portions of Oklahoma and north Texas. By mid to late
afternoon some of the storms could become strong to severe across
portions of northern and central Oklahoma and continue into the
evening with strong winds and locally heavy rain the main
concerns. Although storms will remain possible overnight, the
potential of severe weather will decrease after mid evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances continue Monday and Tuesday across much of
the area. Some isolated strong storms will be possible but the
potential for organized severe weather will be relatively low.
Some of the storms Monday and Tuesday could also produce locally
heavy rainfall. After Tuesday, thunderstorm chances will generally
be confined to portions of southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
237 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

OKZ029-282000-
Cleveland OK-
237 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Cleveland County through 300 PM CDT...

At 237 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
western Norman, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Norman, Lake Thunderbird, Stanley Draper Lake and Little Axe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3517 9740 3524 9748 3537 9733 3525 9717
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 225DEG 15KT 3525 9739

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Maxwell