Isolated severe thunderstorms moved across portions of eastern North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Severe reports primarily consisted of damaging wind gusts, with only small hail reported.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
Isolated severe thunderstorms moved across portions of eastern North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Severe reports primarily consisted of damaging wind gusts, with only small hail reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 18, 11:50 AM CST, 1 hour 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND Issued by National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1250 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022 The main concern for this afternoon is the possible development of strong to severe thunderstorms along a frontal boundary that is currently crossing the Red River. SPC mesoanalysis suggests SBCIN has eroded over the past couple hours, but satellite imagery still shows more of a stable texture to low level clouds, and a band of light showers approaching Fargo has yet to encounter uninhibited buoyancy. While it seems likely that scattered convection will initiate over northwest Minnesota by late afternoon as an upper low continues to deepen over southern Manitoba, the severe threat could be somewhat tapered by lingering CIN. The most likely area for isolated severe storms appears to be south of Highway 2, where forecast effective bulk shear exceeds 30 kts. UPDATE Issued at 643 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022 Storms moving through the Mayville area this morning have began to expand to the SW and a lane of showers and storms has developed along a Baudette to Wahpeton line, moving northeast. Main threat for these morning storms will be lightning and should move east of the area by 9 AM CDT. Have updated grids for current radar trends. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022 A cluster of overnight storms and showers is continuing to move eastward into southern Grand Forks county and now northwest Traill county. Continue to think they should dissipate as they move further from the axis of instability. Primary threat will be lightning. For today, a short wave moving along the intl border between wrn ND and SE Saskatchewan will continue to move across the CWA and should move east of the area by 00Z. At the surface, an axis of low 50s dewpoints will shift into northwest/west central MN this morning and move east of the area by 21Z. Mid 50s dewpoints advect north along the axis and enter my southeastern zones early this afternoon. As surface heating increases during the afternoon hours, MUCAPE values will increase to around 1200 J/KG by noon time, and increase to around 1500 J/KG as the instability axis shifts east of the area. Bulk shear vectors will range from around 15 kts across Lake of the Woods to 50 kts across the Wadena/Park Rapids area. There will be a small window this afternoon where a few strong or possibly severe storms occur in the far east as shear and instability increase, especially across southern Bemidji/Wadena/Hubbard counties, where shear will be high enough to support a few organized updrafts. However, the strongest storms are expected to occur over NE MN as the RH axis shifts into DLH's area during peak heating this afternoon. There is a fairly small window in our eastern zones, but a few storms capable of producing quarter sized hail and/or 60 mph gusts cannot be ruled out. Having said that, low MUCAPE values of around 500 J/KG will persist across the remainder of the area (NE ND and NW MN) throughout the day, and showers and some isolated TS activity is expected across the northern half of the forecast area. Lower dewpoints move into the eastern zones by early evening and most TS activity should end by 2300 L, with a few lingering showers possible in the northeast. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022 Primary focus in the long term period is on the system Thursday into Friday and potential impacts from widespread rainfall. There is still a conditional risk for strong/severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Thursday-Friday: We continue to monitor the passage of the main mid/upper trough across our region that should bring a period of widespread rainfall to our CWA. Timing/track is still pretty consistent along with high probs for at least 0.25" of rainfall (80- 90% of NBM4.0/4.1). There continue to be variations in strength of the closed 700/500 MB with shifts the potential for organized deformation further north (or weakens it) and the position of the warm sector which influences instability/potential for severe thunderstorm development in our south. Right now majority of guidance keeps the warm sector south with only a few members showing shorter UH tracks on HREF clipping our southern CWA. Primary driver for organized rain initially will be axis of WAA ahead of the main trough supported by large scale synoptic ascent as the main trough axis pushes into our region. If the mid level deformation remains progressive or weaker in our CWA that lowers the window for lingering moderate/heavy rain beyond the initial push and a quicker transition to lighter showers as CAA overtakes our CWA. Right now this is what is show my majority of ensemble clusters. 0.5" or greater totals still remains likely for these periods in our north, though the probs for 1" or greater have trended down now (less than 20% on NBM4.1) likely reflecting the more progressive trend/weaker deformation signal. Saturday-Wednesday: Northwest flow builds into the region behind the trough passage and strong CAA combined with falling heights will support unseasonably cool temperatures. Depending on degree of clearing frost or even freeze conditions are still possible Saturday and Sunday mornings. A transition to a more westerly zonal flow allows for moderation later Sunday into next week. This pattern will support more progressive/embedded shortwave passages, but consistency in these features is low at this range which is usually the case in progressive flow patterns. in any case, while ensembles nightly potential for rain (or even thunderstorms) there isn't a strong signal for impactful weather at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon. The chance of thunder is mainly limited to BJI and TVF. Outside of this potential, VFR conditions are likely through the afternoon and evening. MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings are forecast to develop at all terminals outside the Red River Valley later tonight into Thursday morning. Chances for rain will also begin to increase in eastern North Dakota by Thursday afternoon. Strong westerly winds around 20 kts with gusts around 30 kts will subside this evening. Light and variable winds late tonight will turn southeasterly Thursday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022 Majority of sites are on the way down from their previous crests, with a handful still plateauing or slightly rising. Thanks to the dry conditions over the past several days, the rivers where able to slowly diminish, with a handful dropping below flood stage. We do have a system moving in Today through Wednesday that will bring a brief shower or two to the region especially along and south of I94. Thursday looks to be more widespread rain across the entire region, with up to an inch possible especially along and north of the Highway 200 corridor. Thunderstorms will be possible as well, which could to lead higher amounts across the area depending on where they track and develop. Thunderstorms are possible across the entire CWA, with the best chance over Otter Tail, Hubbard, and Grant counties. How this impacts river is uncertain, but some type of impact is possible especially where thunderstorms develop and track. Overland flooding continues across NE ND, with satellite imagery showing farm fields and county roads still flooded. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. UPDATE...Hollan SHORT TERM...Speicher LONG TERM...DJR AVIATION...Hollan HYDROLOGY...Spender
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND Issued by National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1256 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022 MNZ001-002-004>009-013>016-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039- 049-052>054-191800- West Polk-Norman-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall- East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk- North Clearwater-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey- Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes- Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-Western Walsh- 1256 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. The main hazards will be small hail and gusty winds. River and overland flooding continues for portions of the Red River Valley and Devils Lake basin. Refer to the latest flood warnings and statements for detailed information on specific locations. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday A stronger system may enhance flooding impacts from widespread rainfall, and localized heavy rain may lead additional issues related to new or ongoing flooding. A few strong or severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon in far southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters may be needed. MNZ003-017-022>024-027>032-040-191800- Clay-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker- East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant- 1256 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of west central Minnesota. The main hazards will be large hail up to quarter size and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday A few strong or severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon in far southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters may be needed. Hollan
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 22 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:57 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Broadcast media relayed a public report of a semi-trailer flipped on its side in the northbound lane of I-29. Time and location were estimated based on radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, May 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1033713.