Hail and Damaging Wind in North Carolina, May 4, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1023 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm temperatures and a few mainly afternoon and evening
showers and storms are expected through Thursday. Showers and
thunderstorms will become more numerous on Friday, and the increased
coverage will linger into Saturday as a strong cold front crosses
our region from the west. Cooler temperatures and diminishing shower
chances are expected for the rest of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1020 AM EDT Wednesday: An upper vort lobe is passing east
across the FA with little fanfare outside of increased cloudiness.
Scattered showers have invaded the TN Border. Outside of that,
convective debris from the west has kept temperatures cooler than
forecasted so tweaked values to match this trend. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track.

Another convectively active day is in store as a cold front
impinges upon the FA and crosses east thru the later afternoon. The
airmass ahead of this system will become moderately unstable, while
deep layered shear remains relatively low. Soundings show sbCIN
overcome around 16z across the NC mtns and abut 2 hours later over
the ern zones. With limited shear, yet good frontal forcing, expect
singular and multicell storms crossing east with the strongest moist
convg showing up across the I-77 corridor arnd 21z. With better
triggering than yesterday, expect a few storms likely become severe
and produce large hail and possibly damaging winds. The activity
wanes by late afternoon as the sfc trof axis broadens and slowly
shifts east of the FA.

Max temps will remain quite warm with readings in the u80s non/mtns
and arnd 80 F across the mtn valleys. Mins will be a little cooler
than recent mornings and there shud be a better fog potential across
the NC mtns as crossover temps are likely met over many locales.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 am Wednesday: Much of Thursday will be marked by NE flow,
supporting a relatively dry and stable (albeit still very warm) air
mass over the forecast area. However, moisture and instability is
forecast to begin increasing from the southwest late in the day as
warm front lifts north in response to deepening cyclone moving
northeast out of the southern Great Plains. This will increase the
potential for isolated showers and storms to initiate across western
portions of the forecast area by Thu evening. PoPs slowly ramp up
Thu night into early Friday as the moistening air mass interacts
with accelerating low level SW upslope flow and the warm front.

PoPs increase to likely to categorical during the daylight hours
Friday as increasingly stacked cyclone passes north of the region,
dragging occluded front through the southern Appalachians and
vicinity. The latest guidance is in good agreement in depicting
moderate instability across the forecast area Friday afternoon,
along with around 50 kts of deep layer shear. Considering these
parameters, isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms
appear to be a good bet Fri afternoon. Convection is expected to
linger into Friday evening, but should steadily diminish as drier
and more stable air advect in behind the front. Temps will remain
around 10 degrees above climo through Friday, then cool a bit while
still remaining above normal Fri night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 am Wednesday: Cold core upper low is forecast to be
centered near the forecast area at the start of the period, with the
potential for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two expected to
increase, mainly during the afternoon and evening as the thermal
trough aloft sweeps across the area. PoPs range from small chance
south to likely north during the afternoon. Any convection is likely
to diminish fairly quickly Sat night as the upper low progresses to
the NC Coast. This will signal the beginning of establishment of a
highly amplified/non-progressive pattern for the Southeast, and
indeed the entire Conus by early next week, with the global models
consistently depicting development of an omega block by Day 6. It
appears that the western Carolinas and northeast GA will be strongly
influenced by the ridge portion of this block, resulting in dry and
warming conditions early next week. Temps are forecast to be right
around normal for much of the period, before warming to around 5
degrees above climo next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Flight conds remain VFR this morning as mid-
level clouds from convective debris from the west continues to pass
overhead the CFWA. A sfc frontal system moves in from the west late
this morning and crosses east thru the afternoon. Have timed prob30s
for TSRA across the NC terminals and with more uncertainty in storm
coverage across the Upstate, have included a VCTS mention generally
btw 18z-00z. Southwesterly winds will veer behind the front late in
the period to nw/ly outside the mtns, while winds at KAVL will
remain channeled nw/ly and become gusty during the latter period.

Outlook: Afternoon/evening convection and associated restrictions
along with isolated morning fog/low cigs is expected through Friday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...CAC/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CAC/SBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
524 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ101>103-050930-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
524 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the Carolina and
northeast Georgia mountains, mainly this morning. The main threats
will be from occasional cloud to ground lightning and brief
downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ008>014-019-104>109-050930-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-
Chester-Greenwood-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
524 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a crossing
cold front, mainly this afternoon. Some of these storms could become
strong to severe and produce brief damaging winds and large hail.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning and brief downpours will also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Lane