Low pressure tracked along a warm front, bringing rain with it. High amounts of moisture led to locally heavy rain, causing incidents of flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
Low pressure tracked along a warm front, bringing rain with it. High amounts of moisture led to locally heavy rain, causing incidents of flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 3, 8:31 PM EST, 5 hours 29 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 931 PM EDT Tue May 3 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will cross the region through Wednesday. High pressure will briefly build over the eastern Great Lakes Thursday. This area of high pressure is then expected to move into New England and southeastern Canada as a strong, slow- moving area of low pressure tracks from the Ohio River Valley to off the Mid-Atlantic coastline through the weekend. High pressure should return by early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Western MD and vicinity: Areas near and west of the Allegheny Front and north of Petersburg WV will be located closer to stronger forcing from a shortwave trough and associated surface low passing over OH/PA. CAPE likely becomes rooted at or near the surface this evening, eclipsing 1000 J/kg at its peak. Moderate shear is modest, with low-level curvature to the wind profile could result in transient supercell structures, though the main storm mode will likely be linear bands or clusters with an associated risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts, or possibly even an isolated tornado if supercells evolve. Based on the current presentation on the radar (0120Z), the convective mode been linear, but with occasional bowing structures and brief kinks on the line. At this juncture, all convection does remain sub-severe. Forecast soundings and low-level winds parallel to an approaching cold front attached to the low could result in training convection. HREF probabilities show potential for localized 2+ inches of rainfall, which given somewhat higher soil moisture in this area (relative to further south and east) may result in a few isolated instances of flooding tonight. The greatest risk area appears to be west of the Eastern Continental Divide in Garrett County, closest to the aforementioned trough/low. Timing wise, the threat looks to be focused on the mid to late evening hours (i.e., through midnight). East and south of there into eastern West Virginia and western Maryland east of the Allegheny Front, the threat may be more isolated in nature. Elsewhere: Despite a strong near-surface stable layer, forecast soundings indicate 600-1200 J/kg of CAPE aloft (lifting from ~875 mb) late this evening. This, coupled with moderately strong warm/moist advection overtop an approaching warm front could keep storms going well into the overnight. The low-level stability should preclude any gusty winds from reaching the surface, but hail potential may linger. The low-level stable layer/temperature inversion could also amplify the sound of thunder overnight, making it rather disruptive. At least isolated thunderstorms are possible for much of the night, though could end up being more numerous at times given the strength of the approaching warm front; nocturnal convection, however, is notoriously fickle and hard to predict. There will be a fair amount of moisture in the atmosphere, as well, with PWs up to around 1.5" (1-2 SA above normal). As of the 00Z upper air launch from KIAD, the PW is presently just under 1.25". The enhanced tropospheric moisture profile, coupled with moisture flux into the area, could result in some heavy downpours and perhaps an isolated instance or two of nuisance flooding/ponding in urban or poor drainage areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A cold front attached to low pressure tracking up the Saint Lawrence River Valley will drop across the Mid-Atlantic during the day Wednesday. Modest instability and shear will be present, so if enough heating or convergence can evolve along and ahead of the front, there may be a conditional risk for a strong to severe thunderstorm or two (though the greatest chance for this at the moment appears to be over southern VA/NC). After the cold front clears the region, cooler and drier weather will follow through Thursday as high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An occluded system and a lagging, slow-moving upper-level low will likely bring an extended period of precipitation to our region Friday through Sunday. The first round of precipitation will be associated with the occluded low which will start affecting our region on Friday as we start experiencing overrunning precipitation moving into the region. The main low pressure system will likely pass through the region Friday night into Saturday bringing more widespread precipitation. Depending on the location and timing of the system, our region could receive a period of moderately heavy rain; some models give portions of our region close to an inch and a half of rain over a 12 to 24 hour period. I suspect we won't have a big risk for flooding from this initial round of rain as we have been pretty dry as of late and the rain happens over a long period. The low is forecast past to the east on Saturday with a 850 mb low approaching from the west. As the 850 mb low passes through our region, easterly flow at that level is forecast to increase Saturday into Sunday. The easterly flow will lead to advection of moisture aloft from the Atlantic Ocean ahead of a second round of precipitation associated with the upper-level low. The slow-moving, almost closed off upper-level low is forecast to drop into our region from the west/northwest Saturday into Sunday. A combination of increasing easterly winds aloft, along with the forcing from the upper-level low, will likely lead to an extended period of precipitation. The slow / closed off nature of the upper low means that showers at the surface will likely be slow moving and will have the potential to produce periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. An extended period of rain occurring over areas that become saturated from the heavier rain on Friday may lead to a flood threat for this weekend. The rapid rise/flash flood threat appears low, but more gradual rises in stream and local watershed levels could still lead to some isolated to scattered flooding. This threat will be highly dependent on how much rain we receive initially on Friday, and on how progressive the upper-level low will be this weekend. The system is forecast to shift offshore and stall through early next week. High pressure is forecast to build over or just north of our region, but the low sitting offshore may lead to a continue easterly flow, cloud cover, and cooler conditions. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... While conditions are presently VFR, ceilings are expected to take a tumble by around 03-04Z, and especially after 06z-08z, with IFR to LIFR expected. Visibility may be lowered in patchy fog and/or showers or a few thunderstorms overnight, as well. Thunder is most likely near KMRB 02Z-06Z. Confidence was too low for a mention of thunder in the TAFs at the metro terminals. Flow should be generally southeast (120-150) through the night AOB 10 kts, though a few gusts of 15-20 kts are possible this evening. Small hail/LLWS is possible with the strongest storms, as well. A cold front will drop across the terminals Wednesday turning winds to the SW then NW by early to mid afternoon. A few showers or thunderstorms may develop, but confidence is low. Otherwise, after some potential fog or low clouds Wednesday night, VFR should prevail Thursday. Winds likely turn NE by late Thursday. Sub-VFR conditions are likely Friday through Sunday due to continued unsettled weather associated with low pressure affecting our region. && .MARINE... Southeasterly wind gusts of near 20 knots are expected throughout the evening ahead of an approaching warm front. The wind should slacken a bit heading into Wednesday, then may increase again in NW flow behind a cold front Wednesday night into early Thursday. Lighter NE flow is then expected by late Thursday. A few thunderstorms are possible late tonight through Wednesday. SCA conditions are possible this weekend as a surface low passes near or over the region. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A south to southeasterly flow will strengthen today as a low pressure approaches. The low will pass through later this evening, but an onshore flow will likely persist behind the low through the middle portions of the week. Positive tidal anomalies will increase during this time. Minor flooding cannot be ruled out, but action stage is most likely through the next few days. Most guidance seems to be underdoing the tides in the southerly flow regime, but the Steven's ensemble has Annapolis approaching minor flood. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>543. && SYNOPSIS...DHOF NEAR TERM...BRO/DHOF SHORT TERM...DHOF LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...BRO/DHOF/JMG MARINE...DHOF/JMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMG/DHOF
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1209 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ052>057-050415- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George- 1209 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Tonight Isolated instances of flooding are possible tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday There is a limited threat for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening, mainly south of Interstate 66 and Highway 50. There is a limited threat for flooding, mainly on Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508- WVZ050>053-055-050415- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta- Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Hardy- 1209 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland. .DAY ONE...Tonight Isolated instances of flooding are possible tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday There is a limited threat for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening, mainly south of Interstate 66 and Highway 50. There is a limited threat for flooding, mainly on Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-050415- Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant- Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 1209 AM EDT Wed May 4 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland County Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight Isolated instances of flooding are possible tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday There is a limited threat for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening, mainly south of Highway 50. There is a limited threat for flooding, mainly on Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this evening.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The road was closed due to flooding near the intersection of Woodburn Road and Spicewood Drive.
Road was closed due to flooding near the intersection of Liberty Furnace Road and Dellinger Acres Road.
Flooding close the roadway at the intersection of John Marshall Hwy. and Bobcat Ln.
Flooding around the 3700 block of Prosperity Ave. closed the roadway.
Road closed due to flooding near the intersection of Woodburn Rd. and Spicewood Dr.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, May 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1022956, 1022957, 1032457, 1032459, 1032461.