Damaging Wind in North Carolina, May 22, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
239 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the region from the west late today
and likely stall in the region tonight through Monday. The front
will struggle south across the area into Tuesday as high pressure
begins to ridge down from the north through mid week. A stronger
cold front will move in from the west on Thursday and is expected to
cross the region by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 pm EDT: The most recent convection-allowing model runs
continue to agree on the best development this afternoon occurring
initially over the high terrain, and regional radars are starting to
show blossoming coverage there. This activity is expected to develop
eastward ahead of an approaching cold front, with thunderstorms
moving off the Blue Ridge late this afternoon and crossing the
Piedmont this evening. Despite decent insolation today after the
morning low clouds scattered, mid-afternoon sbCAPE values have only
rebounded to around 1000 to 1500 J/kg in most areas. Lapse rates are
not terribly impressive, but still cannot rule out an isolated
severe storm as the activity moves east off the escarpment and
better surface cold pools get established.

Meanwhile, a weak H5 shortwave moving over the lower MS River Valley
late today will lift toward the base of the southern Appalachians
tonight through Monday. This could provide a non-diurnal trend to
the showers and thunderstorms tonight as the associated weak cold
front reaches the southern Appalachians. It remains rather
questionable how far southeast the boundary will penetrate into or
across the region before stalling overnight into Monday. Southerly
upslope/upglide flow over or near the stalling frontal boundary will
increase and copious clouds and robust PoPs will result. This setup
will tilt the risk toward more of a hydro threat with any training
rain showers overnight through Monday versus any significant severe
convective threat. Will shade temperatures cooler in most areas on
Monday given the clouds and greater precipitation coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 pm Sunday: Active/very unsettled weather will continue
through the short term, as relatively slow-moving frontal zone
stretched from the southern Great Plains into the Southeast
interacts with a moist/deep SW flow. Weak frontal wave rippling
along the boundary, which will likely be draped across the CWA at
the start of the period, will enhance warm sector convergence along
the boundary, as well as isentropic lift atop the boundary supports
likely to categorical PoPs Mon evening, with only a gradual tapering
off through the night. The potential for cell training along and/or
across the frontal will support a continued threat for localized
flash flooding during this time frame, while the severe storm
potential will diminish, especially in the stable air north of the
front.

Full blown in-situ cold air damming is likely to develop on Tuesday
as surface high pressure transits New England. This will push the
boundary through all but perhaps the southern tier or two of zones.
Despite the infiltration of more stable air into the area, continued
S/SW flow above the stable layer will support persistent moist...
albeit rather weak isentropic lift above the forecast area Tuesday,
which should allow for at least occasional -RA. Likely PoPs are
advertised across the entire area Tue into Tue night. By the end of
the period, cold air damming should become increasingly shallow as
flow aloft accelerates and surface boundary begins to lift north in
response to central Conus cyclogenesis. This should result in
diminishing precip chances early Wed morning.

Wed and Wed night will see establishment of a warm sector regime for
portions of the area, while locations closer to the Blue Ridge are
likely to see some degree of cold air damming linger. Some
combination of upglide-induced light precip along with diurnal
convective development warrants a 50-60 PoPs mention during much of
this time frame, while chances will begin to increase across western
areas Wed night as mechanical lift develops in response to
accelerating low-to-mid level flow in advance of approaching frontal
system.

The max temp forecast for Tue is quite tricky due to questions about
t the location of the frontal zone and the degree of
precip/convective coverage, but much of the area should see below
normal temps...likely 10 degrees or more below normal across the
northern foothills and northwest Piedmont of NC. Warmer conditions
are expected Wed, but locations near the Blue Ridge will likely see
continued below normal conditions. Min temps will be above climo
through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 pm Sunday: A significant frontal system is expected to
impact the region on Thursday, supporting at least numerous coverage
of showers and storms. With a strong, albeit dampening short wave
trough lifting out just west of the Appalachians on Thu, upper flow
will strengthen to support an uptick in wind shear parameters, and
therefore a higher potential for organized convection. The degree of
instability Thu will depend upon the usual timing/cloud
cover/coverage of early day precip factors, but the synoptic pattern
and expected increase in wind shear should support some degree of
severe storm threat above what is expected earlier in the week. A
continued localized excessive rainfall threat can also be expected.

Drier air will filter in behind the front for Thu night and Friday,
bringing an end to precip chances, with a consensus of global model
guidance suggesting the drier weather will persist through next
weekend. near-normal temps are expected through much of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Isolated to scattered showers have formed
over the Piedmont this afternoon, but with little evidence of
thunder there thus far in limited surface-based instability.
Additional, stronger convection has developed over the mountains and
this activity is expected to be the primary convective focus going
forward as a weak cold front approaches from the west. The latest
terminal forecasts feature mountain convection the earliest this
afternoon, with activity developing eastward on outflows late this
afternoon through the evening hours. Expect VFR conditions except
under any heavy showers or thunderstorms. Winds will remain SW
tonight, except toggling NW at KAVL tonight and KHKY early Monday as
the frontal boundary possibly settles in. Light and variable to
light southerly/southerly flow will develop through Monday as the
boundary stalls. Abundant moisture streaming in over the stalling
frontal zone will permit restrictions to develop and lower overnight
through Monday, with IFR possible at times Monday morning along with
fairly widespread showers. Embedded, scattered thunderstorms may
return by Monday afternoon.

Outlook: The stalled frontal boundary and persistent moisture will
keep precipitation and restrictions in the picture through much of
the week. Another cold front will arrive from the west late week.
Nocturnal fog/stratus will be possible as well, especially where
rain has recently fallen.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
439 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-230845-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
439 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected late this
afternoon and into the evening as a cold front passes across the
region. A few thunderstorms may become strong to severe, with the
main threats being damaging wind gusts and large hail up to the size
of quarters. Any storms which develop will be capable of producing
brief downpours and cloud- to- ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

MPR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
333 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

NCZ033-501-502-222015-
Caldwell Mountains NC-Greater Caldwell NC-Avery NC-
333 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Caldwell and east central Avery Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 333 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of Blowing Rock, or 4 miles southwest of Blowing Rock
In Caldwell County, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Blowing Rock In Caldwell County, Grandfather Mountain State Park,
B.R. Parkway-Linville Falls To Grandfather, Edgemont, Globe,
Patterson, Upton, Linville and Pineola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3611 8181 3612 8169 3612 8155 3610 8152
      3610 8150 3609 8147 3609 8145 3607 8144
      3608 8142 3607 8141 3592 8156 3606 8194
      3614 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 295DEG 15KT 3607 8172

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
335 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

NCZ049-053-505-506-222015-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Yancey NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
335 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
McDowell, northeastern Buncombe and southeastern Yancey Counties
through 415 PM EDT...

At 335 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northeast of Downtown Asheville, or 4 miles north of Black
Mountain. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marion, B.R. Parkway-East Asheville To Craggy Gardens, Mount Mitchell
State Park, B.R. Parkway-Craggy To Little Switzerland, Warren Wilson
College, Black Mountain, Swannanoa, Montreat, Busick and Pleasant
Gardens.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3575 8251 3583 8206 3567 8196 3560 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 000DEG 0KT 3568 8236

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
335 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

NCZ048-052-222015-
Haywood NC-Madison NC-
335 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Madison
and northwestern Haywood Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 335 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Marshall, or 4 miles southwest of Hot Springs, moving
west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hot Springs, Smoky Mountains-Cataloochee, Smoky Mountains-Big Creek,
Waterville, Luck, Fines Creek, Spring Creek and Max Patch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 8285 3592 8282 3594 8280 3571 8277
      3569 8283 3570 8285 3567 8289 3560 8313
      3576 8316 3577 8311 3579 8308 3578 8299
      3584 8292 3587 8292 3588 8290 3593 8292
      3593 8290 3594 8290 3595 8287
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 080DEG 12KT 3584 8288

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
339 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

NCZ051-052-059-222030-
Haywood NC-Swain NC-Northern Jackson NC-
339 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Jackson,
southeastern Swain and southwestern Haywood Counties through 430 PM
EDT...

At 338 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northwest of Sylva, or 4 miles north of Dillsboro, moving west
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sylva, Waynesville, Cherokee, Maggie Valley, Balsam, Webster,
Dillsboro, B.R. Parkway-Smoky Mountains To Balsam Gap, Smoky
Mountains-Balsam Mountain and Smoky Mountains-Oconaluftee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3560 8313 3554 8298 3535 8297 3533 8337
      3550 8338
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 081DEG 12KT 3543 8327

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
343 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

NCZ053-222030-
Buncombe NC-
343 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Buncombe
County through 430 PM EDT...

At 343 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Downtown Asheville, or near West Asheville, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Downtown Asheville, East Asheville, West Asheville, North Asheville,
Woodfin, Swannanoa, Weaverville, Biltmore Forest, Bent Creek and
Leicester.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3548 8265 3566 8279 3574 8246 3557 8230
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 278DEG 6KT 3556 8258

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
354 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

NCZ051-058-222045-
Graham NC-Swain NC-
354 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Swain
and eastern Graham Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 353 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Robbinsville, or 7 miles southeast of Fontana Lake,
moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bryson City, Robbinsville, Smoky Mountains-Deep Creek, Fontana Lake,
Smoky Mountains-Fontana Area, Wesser, Stecoah, Nantahala, Cheoah and
Luada.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3548 8379 3550 8338 3533 8337 3532 8343
      3533 8343 3532 8344 3528 8367 3528 8368
      3525 8383
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 305DEG 6KT 3536 8363

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAC