What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 6, 1:31 PM EST, 1 hour 44 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 6, 1:31 PM EST, 1 hour 44 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
231 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A typical summertime pattern continues as the subtropical ridge in
the western Atlantic persists through the first half of the week.
Daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will continue with the best chance for activity across
the mountains. A cold front will approach the area from the
northwest on Wednesday, tracking across the Carolinas on Thursday
into Friday. This front will keep shower and thunderstorm chances
around through late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across the
area. Not expecting much of a severe threat over the next couple
hrs, yet a couple taller storms across the NC mtns may need an SPS
issuance for wind. Stronger stroms are possible latter this
afternoon. The hydro threat remains as storms are not moving much. A
few advisories and/or flash flood warnings may be needed thru this
evening, esp across the mtns, as storms likely anchor along ridge
tops.
Lingering cloud cover shud make for a low-end dense fog threat most
areas once again overnight. However, the mtn valleys will be under
the gun for dense fog formation before daybreak, esp with the added
widespread precip this evening. Cloudiness and high moisture levels
will also hold min temps up a few degrees from normal. On Sun, the
overall pattern does not change much and the area could once again
be in store for flooding concerns. Mainly across the mtns, yet the
non-mtn soil moiture levels have been increasing making runoff more
of a potential problem. Soundings look similar to today, yet mid-
level dry air increases, which may help generate stronger to severe
cells with damaging winds the main threat. Max temps will remain
close to normal levels.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Saturday: The overall pattern will remain fairly
stagnant through the short term. A weak upper level low will
meander near the northeastern Gulf Coast, stranded between a
climatological Atlantic subtropical ridge and the heat ridge over
the Rockies, while the next shortwave trough approaches the Ohio
Valley and Great Lakes. This weakness aloft will help to keep
our thicknesses and, consequently, our surface temperatures fairly
seasonable through Wednesday, with a very slight increase in high
temperatures each day as the subtropical ridge retrogrades westward
and our low-level flow veers SWly during the first half of the work
week. Each day, scattered to numerous coverage of diurnal showers
and thunderstorms is expected across the mountains and foothills,
with decreasing PoPs to the east towards the more stable airmass
over the Piedmont, as the subtropical ridge helps to suppress
some activity. The ridge will exert its greatest influence on
Tuesday with relatively lower PoPs over the forecast area but as we
head into Wednesday, the next shortwave trough will lower heights
aloft and steepen lapse rates, increasing PoPs in advance of the
next cold front. Expect SBCAPE values each day to peak between
1000-2000 J/kg and given the pattern aloft, bulk shear values will
remain anemic, generally below 10kts. Therefore, organized storms
are not a noteworthy concern. Given the weak flow and seasonable
PWs, the typical threat of locally heavy rain/isolated flooding
will remain in place through the period, especially over the
mountains where convective coverage will be greatest.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Saturday: The next focused weather maker will be a
shortwave trough and attendant cold front that enters our area
on Thursday, and the associated forcing will support numerous to
potentially widespread showers and thunderstorms area wide as the
front drifts south across the area late Thursday. Deterministic
guidance is in fairly good agreement about the timing of the FroPa
during the day on Thursday and during the period of peak diurnal
heating, but there is plenty of time to see the guidance shift
and evolve. There is not a strong heavy rain signal in the pattern
so QPF is fairly benign despite the increase in coverage and there
is no need to deviate from expecting a seasonable isolated heavy
rain threat at this time. Bulk shear will increase modestly to
15-25kts due to the increasing flow aloft associated with the
trough, and this could support an isolated severe thunderstorm
or two, but overall the threat is low. Expect temperatures on
Thursday to top out 1-4 degrees below normal with the increase in
cloud cover and precipitation coverage.
Behind the front, we may actually have a legitimate period
of below-normal temperatures as height falls support lower
thicknesses behind the trough axis and an upper-level closed low
dropping into New England amplifies a developing longwave trough
over the eastern ConUS. High temperatures may remain about 2-5
degrees below normal on Friday and Saturday in a NW flow regime.
Low-level flow may stay northerly through the end of the extended
and support a notable improvement in humidity as dewpoints drops
into the lower to mid-60s. The airmass will not be completely dry,
but lower PoPs are currently forecasted given the somewhat more
stable regime in place.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Moist profiles and light southerly boundary
layer flow will yield developing and persistent MVFR-level bases
through much of the morning hours, with IFR to LIFR conditions from
KAVL to KHKY. Slow lifting and scattering of the morning ceilings
will eventually permit instability to bubble up this afternoon, with
coverage growing more quickly in the mountains where forcing will be
better, but with scattered activity also across the foothills and
Piedmont where SBCAPE values will be higher. Will feature PROB30
TSRA throughout for the peak heating hours. Light winds will be a
bit variable, but mostly southerly at less than 10 kt during peak
afternoon mixing. Coverage should wane quickly this evening, but
isolated showers cannot be ruled out overnight in the continued
upslope flow in the moist airmass. Restrictions are likely to return
during the early morning hours Sunday.
Outlook: A typical summertime pattern of scattered diurnal showers
and thunderstorms is expected to persist through the late weekend
and into early/middle next week. Fog and low stratus may develop
each morning in the mountain valleys and wherever appreciable rain
fell the previous day.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...SBK
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 6, 4:36 AM EST, 10 hours 39 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
536 AM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022
NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-070945-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
536 AM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across the North Carolina mountains. Main potential impacts
are cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours
leading to the potential for localized flash flooding. This is
especially true for areas that received heavy rainfall yesterday.
A few strong storms are possible. An isolated severe storm or two
cannot be entirely ruled out. The main potential impact with any
severe storm that develops would be microbursts leading to damaging
wind gusts.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-070945-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
536 AM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Main potential impacts are cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours leading to the potential for localized
flash flooding. This is especially true for areas along and west of
Interstate 85 and for areas that received heavy rainfall yesterday.
A few strong storms are possible. An isolated severe storm or two
cannot be entirely ruled out. The main potential impact with any
severe storm that develops would be microbursts leading to damaging
wind gusts.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 6, 2:01 PM EST, 1 hour 14 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
301 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022
NCZ053-061930-
Buncombe NC-
301 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Buncombe
County through 330 PM EDT...
At 301 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Downtown Asheville, or near B.R. Parkway-Nc Arboretum To East
Asheville. This storm was nearly stationary.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Downtown Asheville, East Asheville, West Asheville, North Asheville,
Black Mountain, Woodfin, Swannanoa, Weaverville, Fairview In Buncombe
County and Biltmore Forest.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3569 8229 3547 8239 3548 8261 3570 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 183DEG 2KT 3556 8250
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
RWHSpecial weather statement, Aug 6, 2:08 PM EST, 1 hour 7 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
308 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022
NCZ052-059-063-064-061945-
Transylvania NC-Haywood NC-Southern Jackson NC-Northern Jackson NC-
308 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central
Transylvania, east central Jackson and southeastern Haywood Counties
through 345 PM EDT...
At 308 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southeast of Waynesville, or near Black Balsam Area, moving
northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
B.R. Parkway-Black Balsam To Mount Pisgah, Graveyard Fields, Looking
Glass, B.R. Parkway-Balsam Gap To Black Balsam Area, Black Balsam
Area, Mount Pisgah, Balsam Grove, Cruso, Wolf Mountain and Sunburst.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3513 8293 3530 8312 3553 8289 3534 8266
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 226DEG 7KT 3533 8292
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
RWHSpecial weather statement, Aug 6, 2:14 PM EST, 1 hour 1 minute before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
314 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022
SCZ014-061945-
Chester SC-
314 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Chester
County through 345 PM EDT...
At 314 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles west of Lancaster, or near Richburg, moving north at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Fort Lawn, Richburg, Fishing Creek Reservoir, Great Falls and
Edgemoor.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3467 8089 3465 8089 3464 8090 3462 8089
3460 8089 3459 8088 3460 8109 3482 8113
3481 8089 3479 8088 3475 8088 3470 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 184DEG 5KT 3467 8098
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
RWHSpecial weather statement, Aug 6, 2:20 PM EST, 55 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
320 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022
NCZ071-082-061945-
Union NC-Mecklenburg NC-
320 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Mecklenburg
and west central Union Counties through 345 PM EDT...
At 320 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Indian Land, or near The Arboretum, moving north
at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Uptown Charlotte, Central Charlotte, South Charlotte, Southwest
Charlotte, East Charlotte, Northwest Charlotte, Matthews, Weddington,
Stallings and Pineville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3500 8069 3501 8084 3511 8094 3510 8094
3528 8101 3532 8099 3530 8068 3527 8066
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 184DEG 5KT 3508 8079
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
RWHSpecial weather statement, Aug 6, 2:41 PM EST, 34 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
341 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022
NCZ052-064-065-062015-
Transylvania NC-Haywood NC-Henderson NC-
341 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Transylvania, southwestern Henderson and southeastern Haywood
Counties through 415 PM EDT...
At 341 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brevard, moving north at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Brevard, Etowah, Looking Glass, Dupont State Forest, Mount Pisgah,
Mountain Home, Mills River, Horse Shoe, Cruso and Penrose.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3517 8263 3521 8285 3544 8283 3537 8251
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 195DEG 7KT 3527 8272
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
RWHSpecial weather statement, Aug 6, 2:56 PM EST, 19 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
356 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022
NCZ036-056-069>071-062030-
Gaston NC-Iredell NC-Lincoln NC-Mecklenburg NC-Catawba NC-
356 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Catawba, eastern Lincoln, south central Iredell, northwestern
Mecklenburg and northeastern Gaston Counties through 430 PM EDT...
At 356 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Huntersville, or near Westport, moving north at 5
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Huntersville, Cornelius, Mt Holly, Westport, Lake Norman, Denver,
Ramsey Creek Park, Maiden, Davidson and Northwest Charlotte.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3534 8084 3528 8104 3558 8120 3566 8088
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 162DEG 6KT 3548 8099
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
RWH