Arizona, 2022Flash Flood and Dust Storm in Arizona, August 6, 2022
August 6, 2022 · NWS TWC · 5 events in 4 counties and zones
Thunderstorms moved west across southeast Arizona during the evening and overnight hours. Lines of storms produced wind damage near Elfrida and McNeal with severe gusts in Tucson and a dust storm in Pinal County that stopped traffic on Interstate 10.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
Open the live radar over this ground
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- $100,000
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 5
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Thunderstorms moved west across southeast Arizona during the evening and overnight hours. Lines of storms produced wind damage near Elfrida and McNeal with severe gusts in Tucson and a dust storm in Pinal County that stopped traffic on Interstate 10. Heavy rain also produced flash flooding in Nogales.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 6, 3:27 PM MST, 2 hours 28 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 6, 3:27 PM MST, 2 hours 28 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
327 PM MST Sat Aug 6 2022
.SYNOPSIS...A more favorable flow pattern for daily thunderstorms
will develop Sunday and persist through this coming week as the
upper high becomes centered over the Four Corners region. Daytime
temperature will remain near seasonable readings.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The upper-pattern is defined by a high pressure area
centered over NW Kansas with a ridge axis extending to the southwest
into SW Arizona...and an impressive inverted trough (as evidenced
with a beautiful swirl on the Water Vapor Satellite imagery) over
western portions of Texas.
Today/tonight is a transition day as the upper ridge axis continues
to lift north...allowing for the inverted trough to move west toward
SE Arizona. Although confidence is moderately high that Sunday will
be an active day across the entire forecast area, sometimes the
transition days can sneak up on us with stronger storms than
expected. In this case, the nose of the inverted trough doesn't
really begin to impact our neck of the woods until late this
evening/overnight...out of phase with peak surface
heating. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few storms get a bit frisky
this evening along the Arizona/Mexico border but confidence
is low with the coverage and intensity of the storms this
afternoon/tonight. It may be a situation that the majority
of the storm activity occurs after midnight with the increased
instability aloft.
The more favorable location tonight will be further south in Sonora
Mexico where a large complex is expected to develop. This system
will be important because it will help initiate a surge of
moisture to quickly move northward up the Gulf of California and
spill into the lower deserts of Arizona Sunday morning giving us a
key ingredient for heavy rainfall Sunday across the western
portions of the forecast area.
The inverted trough eventually moves into Southeast Arizona Sunday
afternoon...and is looking to be quite impactful for the region. The
dynamics associated with this feature, along with stronger shear and
the overall increase of surface moisture will result in enhanced
thunderstorm activity across all of Southeast Arizona, with a more
elevated potential for severe thunderstorms and/or flash flooding
over the typical Monsoon day.
The 12z SPC HREF (High Resolution Ensemble Forecast) has latched
onto a strong solution for our neck of the woods with a sustained
potential for wind gusts in excess of 50 kts from Tucson west Sunday
evening. This helps increase my confidence that we will experience
widespread blowing dust issues across Pima and Southeast Pinal
counties...including the potential for a Haboob formation.
In addition to the wind and blowing dust threat, the 12z SPC HREF 24
hour QPF LPMM or localized probability matched mean for 24 hour QPF
amounts indicated a large area between 1 and 2 inches of
rainfall tomorrow across Santa Cruz and Pima county. Given the
saturated soils across the area, this makes the potential
for flash flooding much greater. Ina ny event, tomorrow will be an
active and busy day.
Otherwise, rain chances will continue to be elevated this coming
week as a more favorable flow pattern develops with the upper high
becoming centered over the Four Corners region. Daytime temperatures
will remain near seasonable readings after today.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 08/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 7k-10k ft AGL, with the clouds slowing diminishing
after midnight MST. SCTD SHRA/TSRA primarily between 06/23Z and
07/05Z. CIGS may briefly lower to 4k-6k ft AGL with the TSRA, along
with mountain obscurations and wind gusts to 40+ kts. Otherwise, SFC
wind generally less than 12 kts, favoring a NWLY/NLY direction
during the afternoon hours and variable in direction at other times.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...An active monsoon period is expected to continue
through the coming week, with daily rounds of scattered showers
and thunderstorms. The typical threats of strong gusty winds and
heavy rainfall remain, as well as the potential for precipitation
outside the normal afternoon/evening cycles. Wind trends are
otherwise light following a diurnal pattern.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
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Event by event
3 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood, 1 dust storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm Wind, Cochise
- When
- August 6, 5:55 PM MST
- Where
- Cochise County, 11.33 mi WNW of Paradise
- Measured
- 56 kt (64 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Mesonet
- Coordinates
- 32.009, -109.389
Gust to 64 mph was measured by Desert Research Institute sensor in northwest Chiricahua Mountains.
Thunderstorm Wind, Cochise
- When
- August 6, 6:20 PM MST to 6:55 PM MST
- Where
- Cochise County, 1.5 mi NNE of Elfrida to 3.37 mi WNW of Double Abode
- Measured
- 61 kt (70 mph) estimated gust
- Property damage
- $100,000
- Reported by
- Law Enforcement
- Coordinates
- 31.700, -109.670
Thunderstorm winds downed or snapped multiple power poles in the Elfrida and McNeal areas. One house, one barn and one garage also suffered substantial roof damage.
Flash Flood, Santa Cruz
- When
- August 6, 8:00 PM MST to 8:45 PM MST
- Where
- Santa Cruz County, 0.25 mi NE of Nogales to 0.28 mi ESE of Nogales
- Cause
- Heavy Rain
- Reported by
- Social Media
- Coordinates
- 31.353, -110.928
Heavy rain in Nogales, Sonora caused a rapid rise in Nogales Wash, causing it to overtop its banks and flood the Doe St. Bridge.
Thunderstorm Wind, Pima
- When
- August 6, 9:10 PM MST to 9:23 PM MST
- Where
- Pima County, 8.3 mi E of (Dma)davis Monthan A to (Tus)tucson Intl Arp
- Measured
- 52 kt (60 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- ASOS
- Coordinates
- 32.183, -110.739
A thunderstorms outflow gust to 60 mph was measured at KTUS at 2110MST. A thunderstorm gust 60 mph was measured in east Tucson at 2123MST.
Dust Storm, South Central Pinal County
- When
- August 6, 10:35 PM MST to 11:15 PM MST
- Where
- South Central Pinal County forecast zone
- Reported by
- Social Media
- Coordinates
- 32.904, -111.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Thunderstorm outflow winds resulted in a dust storm across south central Pinal County. Traffic on Interstate 10 was halted in both directions due to visibilities less than 100 feet.
- Thunderstorm Wind
- Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.
- Flash Flood
- Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.
- Dust Storm
- Blowing dust that reduced visibility to a quarter mile or less.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Heat in Arizona, August 6 to 8, 20226 deaths · 5 events
- Damaging Wind in Nebraska, August 6, 2022$400,000 · 61 kt wind · 1 event
- Damaging Wind in Missouri, August 6, 2022$100,000 · 50 kt wind · 1 event
- Damaging Winds in North Carolina, August 6, 2022$50,000 · 50 kt wind · 3 events
- Damaging Winds and Lightning Strikes in Virginia, August 6, 2022$33,000 · 50 kt wind · 5 events
- Flash Flood in Indiana, August 6, 2022$30,000 · 1 event
- Damaging Wind and Heavy Rain in Iowa, August 6 to 7, 202252 kt wind · 17 events
- Flash Flooding and Debris Flow in Kentucky, August 6, 20229 events
- Excessive Heat and Heat in Wisconsin, August 6, 20229 events
- Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Colorado, August 6, 202276 kt wind · 9 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Alabama, August 6, 2022$3,000 · 1.25 in hail · 7 events
- Flash Flooding and Hail in Kentucky, August 6 to 7, 20221 in hail · 6 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1053687, 1053686, 1053694, 1053692, 1053696.