Hail in North Carolina, August 30, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
241 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the region tonight with scattered showers and
thunderstorms coming to an end this evening. The passage of the
front will allow drier air to dominate through Friday. Active
weather returns just in time for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 PM: Convection has been slower to develop than previously
indicated, and with less coverage. Think that the atmosphere will
eventually catch up to the forecast, though, so a likely prob
is still indicated over the mtns/foothills. At the same time,
think that model guidance has the right idea in keeping more of
a scattered coverage east of the Blue Ridge into the early part
of the evening. A few thunderstorms have developed in northeast
TN but look like garden-variety. The latest mesoanalysis shows a
modest 1500-3000 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE across the mtns ahead of
the short wave/sfc boundary, and weak shear moving past more to
the north. The 12Z run of the HREF shows updrafts a bit more robust
across Upstate SC and northeast GA early this evening, so we won't
rule out a few strong/severe cells, but by and in large the CAMs are
only weakly organized and depict a relatively benign-looking band
of convection. Guidance takes the deep convection off to our east by
late evening. No reason to think the Day 1 Convective Outlook would
be in error in keeping the better severe potential to our north.

Over the next 12-24 hours, the axis of a mid/upper trof will cross
the region as a short wave plows east from the OH/TN valleys,
then across the mtns this evening, and offshore around daybreak
Wednesday. The short wave should drive a sfc boundary across
the fcst area later this evening and then east of the area in
the pre-dawn hours, taking the remnants of convection along with
it. This will not be a sharp change, so another round of mtn valley
fog can be expected around daybreak Wednesday. High pressure will
build in behind the front on Wednesday on a deep NW flow aloft,
but temps won't change much. Downslope flow east of the mtns will
allow highs to climb a few degrees above normal once again. We
should notice a difference in the humidity, however, with dewpoints
mixing down into the lower 60s and perhaps even upper 50s in the
afternoon as the drier air mass filters in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Tuesday: A weak version of the subtropical ridge
develops over the SE CONUS Thursday into Friday. Surface high
pressure builds into the area from the NW Thursday and moves slowly
east on Friday. A dry and stable air mass is associated with this
high; however, the air mass is not cooler as thickness values show
little change. Weak easterly to southerly low level flow may develop
on Friday as the center of the high moves off the New England coast.
That said, the forecast soundings show little in the way of
increasing instability as warm mid level temps remain in place.
Continued the dry forecast for Thursday but undercut the guidance
blend PoP for Friday given these conditions. Have only a small
chance of diurnal convection west of the French Broad Valley south
into the Upper Savannah River Valley. This may even end up too high
if the current trends continue. Highs will be above normal both days
with lows near to just below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Tuesday: A weak version of the subtropical ridge
remains over the SE CONUS through Sunday. A few weak short waves are
able to move through/around the ridge and over or near the area.
Surface high pressure off the coast of New England remains in place
through Sunday as well. This causes the creation of a weak easterly
to southerly low level return flow. Despite a slow increase in
moisture, instability remains muted. There is some weak forcing
though, so diurnal convective chance slowly increases with coverage
favoring the mountains each day. That said, the guidance blend is
still too high given these conditions, so have undercut the blend
once again. Temps will be near to slightly above normal through
Sunday.

The pattern changes Monday into Tuesday as the ridge weakens and a
stronger short wave digs a trough over the eastern CONUS. The short
wave pushes a front toward the area from the northwest both days.
The global models show timing and strength differences with these
features. Therefore, have again kept PoP in the chance range for
now. That said, PoP has the potential to be higher one or both of
these days depending on how the features shake out. The good news is
this should help keep any potential tropical cyclone from affecting
our area. Temps will be near to slightly below normal both days.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Prevailing VFR through the period outside
the mtns. The main concern will be the passage of a short wave
aloft and weak sfc front this evening. Ahead of these features, a
ragged band of showers and storms is expected to develop that could
briefly reduce the ceiling/visibility to the MVFR category. This
will be handled with a TEMPO at all terminals with the timing
reflective of the CAMs. A wind shift will accompany the storms,
at least briefly to the WNW, but the direction may come back around
to WSW outside the mtns for awhile until the actual front crosses
later this evening. Not much strong flow behind the boundary, so
the mtns will most likely see another round of low stratus/fog that
could at least briefly bring a LIFR restriction in the pre-dawn
hours. Elsewhere...VFR with only a few cirrus...then a light N or
NNE wind on Wednesday as high pressure builds in.

Outlook: Drier air and mostly VFR conditions are expected for the
latter half of the work week.  Fog and low stratus are possible
each morning across the mountain valleys. Moisture will increase
from the south and west over the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
441 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-310845-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
441 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. Cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy
rainfall will be possible with most storms. One or two storms may
produce damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
402 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

NCZ035-056-502-302045-
Greater Caldwell NC-Alexander NC-Catawba NC-
402 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Catawba, southern Alexander and southeastern Caldwell Counties
through 445 PM EDT...

At 402 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Lenoir, or 5 miles southeast of Cedar Rock, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lenoir, Taylorsville, Bethlehem, Cedar Rock, Lake Hickory, Claremont,
St. Stephens, Lookout Shoals Lake, Stony Point and Hudson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3588 8105 3579 8110 3578 8111 3577 8111
      3571 8114 3589 8156 3600 8146
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 296DEG 20KT 3590 8138

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
416 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

GAZ017-302045-
Habersham GA-
416 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN
HABERSHAM COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 416 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
torrential rainfall 10 miles northwest of Homer, or over Alto, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Baldwin, Alto and Raoul.

Rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3453 8358 3449 8352 3449 8355 3445 8359
      3445 8360 3444 8361 3445 8361 3448 8365
      3449 8365
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 311DEG 8KT 3446 8359

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
422 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

SCZ101-104-302045-
Greater Oconee SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
422 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Oconee
County through 445 PM EDT...

At 422 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles north of Walhalla, or near Salem, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Walhalla, Salem, Oconee State Park and Lake Keowee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Lake Keowee, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3470 8303 3487 8311 3493 8301 3484 8290
      3481 8290 3481 8289 3479 8288 3478 8288
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 318DEG 9KT 3485 8303

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
428 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

NCZ065-509-510-302100-
Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
428 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Henderson and northwestern Polk Counties through 500 PM EDT...

At 428 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Hendersonville, or 7 miles north of Saluda, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dana, Edneyville and Lake Adger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3535 8241 3541 8233 3532 8217 3523 8229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 314DEG 9KT 3534 8233

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
448 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

NCZ056-504-302130-
Greater Burke NC-Catawba NC-
448 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Catawba and east
central Burke Counties through 530 PM EDT...

At 447 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hickory, or near Mountain View, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Conover, Longview, Maiden, Hildebran,
Claremont, and Catawba.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3575 8108 3571 8106 3571 8101 3555 8110
      3555 8116 3566 8151 3576 8140 3576 8138
      3577 8137 3577 8136 3579 8135
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 289DEG 20KT 3570 8135

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
451 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

SCZ010-104-302115-
Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-
451 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Anderson and southeastern Oconee Counties through 515 PM EDT...

At 451 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles west of Seneca, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Seneca, Walhalla, Lake Hartwell, Townville and Oakway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Lake Hartwell, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 8314 3483 8304 3468 8285 3467 8285
      3465 8284 3465 8283 3464 8283 3464 8285
      3463 8285 3462 8284 3465 8281 3463 8278
      3450 8292
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 313DEG 24KT 3471 8303

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

LANE