A series of weak low pressure areas traversed along a cold front that moved across northern NY during the early morning hours of March 12th. Rain/snow mixed developed in the early morning hours changing to snow before sunrise and continuing until early afternoon.
Every event with a place to put it; 9 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BTV wrote it up.
A series of weak low pressure areas traversed along a cold front that moved across northern NY during the early morning hours of March 12th. Rain/snow mixed developed in the early morning hours changing to snow before sunrise and continuing until early afternoon. Snowfall amounts ranged from several inches along the St. Lawrence Valley and Canadian border to 6 to 12 inches in the higher terrain of the eastern Adirondacks.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Burlington, VT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 12, 12:36 AM EST, 2 hours 24 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1236 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A potent storm system will impact the region tonight through
Saturday night with moderate to heavy snow and blowing snow
expected. Gusty winds are expected Saturday night and Sunday morning
as well which will create areas of blowing snow and possibly some
power outages. Winds will abate Sunday afternoon with a warming
trend expected through next week and temperatures approaching 60
degrees by the end of the week. No significant precipitation events
are expected after the Saturday snowstorm.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1215 AM EST Saturday...Quite the interesting synoptic
setup this morning with a warm front draped across northern NEw
York leading to a wide variety of temperatures. For example,
Burlington is currently 41 degrees while Plattsburgh is 31 on
the other side of the lake (and warm front). A cold front will
be moving into the St. Lawrence Valley over the next few hours
and should help shift this warm front eastward and allow for
temperatures to rapidly cool across western Vermont prior to
daybreak. Some light rain appears likely in the Champlain Valley
but will quickly change to snow based on the frontal placement.
We modified temps, precip, QPF and snow for this update to
account for the current trends with only minor changes to the
forecast. It's time to sit back and watch the event unfold.
Previous Discussion...Unless you live under a rock, you've
likely read about this storm several times over the past few
days. So with that in mind, I'm going to skip a lot of the
synoptic overview and mesoscale details this afternoon and just
get down to brass tacks and talk about what's changed, the
expected amounts, and impacts.
So what's changed. Synoptically not much. Trends from
yesterdays guidance for a delayed phasing of a northern stream
trough and southern stream energy continued into the 00Z NWP
model suite, and with the 12Z runs everything is basically
locked into the slightly eastward shift we talked about
yesterday. But now that we're into the wheelhouse of higher
resolutions models, we're able to put some more detail into the
forecast, specifically the QPF which is good and bad if you're a
snow lover or not. Since I'm a snow lover, I'm going to say
more snow is good, less is bad.
So where are the goods? Eastern Vermont and the northwest slopes of
the Green Mountains continue to be the bullseye for moderate to
heavy snow as low/mid-level frontogenetical forcing will be maximized
here Saturday afternoon within the northwest quadrant of the surface
low bombing out over Cape Cod. This is shown nicely in the SPC HREF
snowfall rates which highlights several hours of 1-2"/hr from about
noon through 4 PM. Additionally, when the flow shifts to the
northwest Saturday evening and overnight, favorable blocking will
allow upslope snow to persist and decrease in density adding on
additional accumulations into Sunday morning. A widespread 8-14" is
expected across this area, with locally up to 20" across the higher
peaks from Appalachian Gap to the Canadian border.
And what about the bad you ask? Well, based on the latest trends
we've had to adjust QPF and subsequent snowfall amounts down the St.
Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. For the St. Lawrence, with the
eastward low track and a tighter precipitation gradient it's only
looking like about a half inch of QPF there for the event, resulting
in snow totals of around 6" to maybe 8" where the terrain begins to
slope upward to the Adirondacks. In the Champlain Valley, a faster
shift to northwesterly flow results in some downsloping and also
lower QPF of about 1/3 to 2/3 of an inch. The greatest downsloping
will occur on the NY side of the valley and in Grand Isle county
where storm total snow will range from 6-8", while 6-10" is more
likely on the VT side.
Finally, the bad for everywhere will be the winds. As snowfall
begins to taper off from west to east Saturday evening gusty winds
will develop as a strong low-level jet materializes over the region
and the atmosphere becomes deeply mixed. Forecast soundings continue
to indicate mean mixed layer winds of 30-40kts resulting in surface
gusts at a minimum of 30 mph and more likely closer to 40 mph for
many locations. Blowing snow will become a big concern for those
traveling Saturday evening through Sunday morning given these
conditions and for a short period late Saturday afternoon into the
evening dare I say near blizzard conditions may be seen with
visibility less than a half mile. Power outages also remain a
concern, especially across the lower Connecticut River Valley where
heavy wet snow will be seen but based on the latest trends of
lighter snow for the latter half of the event, thinking only
isolated outages look more likely now.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 319 PM EST Friday...Quiet and cool for Sunday. Winds are
expected to remain breezy out of the northwest, but will gradually
decline. Pockets of blowing snow will likely continue early in the
day before tapering towards the high terrain. Late in the day as
mid-level ridging shifts east, we will start to moderate, but
temperatures will generally struggle to rise out of the 20s during
the day. Overnight, conditions will likely not cool very much, with
overnight lows in the teens to lower 20s, and closer to mid 20s in
the southern St. Lawrence Valley. A pocket of better moisture
shifts into the region overnight, and with some upglide from
warm advection, some spotty snow showers could develop. Amounts,
if any, should not amount to more than a half inch of
accumulation.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 319 PM EST Friday...The extended forecast begins with continued
moderation amidst south to southwesterly flow. Temperatures will
climb into the 40s on Monday, ahead of a cold front taking shape
across Canada. It may be a bit on the breezy side, with southwest
winds 10 to 15 mph and a few gusts to 25 mph, but weather conditions
seem pleasant enough.
Monday night into early Tuesday, a cold front will shift south
across the region. Forecast trends have been to show a more
consolidated boundary. Given the warmth preceding it, precipitation
will likely start as rain, but since the boundary is coming through
overnight, we may be able to mix in some snow, mainly across high
terrain, as forecast soundings do not depict much of a warm layer
aloft. Precipitation should wind down sometime mid-morning
to early afternoon Tuesday. The airmass behind the front is not
much colder, but we could be looking at a non-diurnal temperature
trend, hovering around the mid 30s across northern New York,
warming into the lower 40s across southern Vermont ahead of the
front, and then gradually sinking back into the teens to mid 20s
overnight.
All is on track for a large scale warm up for the later half of the
week. Thursday 925 hPa temperatures will warm to near 10 C. With an
upper low to our south, and surface low across James Bay in Canada,
it looks like we will be in a narrow pocket of subsidence between
these two features. It seems likely that we will rise into the mid
to upper 50s. As we draw nearer and get a better sense of cloud
cover, we can see whether or not we have a few locations reach 60.
As we head into the next weekend, there are some timing differences
with regard to the next system. If it's slow to arrive, Friday could
end up being warmer than Thursday. If it's quick to arrive, then
Friday will be a few degrees cooler, and with scattered
precipitation associated with a cold front will be possible, but
nothing overly impactful stands out with this feature. It seems the
more interesting system could be what follows beyond the forecast
range.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z SUNDAY...IFR conditions will overspread the North
Country around 12Z as snowfall continues to advance eastward.
Ceilings are already dropping to 800 ft at KMSS and this will
likely be the standard as snowfall begins at all terminals.
Temperatures are all over the place this morning with 40s in
Vermont and 30s in New York. This may lead to a brief shot of
rain at the onset of precipitation but should quickly change to
snow. Gusty winds will develop this afternoon and lead to very
low visibilities which will likely bring many terminals down to
1/4SM for several hours. Snow will taper off after 00Z but BLSN
will continue to keep IFR visibilities around although we will
see steady improvement to our ceilings.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for NYZ026>031-034-
035-087.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Clay/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...ClayHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Burlington VT 328 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-120830- Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton- Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence- 328 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. VTZ001>012-016>019-120830- Grand Isle-Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden- Lamoille-Caledonia-Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland- Windsor-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison- Eastern Rutland- 328 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 winter weather, 4 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches were common across the area.
Snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches were common across the area.
Snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches were common across the area.
Snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches were common across the area.
Snowfall accumulations of 2 to 5 inches were common.
Snowfall accumulations of 2 to 5 inches were common.
Snowfall accumulations of 2 to 5 inches were common.
Snowfall accumulations of 2 to 5 inches were common.
Snowfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches were common.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, March 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1004226, 1004227, 1004228, 1004229, 1004231, 1004232, 1004233, 1004234, 1004235.