Isolated thunderstorms developed along a weak lake breeze boundary over the western Southern Tier during the peak heating of the day. One stronger thunderstorm produced several reports of wind damage in Cattaraugus county.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BUF wrote it up.
Isolated thunderstorms developed along a weak lake breeze boundary over the western Southern Tier during the peak heating of the day. One stronger thunderstorm produced several reports of wind damage in Cattaraugus county.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 23, 1:56 PM EST, 1 hour 39 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 256 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm and humid weather will continue into Sunday. The risk for showers and thunderstorms will increase Sunday afternoon and Sunday night with the threat for strong storms and locally heavy rainfall. Cooler and drier conditions arrive for Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Cirrus layer expanding across the area this afternoon north of convective complex pushing southeast through Ohio. This cloud cover has helped hold temperatures down just a bit, but still able to reach well into the 80s, with some lower 90s across portions of the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes. Still expecting some weak convection to develop this afternoon into the early evening hours, mainly focused along lake breezes. Any convection that develops will weaken and fade in typical fashion with the decreasing diurnal heating early tonight, leaving the remainder of the overnight hours dry. Sunday starts with the potential for some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to cross western New York. Coverage and intensity of this activity is hard to predict at this point as the expectation is for an upstream convective complex to be weakening as it approaches. Whatever convection is around to start the day should lift off to the north as a surface warm front pushes through. It will be another very warm to hot day with most temperatures reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s, warmest across the Genesee valley and Finger Lakes. Heat index values for these areas could reach the mid 90s. A gusty southwest wind off Lake Erie will likely shadow most of the Niagara Frontier Sunday afternoon. However, farther inland there will be pockets of moderate to strong instability ahead of approaching pre-frontal through. Favorable shear profiles will be in place with a strong mid level jet across the area. This will support organized convective with the potential for strong to severe storms with damaging winds and heavy rain the main threats. The main cold front will cross the region early Sunday night. A band of showers and thunderstorms will develop upstream along this feature and start to work into the area late Sunday evening, then carry eastward through the overnight hours. Favorable shear profiles will still be in place, so there will be an additional risk for strong to severe storm Sunday night along with the potential for heavy rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will be exiting to the south and east of the eastern Great Lakes region Monday morning. The strongest convection will be well ahead of the frontal boundary however strong surface convergence and moisture along the front will still pose a risk of a few showers and an isolated thunderstorm across the western Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region through mid- morning. Weak cold air advection will occur through the afternoon while dry air also moves into the region. Diurnal instability will be low however a cumulus field will likely develop with enhancement south of Lake Ontario. This could bring a few showers through the afternoon. Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Surface high pressure will build across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through Tuesday night. Dry and comfortable weather expected. Lows with fall to the mid 50s Monday night and Tuesday night while highs reach the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday with low humidity. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Active weather for a sizable portion of the long term as a mid-level trough initially over northwestern Ontario Province Wednesday pivots through the Great Lakes by Friday evening. Wednesday will start off mainly dry, with increasing cloud cover and chances for some isolated showers from the west in the afternoon as a ridge of high pressure slides eastward towards the New England coast. A warm front tied to the deepening surface low across Ontario will then lift through the Lower Lakes and New England Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms in tow. Still a good deal of variance among the long range guidance on the details, but a lack of upper level support with generally unfavorable diurnal timing of the warm front should help limit thunderstorm coverage. The mid-level low will eject northeast from eastern Ontario to northern Quebec Thursday night and Friday, which will send a cold front through the region from the west. A pre-frontal trough on Thursday will maintain chances for showers/thunderstorms throughout the day. Though the cold front will clear the area by Friday morning, active weather may persist until the main trough axis finally swings through the eastern Great Lakes Friday evening. Surface high pressure building in its wake leaving us with mainly dry weather for Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures will be on the warmer side to start the period Wednesday with mid 80s and increasing humidity. Conditions will become more comfortable by the end of the week with the passage of the cold front Friday. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Gusts up to 20-25kts with the highest gusts northeast of Lake Erie (KIAG/KBUF.) High clouds will continue to traverse the region while cumulus develop inland from the lakes and along lake breeze boundaries mainly across the western Southern Tier. A few showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible mainly getting close to KJHW this afternoon. Showers will diminish in coverage into this evening with dry conditions expected elsewhere through most of tonight. An active period begins Sunday with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. A complex of thunderstorms over southern Minnesota this afternoon will track east towards western NY through tonight. Model guidance depicts this system to weaken but reach western NY Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are possible however severity potential is low. Sub- VFR conditions are possible. This system will cross western NY Sunday morning and breezy conditions will begin especially northeast of the Lakes by Sunday afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kts possible. Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Outlook... Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday...VFR but with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thursday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms likely. && .MARINE... Winds are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory levels into Sunday morning, but winds will be strong enough on both Lakes Erie and Ontario to produce choppy wave action. Winds will likely increase further on Sunday with the approach of a cold front, possibly producing a round of Small Craft Advisory conditions on both lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...PP AVIATION...HSK MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 358 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022 NYZ001-002-007-008-010>012-019>021-085-240800- Niagara-Orleans-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming- Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- 358 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the main hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ003>006-013-014-240800- Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Livingston-Ontario- 358 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Heat index values may reach the mid to upper 90s on Sunday. There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the main hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-240800- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 358 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. Isolated damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the main hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf JLA
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
359 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022
NYZ019-020-085-232045-
Chautauqua NY-Cattaraugus NY-Southern Erie NY-
359 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022
...Strong thunderstorms will cross parts of the Southern
Tier late this afternoon...
At 357 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking several strong
thunderstorms over Chautauqua county and also over northwest
Pennsylvania., One particularly strong storm was near Fredonia. All
of the activity is moving to the northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and localized heavy rain.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Jamestown, Olean, Dunkirk, Fredonia, Salamanca, Allegany State Park,
Boston, Eden, Springville, Colden, Westfield, Lakewood, Gowanda,
Silver Creek, Falconer, Ashford, Allegany, Franklinville, Mayville
and Clymer.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 90 between exits 61 and 58.
Interstate 86 between exits 4 and 26.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms passes.
&&
LAT...LON 4226 7976 4272 7879 4250 7844 4200 7842
4200 7976
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 243DEG 27KT 4244 7903
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
RSHThe Buffalo radar (KBUF), 78 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:32 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple trees were downed across Little Valley, Ellicottville and Franklinville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1046203.