High Wind in New Mexico, May 21, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
829 PM MDT Sat May 21 2022

.UPDATE...
Upgraded to a High Wind Warning for the Middle Rio Grande Valley
including Albuquerque. Now a 10 mb difference in surface pressure
between ABQ and CQC. METMOS seems to be doing quite well, whereas
the MAVMOS is playing catchup. The hourly GFS LAMP guidance is more
aligned with the MET. Almost lost sight of the Sandia Mountains from
the Sunport in dust, and received a report of blowing dust dropping
the visibility below 1 mile on I-25 just north of Bernalillo about
sunset. The High Wind Warning mentions visibility below 1 mile at
times, especially below Tijeras Canyon where winds should be the
strongest. MOS guidance generally agrees on the strongest winds from
midnight until around 3 AM MDT, with speeds gradually decreasing
thereafter.

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.PREV DISCUSSION...708 PM MDT Sat May 21 2022...
.UPDATE...
The strong east wind pushed into the central valley earlier than
expected, so we bumped up the start time of the Wind Advisory.

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.PREV DISCUSSION...605 PM MDT Sat May 21 2022...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A Strong east canyon wind will continue to blow into the central
valley tonight including KSKX, KSAF, KAEG, KABQ, and KF37
(Carrizozo). The strongest wind gusts will approach 50 KT at KABQ.
Increasing low level moisture in easterly upslope flow will result in
MVFR and low VFR conditions in low clouds across northeast and east
central areas overnight into Sunday morning. Gusty south and
southwest winds are expected Sunday afternoon.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...307 PM MDT Sat May 21 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will push through the central mountains this
evening through the overnight hours, producing strong canyon winds.
As a result, a Wind Advisory is in effect for the Rio Grande Valley
through the Upper Tularosa Valley below canyons where wind gusts up
50 mph will be possible. Be alert for sudden crosswinds. Winds will
weaken on Sunday, although may be strong enough for hazardous fire
weather conditions across west central New Mexico for the afternoon.
A welcome pattern change is expected for Monday and Tuesday as low
level moisture invades the eastern plains. Storms will likely be a
threat across the northern mountains and along the dry line on both
days. Even a few strong to possibly severe storms may develop, with
the best chances on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Drier weather is
likely for Wednesday with above normal readings returning Thursday
through the weekend. Unfortunately, stronger winds will return with
widespread critical fire weather conditions on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
Satellite imagery this afternoon depicts the broad upper-level
trough to our north across the central Rockies. This cold storm
system has been responsible for snow across portions of CO today,
and some of this has been skirting the northern NM border.
Unfortunately, it's only been very light flurries or sprinkles that
are having little if any impact. And that is expected to be the
trend through tonight as the broad troughing pattern stays in place
to our north, helping to generate low impact showers along the NM/CO
border and mountain peaks. Meanwhile, the backdoor cold front that
moved into the RGV last night has been gradually mixing out early
the afternoon and should continue to retreat over the next few
hours. However, it will be reinforced tonight and surge through the
RGV again and even make a run towards the Continental Divide by early
Sunday morning. As it does so, the east canyon wind will strengthen,
likely resulting in windy conditions below Tijeras Canyon and across
eastern portions of the ABQ and SAF metro areas. Did opt to expand
tonight's Wind Advisory to include the SAF zone as well the lower RGV
and Upper Tularosa Valley zone where model guidance is depicting
advisory level speeds primarily between the hours of 03Z-12Z.

Cold air advection behind this front will result in cooler
temperatures in the middle and lower RGV Sunday. Temperatures will
remain well below normal across the east, but should see some
rebounding, especially across the northeast where cloud cover
shouldn't be quite as expansive as today. By Sunday afternoon,
surface winds across the east will veer and become southeasterly
which begins to allow low-level moisture to seep into the area. This
may result in very light showers or sprinkles across far eastern NM
Sunday night. Otherwise, strengthening southwesterly flow across
western NM will lead to breezy afternoon winds. 15

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
Longwave trough remains parked over NM on Monday as an embedded
shortwave feature originating from the PacNW dives into Colorado,
clipping northern NM. At the surface, low level return flow will
support moisture advection over the eastern plains that will also
be battling the drier westerlies across western/central NM. Based
on the latest GFS20, a fairly sharp dryline will setup across the
east central/southeast plains with SBCAPE values ranging from 500-
1500 J/kg. 0-6km bulk shear values during this time will be rather
meager (20-30kts) so pulse activity will likely be favored. With
steep mid-level lapse rates, large hail could be possible. In the
meantime, a backdoor front is posed to enter northeast NM. This is
expected to be another focus for storms as activity firing off the
higher terrain rolls eastward into the plains. Appears this front
could be convectively aided south/southwest Monday night, pushing
it against the ern slopes of the central mts and possibly creating
another gap wind event.

Tuesday will likely be the most active day of the week wrt tstorm
activity. Flow aloft will become more northwesterly with another
embedded shortwave progged to move across northern/eastern NM for
Tuesday afternoon through the overnight. A very sharp dryline will
evolve during this time across the high plains. With similar CAPE
values but higher 0-6km bulk shear (40-55 knots), there will be a
better opportunity for organized storms. Convection will likely be
a concern through Tues night. Weaker and drier northwest flow is
likely for Wednesday, ending the chances for precipitation. Upper
level ridge rolls across the state on Thursday. 500hPa heights are
progged to be about one standard deviation above normal, and this
will allow most areas to climb above seasonal averages.

Upr ridge rolls east of the area rather quickly for the late week
period as a trough carves its way into the Intermountain West. The
cluster analysis suggests several different possibilities wrt how
deep and progressive this feature will be. Regardless, NM will be
on the southern fringe of this trough, and we know what that means...
more wind and a return to widespread fire weather conditions. With
that said, opted to guide winds closer to the NBM 90th percentile.
DPorter

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

The backdoor cold front that moved through the area last night will
be reinforced tonight, moving through the RGV again and even towards
the Continental Divide. This will bring cooler temperatures farther
westward with below normal temperatures expected everywhere except
for the northwest highlands. It's also in this area where
southwesterly winds will strengthen Sunday afternoon, leading to
breezy afternoon conditions along with an unstable atmosphere. While
confidence is high in single digit RHs persisting in this area,
confidence is lower in whether or not wind speeds will be high
enough to result in widespread critical conditions. Thus, continued
the Fire Weather Watch for Sunday and will allow the next shift to
take a second look and make the call on if an upgrade will be
necessary. Return flow sets up across eastern NM Sunday afternoon,
helping to usher in better low-level moisture. This helps to set the
stage for afternoon thunderstorms east of the central mountain chain
both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Tuesday looks to provide the
best opportunity for wetting thunderstorms thanks to another moist
backdoor front. Dry northwest flow on Wednesday will lead to an
upper-level ridge on Thursday which warms temperatures back to above
normal. Friday and next weekend looks to bring yet another PacNW
storm system across the central Rockies, likely leading to
widespread windy conditions and a return to a critical fire weather
pattern. 15

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for the following zones...
NMZ218-220-225.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
the following zones... NMZ105.

High Wind Warning until 6 AM MDT Sunday for the following zones...
NMZ219.

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