Wildfire in New Mexico, June 1 to 30, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1136 PM MDT Tue May 31 2022

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
vFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except behind a
backdoor cold front at KLVS, KTCC and KROW where MVFR cigs are
forecast between 09Z and 13Z. Highest forecast confidence on MVFR
conditions are at KLVS and KTCC vs KROW. The backdoor cold front will
slide down the eastern plains overnight and bring a gusty east
canyon/gap wind to KABQ and KSAF going into Wednesday morning with
gusts to between 20-30kts possible. Thunderstorm probabilities are
low Wednesday afternoon, with KROW being the terminal most likely to
be impacted, followed by KLVS in the late afternoon or evening. Not
enough confidence though to put in TSRA yet. IFR CIGS and VSBYS will
probably develop east of the central mountain chain Wednesday tonight.

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.PREV DISCUSSION...335 PM MDT Tue May 31 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy to windy conditions were observed today, but overall wind
speeds were considerably less than the past few days. A shift in the
weather pattern is expected through the end of the work week with
cooler and more moist conditions impacting the eastern half of New
Mexico as a cold front arrives. Wind directions will shift more from
the northeast or east with some gusty conditions accompanying the
frontal passage in these eastern sections of the state. In fact,
winds will likely accelerate through gaps and canyons within central
New Mexico with gusts of 45 to perhaps 60 mph Wednesday night. The
increased moisture will lead to more clouds and higher rain chances,
particularly along and east of the central mountain chain Wednesday,
Thursday and Friday with Friday likely hosting the best chances for
measurable rainfall. A few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms
will also be possible each afternoon and evening. Drier and breezy
conditions will return this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
The leading edge of a weak backdoor front has edged its way into the
northeast plains today where northeasterly winds and dewpoints in
the 30s/40s lay. Further south along the TX border, southerly return
flow has brought higher 50s dewpoints into southeastern NM.
Meanwhile, central and western areas remain dry and warm with breezy
southerly winds. The boundary between these first two airmasses lays
from southeastern NM barely touching Roosevelt County northeastward
across the TX Panhandle. A stray afternoon storm, potentially strong
to severe, will favor this delineation today. Otherwise, PoPs are
nil through the evening.

The backdoor front surges south and west tonight pushing aside the
other aforementioned airmasses and likely squeezing through the gaps
of the central mountain chain spilling into the Rio Grande Valley.
Much cooler air and a more moisture rich airmass follows in its wake
through eastern NM with drier and warmer air holding onto western
NM. Light showers or sprinkles and low-level cloud cover will favor
the east-central and northeastern plains to start the day Wednesday.
Highs through east-central NM Wednesday will greatly depend on when
this cloud deck burns off. Chances for more robust convection will
lay along the southern and western edges of this backdoor boundary
Wednesday afternoon. In fact, higher SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg will
be less inhibited where clear skies will allow for faster
destabilization over the Caprock Wednesday afternoon. Combined with
35-40kts of 0-6km bulk shear, there is a slight risk from SPC of
severe thunderstorms favoring Curry, Roosevelt, and Chaves Counties.
While these storms will have heavier rainfall potential, drier and
more isolated convection will favor the eastern slopes of the
central mountain chain from Ruidoso northward through Clines Corners
and up the east slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Storm motions
will be toward the east.

While whatever moisture does spill into the Rio Grande Valley will
mix out Wednesday afternoon, the backdoor front will surge westward
again bringing very strong east canyon winds into Santa Fe and
Albuquerque. MOS guidance is currently showing high wind potential
in Albuquerque, and will go ahead and hoist a High Wind Watch for the
Middle Rio Grande Valley and ABQ Metro area Wednesday night.
Sustained winds reaching 40mph with peak gusts up to 60mph will be
possible for areas immediately below Tijeras Canyon to the ABQ
Sunport. These winds look to peak near the midnight hour before
tapering off into the start of the Long Term period.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
The stronger, reinforcing push of the front will set better moisture
(low 40's dewpoints) into central New Mexico for Thursday. After
reaching near or just beyond the Continental Divide early in the
morning, the front will retreat eastward slightly with surface winds
veering more southerly in the Rio Grande valley by Thursday
afternoon. Looking at Thursday afternoon forecast soundings,
unstable conditions will be present over central areas including the
Rio Grande and the central mountain chain, but LCL/CCL's appear quite
high, suggesting precipitation will have to fight a deep dry sub-
cloud layer that might minimize precipitation accumulation at the
surface. Dry thunderstorms were included on the western fringe of
where 10 to 20 percent POPs were included for Thursday, and going
into Thursday night the eastern plains should start to destabilize
more to keep 20 to 30 percent chance at play overnight.

Low level moisture would attempt to slosh westward to the Continental
Divide again early Friday morning, only to retreat back to the east
slopes of the central mountain chain by afternoon. This will not
necessarily improve rain chances in central zones, but eastern zones
would destabilize more with upper 40's to low 50's dewpoints holding
for scattered afternoon storm development. Southerly surface winds
will veer westerly at mid levels, keeping sufficient directional
shear in place along with a risk of a few strong to severe storms.

A drier westerly flow will become established this weekend with
moisture getting scoured eastward. A few high-based cumulus look
possible, but no precipitation is anticipated. Winds will climb into
the breezy category in most locations with a few areas reaching windy
levels while a lee-side surface low sets up each day. Another
backdoor cold front could flirt with eastern (at least northeastern)
zones into Monday and Tuesday of next week, but remaining areas look
to remain dry under the influence of westerly flow.

24/52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions have begun in the northeast
highlands at Las Vegas, still expected to expand northward toward
the Raton area. This will end this evening, replaced by much cooler
and more moisture rich air tonight into Wednesday morning through
eastern NM. Low clouds, and weak convection expected along and east
of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with more vigorous convection
along and east of the Gallinas and Sacramento Mountains. Strong to
potentially severe storms will favor the southeastern plains. The
backdoor front surges westward again bringing high winds through the
gaps of the central mountain chain Wednesday night and richer
moisture and higher recoveries to the continental divide Thursday
morning. This will bring chances for scattered convection with wider
wetting footprints to the Rio Grande Valley eastward Thursday
afternoon. It also brings the threat for flash flooding to the burn
scars along the central mountain chain to include the Cerro Pelado,
Hermit's Peak/Calf Canyon, Nogal, and McBride fires. Afternoon
convection shifts eastward Friday. Drier westerlies and the return
of elevated to critical fire weather arrives next weekend.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday night
for the following zones... NMZ219.

&&