Some drier low level air started moving into southern New Mexico, but modest mid level moisture remained across the area. Gusty winds and flash flooding were reported with the stronger storms that developed in Grant and Otero counties.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
Some drier low level air started moving into southern New Mexico, but modest mid level moisture remained across the area. Gusty winds and flash flooding were reported with the stronger storms that developed in Grant and Otero counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 23, 10:46 PM MST, 14 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1146 PM MDT Sat Jul 23 2022 .AVIATION 06Z UPDATE... A few outflow boundaries remain, keeping winds gusty at KTCS. Winds should continue to diminish for the next 1/2 hours, reaching SE APB 8kts. Skies generally SCT110/BKN250, but will fill in for KTCS after 12Z as VCTS/-RA move near the terminal. Chances for RA/VCTS will last thru 16Z. Scattered to numerous TS/RA will be seen after 19Z Sunday. Gusty outflow winds will be seen lasting through the end of the TAF period, with storm coverage becoming isolated to scattered after 03Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION...220 PM MDT Sat Jul 23 2022... .SYNOPSIS... Rain chances continue area wide this weekend with the best chances over the high terrain and west of the Rio Grande. Heavy rains and flash flooding are the main threats. Slightly cooler temperatures expected next week with highs closer to seasonal normals. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow... Currently, not much activity can be seen on the radar except for a few light to moderate showers across parts of the Gila Region and Hudspeth county. Looking at the satellite imagery, the cumulus family coverage is mainly over the eastern CWA plus the Gila Region. For tonight, any remaining showers and thunderstorms should diminish by around 3 AM. This is based on most of the Convective Allowing Models. However, both the GFS and the ECMWF suggest that showers and thunderstorms will persist across the western CWA and the mountains until at least 6 AM. This will be due to a broad ridge of high pressure centered across the South Plains and shortwave trough off the coast of Southern California. With these two systems in place, the bulk of the moisture is advected into Arizona with some moderation across Grant and Hidalgo Counties. Clouds should linger though the morning hours and with the winds mainly from the south, the low temperatures on Sunday morning will be above the normal for most of the area. For Sunday, conditions will be somewhat settled in the morning; however, with diurnal heating, available moisture and weakness along the western periphery of the ridge, showers and thunderstorms will develop starting across the mountains first then across the lowlands. Storms coverage on Sunday should be similar to that of today with the dew point temperatures mostly in the 50s in the lowlands and some 40s in the mountains and PW values between 1 and 1.4 inches for much of the area except in the mountains. PW values in the mountains will be mostly below an inch; however, with enough orographic forcing, storms are likely to develop. High temperatures for Sunday will be above normal but would not be hot as they were earlier this week due to rain- cooled air and outflows from storms nearby. && .LONG TERM... Still looking at Monday night as potentially more active in terms of thunderstorm activity across the lowland zones. Model precipitable water values pushing 1.3-1.4" and less subsident flow aloft allowing for greater mid-level instability should help get convection going in the afternoon and keep it going through much of the nighttime hours. Rain coverage won't be widespread, but still better than what we've been seeing this past week. Decaying high pressure over the Intermountain West and the redevelopment of a more traditional ridge position across the southeastern U.S. will leave New Mexico and west Texas in a more consistent southeast moisture fetch early next week. This will be favorable enough to keep moisture in the area and thus daily thunderstorm chances, however I can't find any notable signal that would suggest better storm coverage or increased rain rates. Overall, the long term forecast looks very normal for late July, with isolated lowland/scattered mountain thunderstorm activity each evening. High temperatures will reach the lower-mid 90's each afternoon, right along climate normals. Activity will continue to be very hit-and-miss through next week, with the best chances favoring zones west of the Rio Grande and into Arizona where the main monsoon plume resides. Extended models suggest the redevelopment of strong ridging flow over the Great Basin as we head into August, which can greatly limit precipitation chances if moisture parameters remain marginal. Moisture trapped under the high usually isn't good enough for widespread rains, but would be enough to keep slight PoPs. The main factor in determining PoPs will be the eventual progression (or regression) of the monsoonal moisture plume. With high pressure overhead, we'll need really good moisture to continue thunderstorm chances for the first week of August. && .AVIATION...TAF sites with CIG FEW090-BKN250. There will be periods of SKC. The winds will be generally light until around 23Z before increasing to 10 and 20kts with gust up to 25kts thereafter. The wind direction will be between the northwest and the southwest between 23Z and 05Z Sunday. The winds will decrease to below 10kts by around 05Z Sunday. There will be a few TS in the vicinity of KTCS, KDMN, and KLRU between 22Z and 05Z Sunday. There will be no reduction in the VIS across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Moisture will continue to be in place with winds generally light (5 to 15 mph). Showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly in the afternoon and evening hours mainly west of the Rio Grande plus the mountains. Temperatures will be on the hot side but not as hot as they were this past week. As a result of this, there will not be any fire weather concerns for our area. For Monday, moisture will increase further with the winds continuing to be light similar to that of Sunday. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler on Monday with a couple of thunderstorms across the Borderland. For the rest of the period, similar conditions are expected with the moisture levels slightly increase and decreasing as the week goes by. Min RH will between 20 and 35% in the lowlands and 40 and 55% in the mountains on Sunday. Min RH will increase on Monday to 25 to 40% in the lowlands and 45 to 65% in the mountains on Monday. Ventilation rates will be poor to very good for the same period. && && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 101 76 99 74 / 10 20 40 50 Sierra Blanca 93 71 91 70 / 20 20 40 40 Las Cruces 100 72 98 70 / 10 20 40 60 Alamogordo 96 72 96 69 / 30 10 40 30 Cloudcroft 72 53 72 51 / 50 10 60 30 Truth or Consequences 98 73 96 71 / 20 30 50 60 Silver City 90 65 87 63 / 60 50 70 70 Deming 99 71 97 70 / 20 40 50 70 Lordsburg 96 70 94 68 / 40 60 60 70 West El Paso Metro 99 76 97 74 / 10 20 40 60 Dell City 98 71 96 71 / 10 0 20 20 Fort Hancock 100 74 99 71 / 20 20 40 50 Loma Linda 92 70 91 67 / 10 10 40 50 Fabens 99 73 98 72 / 10 20 30 50 Santa Teresa 98 73 96 71 / 10 20 40 60 White Sands HQ 98 75 96 73 / 10 20 40 50 Jornada Range 98 72 96 70 / 20 20 50 50 Hatch 100 73 98 71 / 20 20 50 60 Columbus 99 72 96 71 / 20 40 50 70 Orogrande 97 73 96 71 / 20 10 40 40 Mayhill 84 59 83 57 / 40 20 50 30 Mescalero 84 58 83 56 / 50 20 60 30 Timberon 83 57 82 56 / 30 10 50 30 Winston 90 65 88 62 / 50 30 70 60 Hillsboro 96 69 94 67 / 30 30 60 60 Spaceport 98 71 96 69 / 10 20 40 50 Lake Roberts 88 60 86 59 / 70 60 80 70 Hurley 95 67 93 66 / 40 40 60 70 Cliff 98 62 94 61 / 60 60 70 60 Mule Creek 92 64 89 63 / 70 60 80 70 Faywood 94 68 92 66 / 40 40 60 70 Animas 96 68 94 67 / 40 60 60 70 Hachita 96 68 93 67 / 30 50 50 70 Antelope Wells 94 66 92 65 / 40 60 60 70 Cloverdale 89 62 86 62 / 50 70 70 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && 99/99/31
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1104 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2022 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-241715- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes- Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 1104 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will produce brief heavy rainfall and localized flooding in a few areas. Wind gusts up to 50 mph will also be possible around stronger storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected each evening with the primary risk being localized flash flooding. Flooding risk will be highest across portions of the Gila Wilderness and southwest New Mexico where thunderstorm coverage is greater. Heavy rains causing runoff through arroyos and drainages in high terrain may impact low water crossings and mountain roadway access. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed, however spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather or significant flooding to the National Weather Service.
The El Paso radar (KEPZ), 214 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:59 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A spotter reported a peak wind gust of 59 mph two miles northeast of Gila.
Landscaping and trash cans washed away in front of the Space Museum due to high water flows. The radar estimated 1.5 to 2 inches of rainfall upstream of the museum over Horse Ridge.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1048984, 1048988.