An easterly wave that had been impacting southern New Mexico all week was now located over southern Arizona on August 19, 2022. Continued moisture advection into western and southern New Mexico generated widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area by late morning on the 19th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
An easterly wave that had been impacting southern New Mexico all week was now located over southern Arizona on August 19, 2022. Continued moisture advection into western and southern New Mexico generated widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area by late morning on the 19th. A thunderstorm over the McBride burn scar produced heavy rain that caused flash flooding and debris flow.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 19, 10:38 AM MST, 3 hours 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1138 AM MDT Fri Aug 19 2022 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE A very active pattern is expected through Saturday as an easterly wave and an abundant amount of moisture tracks over the area. Today's shower and thunderstorm activity will favor southern and western NM and will develop into a large area of rain as the activity moves NE into central and eastern NM overnight. Rain at times will be moderate to heavy, producing MVFR visibilities. MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will be common across much of the area as well by sunrise, impacting many of the TAF sites through 18Z. 15 && .PREV DISCUSSION...314 AM MDT Fri Aug 19 2022... .SYNOPSIS... A significant surge of monsoonal moisture is still on tap to arrive into the desert southwest beginning late Friday, and lasting through Saturday night. This plume of moisture will bring moderate to heavy rain and flash flooding potential. The southwestern and south-central mountains to include the Black, Bear Trap, and McBride burn scars will be the favored areas for flash flooding potential first Friday night into Saturday morning. This hazard spreads to more of central NM during the day Saturday, before shifting over the eastern plains Saturday night into Sunday morning. As such, much of the flash flooding potential is now forecast to focus along and south of I-40 with lesser potential over northern NM. Conditions clear out through the day Sunday. A return to a more normal daily routine of afternoon storms arrives next week. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... Some important changes occurred overnight which resulted in lower confidence on QPF for the northwestern edge of the heavy rainfall expected to move over the region tonight thru Saturday night. The Flood Watch was cancelled for areas closer to the CO border as the entire system is trending farther southeast. Scattered to numerous Showers and storms are still expected to develop over the southern high terrain today with more isolated activity farther north toward the I-40 corridor. The start time of the Flood Watch for central and eastern NM was also pushed out until Saturday morning as drier, more stable air remains in place over this region today. A couple storms are still possible over the northern high terrain so the watch is still in effect for burn scar areas. Saturday is still on track to feature heavy rainfall and a couple embedded storms for the southeastern half of NM as a warm-core low lifts northeast over the area. This is a complex scenario and the track of the rain shield will be impacted by an upstream upper low traversing the Great Basin and a subtropical ridge strengthening over south TX. There are considerable differences with the latest deterministic model QPF for areas northwest of a line from near Socorro to Clines Corners and Tucumcari Saturday and Saturday night. There are also large spreads in the NBM QPF quartiles so confidence is lower on rainfall amounts. The airmass also lacks instability for convection so weather grids were converted to mostly moderate to heavy rain with isolated storms. Despite lower confidence farther north and west, there is still high confidence on widespread heavy rainfall over southern and eastern areas where 2 to 4 inches of rain is likely over an 18 to 30-hour period. This may not translate into flash flooding outside the McBride burn scar but rises are likely to occur on creeks, streams, and tributaries to mainstem rivers within east central and southeast NM. Low lying areas may also experience flooding by Saturday night. All this rain and cloud cover will come with max temps of 15 to 20F below normal. LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... The long term period begins Sunday night with the significant plume of monsoonal moisture and heavy rain potential shifting over the eastern plains of New Mexico. With the main feature looking to close off to an upper low over NM, model solutions are depicting a band or two of moderate to heavy rainfall over east- central NM during this time. Model spreads generally favor areas along I-40 southward into Chaves County. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with localized amounts as high as 3 inches are possible within this area by the end of Sunday morning. Low-laying and poorly drained areas will be susceptible to flash flooding. Meanwhile, areas along and west of the Rio Grande River look to be drying and clearing out during this time. The clearing conditions will spread eastward as the main system exits eastward into TX, with nearly all areas becoming rain free by mid-day Sunday, but only for a short time. Clearing skies allowing for increased heating and instability, and abundant leftover boundary layer moisture looks to bring a fairly standard crop of afternoon storms favoring the high terrain of New Mexico Sunday afternoon. Slow storm motions and wet antecedent ground conditions will allow for flash flooding to again be a factor for soaked areas and burn scars. Meanwhile, a weakening low opening to a trough will move southward from western CO into northwestern NM Sunday night into Monday morning. This will act to keep a few showers going overnight Sunday night over northwestern and north-central NM while other areas see clearing conditions. This system will also act as an impetus for afternoon storms to favor the northern mountains Monday afternoon before sliding southward and over adjacent valley locations Monday evening. Thereafter, the synoptic scale pattern favors a new high pressure system becoming the dominant player over the UT/AZ border by Tuesday. This will setup a northerly flow aloft over NM. Daily rounds of storms will favor the central mountain chain, with general storm motions toward the south and south-southwest each day and evening. Drier conditions will favor the far northwest near the Four Corners and eastern plains toward the TX border. Guyer/24 && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns the next 7 days. Showers and storms across the region today will give way to a large area of rain late tonight through Saturday and Saturday night. Rain amounts of 1 to 2" may be common over central NM with 2 to 4" likely over the south and east. Rain will exit eastern NM Sunday while showers and storms develop across the north and west. Storms with locally heavy rainfall are expected each afternoon through the middle of next week with flash flooding possible on burn scars. Guyer && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for the following zones... NMZ207-212-214-217>219-221>223-228-229-231>237. Flood Watch through Saturday evening for the following zones... NMZ202-205-206-208-209-211-215-220-224>226-238>241. &&
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 73 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:42 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain on the McBride burn scar caused water and debris to flow over Devil's Canyon Road at an Eagle Creek low water crossing. Damagers were not known.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1040192.