Thunderstorms on the 19th initiated across southeast Arizona and along the Mogollon Rim during the late morning/early afternoon hours before pushing into the lower elevations of south-central Arizona. 2).
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PSR wrote it up.
Thunderstorms on the 19th initiated across southeast Arizona and along the Mogollon Rim during the late morning/early afternoon hours before pushing into the lower elevations of south-central Arizona. A couple of upper level features, which included an area of low pressure over northern Sonora and a shortwave trough over the Great Basin, aided in ascent over the region in an environment characterized by high instability (MUCAPE 2,000 J/kg) and anomalously high moisture (PWATs 1.8-2.2). Given the moisture in place, thunderstorms were able to become efficient rainfall producers, leading to multiple reports of flash flooding across the area. No injuries were reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 19, 3:37 PM MST, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 337 PM MST Fri Aug 19 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will be below normal today with thunderstorms increasing through the afternoon and evening. Deep Monsoon moisture and disturbances will maintain good chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are likely with chances peaking this afternoon through Sunday morning. Temperatures are also forecast to cool to well below normal with highs falling into the low nineties today and possibly even the upper eighties by Saturday. Below normal highs will warm to near 100 degrees for next week with slight to fair chances of isolated to scattered storms each day. && .DISCUSSION... Visible satellite imagery and radar this afternoon showed numerous showers and thunderstorms across southeast Arizona and along the Mogollon Rim as well as southeastern parts of the metro area. Several Flash Flood Warnings have already been issued across the region as these storms are efficient rainfall producers. Meanwhile across the lower deserts, widespread cloud cover from this morning's shower activity has since diminished with insolation contributing to destabilizing conditions. Given this, thunderstorm development will continue to increase across the lower deserts through the afternoon with objective analysis showing MLCAPE values upwards of 1,500-2,000 J/kg. This activity is in response to anomalously deep monsoonal moisture in place with an area of low pressure situated over northern Sonora near the Gulf of California. An upper level trough is also noted to the northwest of our area over the Great Basin with a jet streak positioned favorably across northern Arizona, which will act to help induce difluence over the region. Moisture values are anomalously high across the region. The 19/12Z PHX balloon sounding from this morning recorded a PWAT value of 2.22", which is a record for the date according to PHX sounding climatology. The latest SPC mesoanalysis data showed PWATs above 2" across much of south- central Arizona this afternoon. The upper level forcing combined with abnormally deep monsoonal moisture will lead to increasing thunderstorm coverage through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall leading to areas of flash flooding will be the primary concern as thunderstorms are expected to be slow moving, efficient rainfall producers. Modeled soundings show DCAPE values less than 1,000 J/kg so wind threat doesn't look as high but can't rule out a few instances locally strong winds with the strongest thunderstorms, which may lead to some blowing dust. HREF shows upwards of a 30-50% chance of outflow gusts exceeding 35 mph. Thunderstorm chances will continue to increase through the afternoon/evening, climbing upwards of 60-70% across south-central Arizona with chances quickly dropping off west of the Colorado River Valley. The latest HiRes guidance shows increasing thunderstorm coverage extending into the lower deserts over the next couple of hours continuing into the evening hours. Radar currently shows several outflows pushing across northern Pinal County and southeast Maricopa County leading to new thunderstorm development. The 12Z HREF showed upwards of 50% chance of 3 hour QPF > 1" across south-central Arizona through this evening with higher probabilities residing across southeast Arizona. Heading through the day Saturday, the area of low pressure is seen lifting toward the northeast through southeast Arizona and into New Mexico before pushing toward the east into the southern Plains Sunday. HREF paintball plots shows the bulk of precipitation shifting east of the region into New Mexico tomorrow with the low. However, we may still see some jet support tomorrow to help lead to thunderstorm development over the high terrain before pushing into the lower deserts. PoPs for Saturday remain quite elevated around 60- 80% across central Arizona with chances dropping off quickly across southwest Arizona and southeast California. WPC QPF over the next couple of days has trended downward compared to previous forecasts. Amounts range from around 0.25" to upwards of an inch across the lower deserts with higher amounts in excess of an inch over southern Gila County. Storm total rainfall amounts are likely to vary with some areas seeing little while others may see locally high amounts around 1-2". The highest QPF remains focused across southeast Arizona. Aside from the active monsoonal activity, temperatures will be well below normal through the weekend as high temperatures only top out in the low 90s across the Phoenix area while places across southeast California climb into the low 100s. Afternoon highs will return into the low 100s across the Valley next week with more typical daily thunderstorm chances. && .AVIATION...Updated 1730Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The threat for thunderstorms increases for all terminals by later this afternoon into this evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop off to the east and southeast of the area and spread toward the terminals toward 23-00z. Have increased confidence for tempo groups at all terminals for thunder. Winds will be shifting into an east/southeasterly direction this evening, but erratic and gusty near storms. Will have to watch radar trends closely later today with some potential of lower visibilities in heavier rainfall. The potential for showers will linger into much of the overnight hours before drying out for a period in the morning. Sct to bkn mid level clouds will persist with some lowering in ceilings in the vicinity of storms. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Terminals start out quiet with clear skies, but KBLH will be on the west edge of convection by early this evening. Have continue trends of VCTS IN THE 00-04Z timeframe. Outside of this timeframe, mainly just sct mid clouds to persist, KIPL looks to be far enough west to not see much in the way of impacts with a light southeasterly wind. && .FIRE WEATHER... There is a good 40-60% chance of isolated-scattered showers and storms through the afternoon followed by better 70-80% chances for this evening, Fri night through Sat night across S-Cent AZ. Slight to fair 20-40% storm chances for SW AZ and SE CA today and Sat. Very elevated moisture with min RH values >40% today and >50% Sat with excellent overnight recovery of >75-80% across the region. Winds on average will be light, with the exception of any thunderstorm outflows generating stronger gusts. Well below normal max Ts today through the weekend as upper level disturbances with deep Monsoon moisture are expected to impact much of AZ through the remainder today and through the weekend. Impacts from thunderstorm activity will include locally strong winds, rounds of heavy rainfall and localized flooding well into the weekend. Winds through the period will remain light, with the exception of nearby thunderstorms or thunderstorm outflows generating stronger gusts. For next week drier and slightly warmer conditions with a downtick in storm activity. Although daily semi-elevated chances for showers and storms near ~20-40%, and below normal highs in the upper 90s to low 100a remain likely. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for AZZ531-533>563. CA...None. && DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Frieders FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
254 PM MST Fri Aug 19 2022
AZZ548-549-551-553-555-192245-
Fountain Hills/East Mesa AZ-Northwest Pinal County AZ-
Southeast Valley/Queen Creek AZ-East Valley AZ-
Apache Junction/Gold Canyon AZ-
254 PM MST Fri Aug 19 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Maricopa and Pinal
Counties through 345 PM MST...
At 253 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Apache Junction, moving southwest at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Mesa, Chandler, Gilbert, Apache Junction, Queen Creek, Chandler
Heights, Seville, Phoenix Mesa Gateway Airport, Gold Camp and
Higley.
This includes the following highways...
US Highway 60 between mile markers 187 and 196.
AZ Route 87 between mile markers 164 and 167.
AZ Route 202 between mile markers 29 and 48.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3343 11161 3335 11148 3309 11164 3331 11189
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 037DEG 9KT 3336 11161
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPHPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 PM MST FRI AUG 19 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0315 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SE HIGLEY 33.30N 111.71W
08/19/2022 M1.00 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER
>1 INCH ACCUMULATION IN <30 MINUTES.
&&Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
350 PM MST Fri Aug 19 2022
AZZ541-546>549-192330-
Fountain Hills/East Mesa AZ-Scottsdale/Paradise Valley AZ-
Cave Creek/New River AZ-East Valley AZ-Rio Verde/Salt River AZ-
350 PM MST Fri Aug 19 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Maricopa County
through 430 PM MST...
At 350 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fountain Hills, moving south at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Mesa, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Granite Reef Dam, McDowell
Mountain Park, Salt River Indian Community, Usery Mountain Park,
Salt River Tubing Recreation Area and Fort McDowell.
This includes the following highways...
AZ Route 87 between mile markers 178 and 199.
AZ Route 202 between mile markers 15 and 23.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3370 11184 3369 11156 3347 11154 3346 11187
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 000DEG 6KT 3362 11174
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
358 PM MST Fri Aug 19 2022
AZZ554-559-192345-
Sonoran Desert Natl Monument AZ-West Pinal County AZ-
358 PM MST Fri Aug 19 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Maricopa and Pinal
Counties through 445 PM MST...
At 358 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Freeman, or 25 miles east of Gila Bend, moving west at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Freeman and Big Horn.
This includes AZ Interstate 8 between mile markers 128 and 152.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3293 11215 3278 11211 3267 11244 3293 11255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 080DEG 11KT 3286 11226
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
418 PM MST Fri Aug 19 2022
AZZ541>544-546-548-549-200000-
Fountain Hills/East Mesa AZ-Scottsdale/Paradise Valley AZ-
Cave Creek/New River AZ-East Valley AZ-Central Phoenix AZ-
Deer Valley AZ-North Phoenix/Glendale AZ-
418 PM MST Fri Aug 19 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Maricopa County
through 500 PM MST...
At 418 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Scottsdale Airport, or near Paradise Valley, moving south at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale, Tempe, Paradise Valley, Salt River Indian
Community, Sky Harbor Airport and Desert Ridge Marketplace.
This includes the following highways...
AZ Interstate 10 between mile markers 146 and 150.
AZ Interstate 17 between mile markers 195 and 196.
AZ Route 51 between mile markers 1 and 15.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3368 11201 3366 11183 3341 11176 3342 11208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 001DEG 6KT 3359 11190
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPHPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
436 PM MST FRI AUG 19 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0433 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 ENE FOUNTAIN HILLS 33.63N 111.69W
08/19/2022 M1.03 INCH MARICOPA AZ MESONET
1.03 IN 45 MINUTES.
&&
DHThe Phoenix radar (KIWA), 36 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:53 UTC.
10 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
An image showed Ashbrook Wash running across a low water crossing along El Pueblo Boulevard north of Grande Boulevard, making the road impassable. No damage or injuries were reported.
A low water crossing on Pima Road south of Legend Trail Parkway became impassable due to a wash flowing approximately one foot in depth over the roadway. No damage or injuries were reported.
A FCDMC streamflow gage along Cave Creek exceeded alarm stage, impacting downstream low water crossings such as Canyon Creek Road. At 1809MST, the gage peaked at a depth of 6.89 feet and a flow of 3,670 CFS. No damage or injuries were reported.
ADOT reported that SR 238 was closed due to flooding between mileposts 7-23. No damage or injuries were reported.
A large tree was uprooted in a neighborhood near Bullard Avenue and Larkspur Drive, crashing through a cinder block wall and causing damage to the backyard of a home. No injuries were reported.
A video showed Flying E Wash flowing across a low water crossing along Vulture Mine Road, making the roadway impassable. An upstream FCDMC streamflow gage along the wash exceeded alarm stage, peaking at a depth of 1.77 feet and a flow of 269 CFS at 1858MST. No damage or injuries were reported.
MCDOT reported that Salome Road was closed between I-10 and milepost 22 due to flooding. No damage or injuries were reported.
A video showed a wash flowing across a low water crossing south of Salome on Harquahala Road, making the roadway impassable. No damage or injuries were reported.
MCDOT reported that Centennial Road between 517th Avenue and 555th Avenue was closed due to flooding in Centennial Wash. Timing estimated from radar. No damage or injuries were reported.
A FCDMC streamflow gage along Delaney Wash exceeded alarm stage, impacting a downstream low water crossing along 411th Avenue. At 2139MST, the gage peaked at a depth of 2.94 feet and a flow of 426 CFS. No damage or injuries were reported.
A video taken at sunrise on the 20th showed Hoodoo Wash flowing across a low water crossing along Palomas Road, making the road impassable. This was the result of heavy rain that occurred during the night of the 19th. No damage or injuries were reported.
A FCDMC streamflow gage along Columbus Wash exceeded alarm stage, impacting downstream low water crossings along Highline Road and 579th Avenue. At 0110MST, the gage peaked at a depth of 3.57 feet and a flow of 322 CFS. No damage or injuries were reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1054054, 1054055, 1054339, 1054056, 1054373, 1054358, 1054057, 1054298, 1054481, 1054333, 1054389, 1054322.