NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 22, 10:15 AM MST, 1 hour 45 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 22, 10:15 AM MST, 1 hour 45 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1115 AM MDT Fri Apr 22 2022
.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
Strong wind and blowing dust will be the main aviation concerns
today. W/SW winds will strengthen through the mid afternoon for
all terminals up to 25-35G45KTs. Blowing dust could drop
visibilities down at all terminals, but have the highest
confidence in KDMN, KLRU, and KELP. KDMN may reach IFR conditions
at times. Frontal passage this evening may keep KELP gusting
through about 08Z. An AWW has been issued through 12Z Saturday.
Otherwise, winds begin to slowly decrease after 3Z.
&&
26
.PREV DISCUSSION...415 AM MDT Fri Apr 22 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Very windy today and very warm, but winds decrease as do
temperatures for Saturday. Sunday looks like a fantastic day. On
Monday, moisture returns to the area to bring low thunderstorm
chances through at least Tuesday or Wednesday. By the end of the
week, dry and somewhat breezy conditions return with highs back well
above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...This Afternoon through Tomorrow...
Very strong winds--potentially damaging--with blowing dust and high
fire danger is on tap for the Borderland today. A strong upper
level trough, currently crossing CA, will move into the Central
Rockies by this evening, bringing a 110+ knot H25 jet into
northwestern NM, and a 45-55+ knot H7 jet max across SW and central
NM. At the surface, a rapidly strengthening surface low in Northern
Colorado will quickly increase the pressure gradient across the
region today. Model soundings show mixing this afternoon up to about
650mb, bringing the potential for the 55+ knot winds to mix to the
surface as wind gusts. Wind will begin to pick up after sunrise,
with peak wind speeds between 3pm and 10 pm. A High Wind Warning is
in effect this afternoon through through midnight for Hidalgo, Luna,
and Sierra Counties, and portions of Dona Ana, Grant, and Otero
Counties. Sustained winds of 40-50 mph with gusts to +60 can be
expected. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the remaining
portion of the CWA. Blowing dust will result from the strong winds,
with widespread blowing dust expected along and south of the I-10
corridor, including Deming, Las Cruces, and El Paso. Air quality
models show the potential for thick near surface dust this
afternoon, the question is how quickly the blowing dust may get
lofted with the high mixing heights today. Regardless, expect
visibility issues if you are in this corridor. One thing that will
need to be monitored will be a Pacific front that will be moving
across the forecast area this evening, which may keep winds
elevated, especially as it crosses the Franklins and pushes east
later this evening. El Paso, Hudspeth and southern Otero Counties
are currently only in a Wind Advisory. MAV guidance is hinting that
it may come close to warning criteria with FROPA, but the strong
winds may also be short lived. Again, something to watch. Otherwise
wind will slowly decrease after midnight, becoming 10-20 mph across
the region by the morning. The exception will be the Sacramento
mountains as they will stay breezy overnight. Temperatures will be
above normal 5-10 degrees today, with several lowland locations in
the 90s, especially east of the Rio Grande River. Despite the
increased wind Saturday morning, the cooler airmass will bring lows
to below normal for areas west of the Rio Grande River.
&&
.LONG TERM...
The weekend is looking pretty nice with Sunday as the "pick of the
litter." For both days, we'll remain at the base of an UL trough,
but jet flow aloft will be decreasing. There will still be enough
energy aloft on Saturday for a relatively weak lee side low across
KS, which lead to a breezy day with speeds topping out around 20
mph. Highs will be close to normal. On Sunday, the jet stream
decreases further while surface high pressure moves through the
Plains. Thus, winds will be pretty light on Sunday with highs
continuing to be near seasonal averages.
On Monday, the high pressure over the Plains will continue to build,
which will force an easterly push through the CWA. While the air
mass has a Canadian origin, very little of the cooler air will
actually make into the area, which means highs will change very
little from Sunday. The main thing this change in wind will do is
open us to some heavily modified Gulf of Mexico moisture with dew
points expected to rise. Aloft, however, the area will be beneath an
upper ridge, so there will not be much to lift said moisture into
precip except for terrain and the lingering boundary. Nevertheless
models are still trying to hint at isolated thunderstorms with the
GFS still insisting a weak s/w will ride the ridge. Although already
low confidence is waning that we will see much if any precip, I kept
the broad low-pops provided by the NBM.
The moisture will begin to exit the area on Wednesday as flow aloft
becomes more southwesterly. I will note that models continue to slow
the exit of this moisture, especially the GFS. The 00z GFS carries
precip chances now well into Wednesday night. Either way, the
exiting of the moisture will signal a return to above normal
temperatures and zero precip chances.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions today. A
strong, upper level trough will move into the Central Rockies this
afternoon, at the same time a surface low will deepen in N. CO. This
will result in very strong winds across the forecast area. In
addition, high temperatures 5-10 degrees above the seasonal normal
and Min RH values at 5-15% will help shape a high-end fire weather
day. Winds decrease overnight to 10-20 mph by Saturday morning. Max
RH recoveries are only 25-50 percent. On Saturday, the forecast area
will remain under westerly to northwesterly flow aloft, supporting
afternoon breezes across all fire weather zones. Winds are currently
just under red flag criteria, but Min RH values stay low -- 7-17%
across the area. SPC has highlighted the region with elevated fire
weather conditions. Max vent rates excellent today, good to
excellent on Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will be back to around the seasonal average Saturday
through Tuesday with light afternoon breezes. Run-to-run model
guidance continues to hint at an increase in moisture towards the
middle of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 93 56 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 90 52 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 90 48 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 88 47 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 64 34 50 32 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 85 46 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 76 40 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 87 44 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 84 39 74 39 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 91 53 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 93 51 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 96 52 82 47 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 85 49 71 47 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 94 52 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 89 47 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 88 53 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 86 47 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 87 47 77 43 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 88 47 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 89 51 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 77 42 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 75 37 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 74 38 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 82 29 75 28 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 81 42 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 85 43 76 42 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 76 33 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 80 37 70 36 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 85 30 76 28 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 75 37 68 29 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 80 39 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 84 39 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 84 39 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 83 44 77 42 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 77 40 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ407-411-
413.
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113.
Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ401-411-413-417.
High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ402>410-412-
414>416.
TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418-419.
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.
Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for TXZ418>424.
&&
33/34/26