Damaging Winds in Nevada, June 23, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
147 PM PDT Thu Jun 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated but potentially strong thunderstorms are
evolving across the region this afternoon and will continue into
the evening hours tonight before subsiding. Drier conditions
resume Friday through the weekend with storm chances becoming
limited to northwest Arizona. Monsoonal moisture may attempt to
creep back into the Mojave Desert by next week. Temperatures today
will be a few degrees below normal but return to slightly above
average by the weekend and into next week. &&

.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight.
As of 20Z, satellite trends show an upper level closed low
spinning over west central Nevada providing a favorable lifting
environment for thunderstorms across central Nevada and farther
south into southeast California, southern Nevada, and northwest
Arizona. Modest but adequate instability and shear is present east
of the closed low which is the reason behind the SPC marginal
risk issued today for northern Lincoln county. This region, in
addition to lightning potential, will also have the greatest risk
for isolated severe wind gusts (over 58 mph) and hail due to the
aforementioned lifting and inverted V sounding evident in forecast
soundings. These features exist to a lesser degree farther south
but will be aided by orographics, making those risks much more
isolated in nature.

After sunset, convective potential wanes and HREF strongly
indicates a quick loss of storm coverage. At the same time, the
low becomes less defined and upper level flow becomes less
favorable over southern Nevada. This should effectively reduce the
severe risk for Nevada as lifting moves into Utah overnight.

.LONG TERM...Tomorrow through Next Week.

Drier and more stable will push in from the west on Friday and
persist through the weekend. This will shift any potential
thunderstorm activity into Northwest Arizona exclusively, though
coverage will remain quite isolated even there. Meanwhile,
temperatures will tend to climb further through the weekend and
return to slightly above normal values.

By early next week, tropical influences south of the Baja will
encourage additional moisture fluxes into the Southwest and ECMWF
and GFS meteograms both suggest a return of low grade monsoonal
moisture Monday through Wednesday. NBM PoPs remain quite limited
at this time but will likely trend upward as confidence increases.
Meanwhile, temperatures will remain slightly above normal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Main fire weather concern today will be associated with new fire
starts due to lightning. Several isolated thunderstorms are
expected from Inyo County California into much of southern and
central Nevada. These storms will likely result in occasional to
frequent cloud to ground lightning and could be a risk for new
fire starts. Additionally, strong outflow gusts with these storms
could help to spread these fires should any occur. This risk
decreases by this evening and remains low for all areas outside of
the Sierra Nevada ridge and northwest Arizona beyond today.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Another round of scattered
showers and thunderstorms is expected through southern Nevada and
western Arizona today. Low chance that storms impact the terminals,
however sudden gusty outflow winds are possible with any nearby
convection between 21Z-03Z. If a stray storm did move into the
valley, CIGs down to 10kft and lightning can be expected on top of
the outflow potential. Convection will dissipate after sunset. Gusts
to 25KT expected this afternoon. Winds will drop off tonight to
8KT or less. Breezy south-southwest winds are expected again on
Friday, however they should not be at strong as today with gusts
to 20KT possible.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across
Inyo County into southern Nevada and northwest Arizona this
afternoon starting around 21Z. Lightning, sudden gusty winds, and
CIGs to around 10kft are possible with any convection today. Outside
of convective influences, breezy south to southwest winds are
expected across the region today with widespread gusts 20-25KT
likely. Occasional VFR clouds are likely, especially this afternoon.
Winds will dissipate tonight and follow typical overnight wind
patterns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...TB3
LONG TERM...Outler
AVIATION...Nickerson

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