Dust Storm and High Wind in Nevada, February 14 to 15, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
320 AM PST Mon Feb 14 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

A fast moving slider type system will bring gusty winds Monday,
followed by a sharp front with colder conditions and a chance for
light rain and snow Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Dry
weather along with a gradual warming trend returns for mid to
late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

..A SLICK COMMUTE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...

An inside slider-type system is still on track to affect the
region Monday into Tuesday with gusty winds and a quick burst of
precipitation. Simulations still remain similar regarding the
track of the slider.

This afternoon and evening, the slider approaches from the Pac NW
pushing a sharp cold frontal boundary into northern California
and Nevada. Ahead of the front, winds will increase from the west
and southwest with gusts 30-50 mph this afternoon and evening.
Stronger gusts are likely to last longer along Highway 395 in Mono
County as the front doesn't clear that area until towards daybreak
Tuesday. Foothills and higher elevation areas will be susceptible
to higher gusts near 60 mph with winds over exposed Sierra ridges
gusting 80-100 mph. These gusts are likely to kick up some
blowing dust off sinks from eastern Lassen County and northern
Washoe County out into the Carson and Humboldt sinks of Pershing
and Churchill counties.

For tonight into the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday, the sharp cold
front will bring quick but potent forcing for a period of rain and
snow. While there could be a brief period of rain below about 6000
feet, precipitation should go over to snow quickly as the frontal
boundary passes through the region. Snowfall should be limited
due to the fast motion of this system through the area. However, a
few areas over northeast CA and western NV near/north of I-80,
could get briefly elevated snowfall rates late tonight as
soundings indicate some instability for producing heavier
convective snow showers. There is even a slight chance for a few
lightning flashes over those areas this evening.

Current blended guidance indicates a high chance for at least
measurable snowfall (0.1") for many areas, with 20-30% chance for
1-2" of snowfall in far western NV and the Sierra north of Lee
Vining. There is also a 30-40% chance for 2-4 inches in the
Sierra and the higher foothills of western NV. Given that the snow
will fall overnight, there is definitely a concern for slick
and/or slushy road conditions early Tuesday morning, especially in
areas above 4500-5000 feet. Theses slick conditions could carry
over into the morning commute.

Highs Tuesday are still projected to be around 20 degrees colder
than Monday, topping out only in the 30s to mid 40s. A noteworthy
chill will fill the area as the colder continental air combines
with northerly winds of 10-20 mph. -Amanda/Snyder

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next weekend...

A dry and weak secondary shortwave dropping into the eastern Great
Basin will keep north winds and cool temperatures going through
Wednesday, with another round of stronger northeast-east ridge
winds (possible gusts 60-80 mph at the crest) Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday morning.

The remainder of the week into early next weekend will then
feature a high pressure ridge rebuilding near the west coast,
bringing those conditions we've been so familiar with since the
start of the year-- dry with light winds and a warming trend. High
temperatures are projected to reach the lower 60s for western NV
valleys and lower-mid 50s near the Sierra Friday-Saturday. A few
of the guidance sources attempt to drop another dry and compact
low into eastern CA or northwest NV for the Friday-Saturday time
frame, although the impacts appear to be minor--maybe a bit less
warming and more variance in wind directions.

The latter portion of the Presidents' Day holiday weekend could
include another fast moving low pressure system taking a similar
track as the system moving through tonight. This would lead to
increased winds late Sunday into Sunday night, then temperatures
cooling to below average again next Monday. This system may
contain a bit more moisture, but at this time it doesn't look
like a significant rain or snow event. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will continue increasing with more widespread turbulence and
LLWS this afternoon into early Tuesday morning, as a cold front is
forecast to sweep through the region. A short period with wind
gusts 40-45 kt is possible this evening for the far western NV
terminals. For Tuesday, a brisk north wind is expected with
increasing gusts on higher ridges later in the day, keeping
turbulent conditions going around the main terminals.

Rain/snow bands will develop along the front this evening into
early Tuesday. Expect freezing levels to fall below 4000 ft msl
before daybreak Tuesday which opens the potential for a mix of
rain and snow at the western NV terminals. The front is forecast
to move through the region quickly which should limit rain/snow
totals, but short periods of IFR conditions are probable due to
some convective enhancement of the bands (could see a few
lightning flashes). In the Sierra, there is about 30% chance for
snow totals exceeding 2 inches for TVL and TRK. Across western NV
terminals, including RNO, snow totals should remain below 1 inch,
with about 20% chance for 1-2" amounts. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM PST this
     evening for Pyramid Lake in NVZ004.

     Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 4 AM PST Tuesday for Lake
     Tahoe in NVZ002.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM PST Tuesday
     NVZ003.

CA...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Tuesday
     CAZ073.

     Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 4 AM PST Tuesday for Lake
     Tahoe in CAZ072.

&&

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno