Long-term drought status was largely unchanged with a continuation of well-below normal precipitation across the region.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FSD wrote it up.
Long-term drought status was largely unchanged with a continuation of well-below normal precipitation across the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 9:43 PM CST, 2 hours 17 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1043 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 KEY MESSAGES 1) Well above normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with fire weather concerns each day 2) Winds increase some for Tuesday, more so for Wednesday 3) Strong front brings rain/thunderstorm chances Thursday along with declining temperatures 4) Uncertainty continues for weekend storm system although better precipitation chance look to be south and east of immediate area This Evening/Tonight: A rather spectacular Halloween evening ahead as temperatures late this afternoon in the 60s fall into the 50s after dark this evening. Winds will remain tame keeping any evening activities pleasant. Tuesday: Another very warm day expected with 850 mb temperatures into the 90th percentile of climatology. Mixing may fall just short of this level but nonetheless, have bumped temperatures into the upper quartile of guidance or widespread 70s. Winds will also increase over today's values with some gusts around 20-25 mph. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Wednesday: Could see a higher potential for cloud cover entering the forecast but still another day of similar temperatures to Tuesday with 850 mb temperatures from +12 to +16 C. The main difference will be in increasing low level winds with southwesterly winds likely gusting above 30 mph in many areas with forecast soundings showing some potential for gusts approaching 40 mph. Thursday: Many of the details regarding Thursday will depend on frontal timing with the ECMWF/NAM on the quicker side of the envelope while the GFS on the slower. Any locations who spend the majority of the daytime hours ahead of this sharp cold front will experience another very warm day while temperatures behind it will be set in to a sharp non-diurnal downward trend. Sharp nature of the baroclinic zone should allow for enough convergence/forcing to allow for some convective potential as this boundary slides into a region of weak instability. Again, frontal timing will be key but for now locations near and east of a Yankton to Brookings line look to stand the highest precipitation potential Thursday evening/night. Friday through Sunday: Main wave ejecting out of the Desert Southwest will generally ride northeastward along the previously established baroclinic zone. Latest guidance would favor bulk of the precipitation into the weekend favoring areas to our south/east but confidence still leaves some to be desired considering previous deterministic ECMWF was notably further northwest. Temperatures will push back near or below normal into the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 VFR conditions are forecast to prevail this TAF cycle. Should see light and variable winds persist for much of the overnight period, with direction becoming more southeasterly by late morning. Otherwise, look for gusts up to 20 mph to be possible through the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Well above normal, and in fact near record breaking, temperatures will help drive afternoon relative humidity values into the teens and 20s Tuesday afternoon. Winds look to stay shy of critical values however with sustained southerly winds between 10 to 20 mph and gusts as high as 20 to 25 mph. Forecast soundings show a relatively uniform wind profile and thus not a ton of concern for mixing into higher wind speeds. HREF probabilities of near critical values are also low (<20%) over our forecast area with the highest values in Gregory county. Nonetheless will want to keep an eye on forecast trends, especially along the MO River, perhaps into NW IA, for any increase in progged winds. Wednesday will see the opposite scenario where winds should be well into criteria but relative humidity values will be on the increase. In fact, forecast soundings support the ideas of wind gusts in the 30 to 40+ mph range, particularly near and east of the James River. Despite humidity values being above criteria, this will be a period that will need to be monitored as any fire starts would likely still see rapid spread give the very dry ambient fuels. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && SHORT TERM...Kalin LONG TERM...Kalin AVIATION...SST FIRE WEATHER...Kalin
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 725 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097- 098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-020030- Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee- Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson- Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory- Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook- Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton- Union- 725 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Well above average temperatures continue through mid week. Increasing winds and lower humidity will lead to fire weather concerns. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Precipitation at Sioux City and Newcastle was 50 to 75 percent of normal during November. Exceptional (D4) drought conditions persisted through the month.
Precipitation at Concord and Newcastle was 50 to 75 percent of normal during November. Exceptional (D4) drought conditions persisted through the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, November 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1062965, 1062966.