Hail and Damaging Wind in Nebraska, May 29, 2022

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
644 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

Lots of cloud cover streamed across the local area today...so far
helping to hold temperatures down a few degrees from their
potential. At the same time...a trough of low pressure extended
northeast into south central Nebraska..with a weak frontal
boundary just northwest of the tri-cities. This trough of low
pressure has helped to keep winds fairly light across the local
area today. Ahead of this front...dewpoints have remained in the
lower to mid 60s...while to the west...clear skies have allowed
instability to build despite the modestly lower dewpoints there.

For the rest of this afternoon and evening...continue to expect
the potential for thunderstorms to develop...and with good deep
level shear and plenty of instability...severe weather remains a
good possibility. While there remains some uncertainty in where
storms initially develop in model data...think the focus should
start just to our northwest over the next couple of hours where
clear skies have helped maximize instability and where the better
deep layer shear exists. That said...some models do have isolated
development further east and closer to the frontal boundary where
cloud cover remains at this time...and therefore cannot rule out
development across just about all of our Nebraska counties this
afternoon through evening...although continue to think western and
northern areas will be at the greatest risk. Given the favorable
shear, isolated supercells are possible...with large hail,
damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes all possible...and indeed
the convection being simulated in many of the CAMS looks
supercellular in nature.

Late this evening and overnight...expect a strong low level jet to
develop across the area and for the focus of the convection to
shift north and away from the local area as a deepening upper
level low to our west swings north and across Nebraska on Monday.
As this low lifts north over the state...expect a cold front to
slip east across the local area and be the focus for thunderstorm
development Monday afternoon/evening. Again, with ample shear and
instability...severe storms are again possible...this time
focused mainly across the southeastern quadrant of the local area.

Behind the initial cold front Monday...a stronger push of cold air
is anticipated for Tuesday which should bump down temperatures
to near normal along with a continued chance for showers and
thunderstorms overtaking the region Tuesday night into Wednesday
as another upper level low...in the trough to our west...makes
its way across the local area. This will likely make for a cloudy,
cool and unsettled day Wednesday...and while a few thunderstorms
look possible...severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Thereafter...dry conditions are anticipated for Thursday as brief
ridging aloft is anticipated...before the flow aloft becomes a bit
more messy with more zonal flow with some embedded disturbances
justifying the possibility of showers and a few thunderstorms
returning for the end of the work week and into next
weekend...with seasonable temperatures prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

Cloud cover seems to be clearing out some from the west going into
the evening, but with the low pressure area expected to stick
around the area this evening, winds have been tricky as have the
potential for thunderstorms. While thunderstorms are still
expected to develop and some of them will probably be severe, pretty
solid cloud cover has at least delayed thunderstorm initiation.
However, clouds are eroding faster from the west, so elected to
leave VCTS in the KEAR TAF for the next few hours. Further east,
elected to start the VCTS in the KGRI TAF a little later as cloud
cover should continue to delay initiation or storms moving over
that area a little longer.

Winds at KGRI will be out of the south to southeast with gusts up
to around 20 kts later this evening and into the overnight period.
Winds will switch around to the southwest Monday morning and gusts
will increase to 25 to 30 kts through the end of the TAF period.
AT KEAR, winds will be a bit lighter and more variable early this
evening before switching to southerly and gusting to around 20 kts
during the overnight period. KEAR will also see the switch to
southwest winds as well as the increase in gusts to around 30 kts
Monday morning.

LLWS will be a factor at both TAF sites, out of the south at
around 55kts at approximately 1600 feet AGL late tonight and early
Monday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Hickford

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1008 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
310315-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
1008 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to be expected to
develop late tonight, mainly along and north of a line from
Cambridge to York, Nebraska. Some of these storms will likely be
severe with up to 2 inch diameter hail and wind gusts of 70 MPH
or more. The area is under a Tornado Watch until 2 AM. While a
tornado cannot be ruled out, the main threats with these storms
will be large hail and damaging winds. The main timeframe for
severe weather is before 2 AM Monday morning...with the focus then
shifting north of the local area early Monday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Most areas will remain dry during the daytime hours on Monday,
but an isolated thunderstorm or two...primarily northwest of the
tri-cities...cannot be ruled out. During the evening hours, the
main threat for thunderstorms will shift southeast...and
generally be focused across areas near and southeast of a line
from Natoma, Kansas to York, Nebraska after 7pm. A few of these
thunderstorms could be severe, with hail to the size of quarters
and 60 mph wind gusts both possible.

There is a low chance for thunderstorms...mainly across north
central Kansas...Tuesday evening and overnight, with a better
chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms returning to
the local area on Wednesday. Severe weather is unlikely during
this timeframe.

After a dry day on Thursday, chances for thunderstorms return to
at least parts of the local area Friday afternoon through
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and this
evening.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1114 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

NEZ060-300430-
Dawson NE-
1114 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Dawson
County through 1130 PM CDT...

At 1114 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Eddyville, or 20 miles northeast of Lexington, moving northeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Dawson
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for south central
Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4105 9968 4105 9944 4093 9956 4099 9971
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 207DEG 21KT 4105 9957

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mangels

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1119 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

NEZ039-040-046-300445-
Valley NE-Greeley NE-Sherman NE-
1119 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Greeley,
Valley and northwestern Sherman Counties through 1145 PM CDT...

At 1119 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles east of Fort Hartsuff State Park to
Mason City. Movement was north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Arcadia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for central
Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 9860 4172 9859 4114 9921 4174 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 0419Z 186DEG 31KT 4176 9887 4121 9927

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Mangels