Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, May 29 to 30, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
413 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

The main concern in the short term is with storm development later
this afternoon and evening. There will be a two areas of focus
for thunderstorm development.

The frontal boundary across central Nebraska will be one area of
focus for more surface based storm development. The main hazards
will be hail, damaging winds and even a tornado potential. There
will be a narrow corridor of modest low level CAPE values around
2000 to 3000 J/kg. This will generally be from Mills, NE
southwestward to Dickens and east. A weak cap in the area is
expected to erode this afternoon with daytime heating. Once this
occurs can expect a few scattered thunderstorms to develop near
the front. The mode of storm development will be supercellular and
most likely discrete and possibly long tracked supercells. There
is the potential for tornadic development across portions of far
north central Nebraska into northeastern Nebraska, where the low
level Helicity is the greatest.

The second area of focus will be across western Nebraska as the
cold front advances eastward. For this sector the main threats
will be damaging winds and hail. Ongoing convection across
Colorado and Wyoming will move eastward and are expected to
strengthen. There is also the possibility of additional
convection development in western and southwest Nebraska as well
out ahead of the front. Storm wills intensify as the get into the
better environment. CAPE will be marginal across western Nebraska
around 600 to 1000 J/kg and around 1000 to 1600 J/kg generally
east of HWY 83. There is some concern however that moisture is a
little limited for areas across far western and southwest Nebraska
as sfc dewpoints are only in the low to mid 40s, moisture increases
to the east.

Most of the severe thunderstorm activity should diminish by
midnight. However, lingering showers and thunderstorms will still
be possible through the overnight. There is a concern for some
moderate to heavy rainfall across the northwest Sandhills and even
a marginal potential across north central Nebraska. QPF values
range from around 0.65 to 1.60 inches.

As for Monday, there is the potential for more showers and
thunderstorms, with chances lingering through the day as the cold
front continues to advance east. Most showers and thunderstorms
will remain below the severe threshold, however across north
central Nebraska there is still a slight risk of a strong to
severe storm.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

The next chance for precipitation will arrive on Wednesday night
as an upper level trof moves through the area. An upper level
ridge develops across the Western CONUS on Thursday, giving the
High Plains a northwest flow through the first half of the
weekend. By Sunday the flow will become more amplified. The cold
front passage will keep temperatures cool through Wednesday,
before temperatures begin to warm up towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

VFR is expected across wrn and ncntl Nebraska until 23z this
afternoon. Thereafter, thunderstorms, initially isolated, are
expected to become scattered to numerous and continue until 09z
Monday morning. MVFR/IFR ceilings and vsby are expected along and
north of I-80 from 09z-15z Monday morning. Improvement to VFR is
expected from south to north 15z-18z Monday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
328 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-302030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
328 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 /228 PM MDT Sun May 29 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Severe weather is likely late this afternoon and tonight across
western and north central Nebraska. Damaging wind gusts in excess
of 70 mph and very large hail greater than 2 inches are possible,
and a tornado cannot be ruled out. Storm activity will begin late
in the afternoon or early evening across western Nebraska and
spread east and northeast throughout the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Thunderstorm activity from Sunday night may continue into Monday
morning in north central Nebraska. Additional thunderstorm
activity is possible in the afternoon across much of the forecast
area. Large hail and strong winds are the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
540 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

NEZ057>059-069-070-292330-
Chase NE-Hayes NE-Perkins NE-Lincoln NE-Keith NE-
540 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Perkins,
southeastern Keith, northeastern Chase, southwestern Lincoln and
northwestern Hayes Counties through 630 PM CDT/530 PM MDT/...

At 539 PM CDT/439 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 10 miles northeast of Imperial, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Blowing dust may reduce visibility.

Locations impacted include...
Wallace, Madrid, Elsie and Grainton.

This includes Highway 61 between mile markers 43 and 64.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT/900
PM MDT/ for southwestern Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 10135 4059 10175 4109 10160 4099 10094
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 209DEG 36KT 4065 10155

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JWS