Dust Storm and Hail in Nebraska, May 12, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
223 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Surface low pressure will move through central Nebraska and into
eastern South Dakota by tonight and drag a cold front through the
region. The front currently extends southward through western
Nebraska and there is quite a gradient in temperatures with readings
well into the 80s ahead of the front but only in the 50s from the
sandhills and Pine Ridge into the panhandle.

Convection continues to fire ahead of the cold front along the
dryline and significant instability has pooled ahead of the boundary
with CAPE values approaching 4000J/Kg into southeast South Dakota
and 0-3km bulk shear values at or above 40kt. This is a favorable
environment to support convection and expect upscale growth of
current activity as it spreads into eastern Nebraska with a
continued threat of large hail and damaging wind until the cold
front pushes everything off to our east early this evening.

Synoptic forcing and dynamic energy is rich with a favorable upper
jet structure and sharp trof driving surface features. This is
enhancing low level wind flow and conditions will remain quite
blustery both ahead and behind the front, and expect a good amount
of wind across the area through Friday afternoon. Guidance is
showing another short wave rotating around the upper trof and
bringing some mid level moisture in from the northwest. Bufkit model
soundings are also showing some small amount of elevated
instability. With so much dry air lower in the boundary layer near
the surface expect mainly virga from some elevated cumulus towers
but the likelihood of anything reaching the ground is slim so will
maintain a dry forecast through the end of the workweek.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Ensemble guidance indicates a sluggish pattern with a western trof
gradually giving way to a ridge by early next week, with
opportunities for short wave energy to undercut the ridge. So after
dry conditions Friday and through the first part of the weekend, a
frontal boundary will waver around the High Plains and become a
corridor for convective development through the first part of next
week with periods of showers and thunderstorms. Timing and location
of convection, as well as any potential severe threat will become
more clear in the coming days.

Temperatures will be at or above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Winds will
increase this afternoon out of the west with gust of 30kts
possible. Winds may switch a little more west northwesterly this
evening with winds still remaining gusty around 20 to 30 kts,
decreasing overnight to around 10 kts. Winds increasing across
western and northern Sandhills late tomorrow morning, gust up to
25 kts possible out of the west. There will also be some brief low
level wind shear tonight around 45 kts. As far as thunderstorm
chances there may be some thunderstorms across the eastern portion
of the forecast area, generally east of highway 83. Thunderstorm
chances will be mainly this afternoon into the early evening
hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Critical fire weather conditions will persist into this evening
across southwest Nebraska zone 210 with near critical conditions
elsewhere in a persistent warm and dry air airmass. Southerly winds
will abruptly shift to the west with gusts at or above 45mph late
this afternoon as a cold front moves thorugh. Humidity recovery
tonight will be very poor with values ranging from 45% in the
southwest to 60% far north.

Near critical conditions are expected Friday. No headline is planned
at the moment as the lowest humidity and highest winds are not
colocated. Humidity recovery Friday night will be poor as well with
values generally 50 to 60%. Elevated fire weather exists Saturday,
mainly in the southwest, where humidity is the greater concern.
Monday and beyond, periodic precipitation chances exist and the fire
weather threat appears relatively low.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ210.

&&

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Gomez
FIRE WEATHER...MBS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1149 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-131700-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1149 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022 /1049 AM MDT Thu May 12 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop near Highway 183 this
afternoon, then grow and intensify as they move east through the
evening. Some storms may be strong or severe over north central
Nebraska. The main threats are very large hail and damaging
winds, although a brief tornado is also possible.

The combination of very warm temperatures, very dry air, and
breezy west winds will result in critical fire weather conditions
for southwest Nebraska. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for fire
zone 210.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Near critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Friday due
to continued breezy winds and dry air.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

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