During the early part of the afternoon, winds shifted to the northwest across extreme Southwest Nebraska. Along with the wind shift, the winds also increased with gusts of 55-79 mph recorded via ASOS/AWOS stations and other mesonet stations across Dundy, Hitchcock, and Red Willow counties.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GLD wrote it up.
During the early part of the afternoon, winds shifted to the northwest across extreme Southwest Nebraska. Along with the wind shift, the winds also increased with gusts of 55-79 mph recorded via ASOS/AWOS stations and other mesonet stations across Dundy, Hitchcock, and Red Willow counties. In Red Willow, there was some localized reduction in visibility to 5 miles from blowing dust due to dry soil conditions and the strong winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 4, 10:15 AM MST, 1 hour 44 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1015 AM MST Tue Jan 4 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 AM MST Tue Jan 4 2022 Forecast through the rest of today is generally on track. Northwest winds gusting up to 40 have developed within the last hour with current temperatures ranging from the lower 40s in Gove county to the lower and middle 50s across Dundy county and Cheyenne county Kansas. The main change to the forecast today was to add patchy blowing dust to the forecast for areas generally along and north of Interstate 70. Local ongoing research into blowing dust/dust storms favors the possibility of blowing dust in this area with the source region somewhere up around Fort Morgan and Sterling, Colorado. Downstream of this area soil moisture at the surface should be dry enough from recent snow melt to support some lofting of the dirt into the atmosphere and get carried downstream into areas along and north of the interstate. Best time for this is somewhere in the 18z-22z timeframe. Otherwise, am still expecting wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph with a few higher gusts possible. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 40s to around 60, warmest in the Norton and Hill City areas. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 307 AM MST Tue Jan 4 2022 Latest satellite and upper air analysis show a trough moving onto the Plains. Accompanying the trough was a corridor of cloud cover. A cold front was moving south through Montana. Behind the front light to moderate snow was falling. Today a pre-frontal trough will move through the forecast area in the morning. Behind the trough winds will turn to the north and increase. During the early afternoon northwest winds will reach a peak, then gradually decline through the afternoon. Low level lapse rates, plus CAA from the snow pack to the northwest of the forecast area, lower confidence that wind gusts of 58 MPH will occur. The CAA from the snowpack should cause the lapse rates just off the surface to become more stable and thus limit some of the mixing of the stronger winds to the ground. Another limitation is by the time the stout inversion mixes out, the high winds should be above the mixed layer for the most part. The RAP model brings the high winds through earlier, closer to noon. If this happens the high winds may mix down because these winds will be much closer to the surface compared to the afternoon. However the HREF and model consensus have the highest wind gusts occurring in the early afternoon, so trended the forecast that direction. In addition, a probability assessment of the likelihood of wind gusts exceeding 57 MPH is around 20% for Yuma, with lower probabilities to the east. With the above considerations in mind, confidence is just low enough to not issue a high wind warning for Yuma County. However, cannot rule out an infrequent gust of 58 MPH occurring in the Yuma area during the early afternoon. Wind gusts for the most part should be around 55 MPH. Otherwise highs will be slightly warmer today than yesterday. The relative humidity will fall to just under 20% for Sherman and parts of the surrounding counties. Due to the localized nature of the lower relative humidity, do not plan to issue a fire weather hazard at this time. Blowing dust could occur with the very strong winds today, mainly in the northwest quadrant of the forecast area. The one uncertainty is will the low level lapse rates be unstable enough to promote mixing of the dust upward. If they are not, the dust will likely not get off the ground. The upwind snowpack will have an impact on the temperatures, the question is how much of an impact given the melting from yesterday. Tonight the cold front, currently in Montana, will sweep through the forecast area. Behind the front the northwest winds will gradually decline and turn to the southwest. Behind it lows will be around 10 degrees. Wednesday highs will be much colder than today due to the cooler air mass in place. Current forecast may still be slightly on the warm side. During the afternoon a weak upper level trough will move trough and an arctic front will begin to move in from the north. Isentropic lift will accompany the front, and the environment over the northern part of the forecast area will begin to saturate due to moisture and continued CAA. This should cause snow to move in from the north with the isentropic lift and saturated environment. Wednesday evening an arctic front will move through the rest of the forecast area. Behind it snow will move through as well. Isentropic lift will be strongest, and last the longest over the northeast half of the forecast area. Meanwhile there will be some frontogenesis, however at this point it appears to be rather disorganized. There may be some pockets of convective instability, or near convective instability. This could add to the snow amount potential. Based on the quick moving nature, the short duration of the convective instability, and the disorganized frontogenesis, snow fall amounts will be on the light side. The current forecast for snow totals has not changed much over the last day or so, which adds confidence to the forecast. Isentropic lift will end from west to east after midnight as the upper level trough axis moves through. This will cause snow to end from west to east after midnight. Aside from the snow, wind chills will be between -15F and -25F. This will make for a miserable night and morning on Thursday. On a side note, the winds for Wednesday evening may not be high enough. A shallow mixed layer forms behind the arctic front and rapid pressure rises occur behind the front of 10-20mb per six hours. Am thinking this will generation gusty winds, which could be stronger than the forecast. The current forecast is already higher than most model data. These winds will likely lead to blowing snow. After midnight the mixed layer winds decline and the rapid pressure rises move south of the forecast area. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 115 AM MST Tue Jan 4 2022 Thursday will be the coldest day of the period with Arctic air entrenched in the area. Highs will be in the teens. However, temperatures will quickly rebound as a ridge rebuilds over the central CONUS for Friday and Saturday. It will be breezy on Saturday behind the next front which will be mainly dry. Models do suggest some very light sprinkles or flurries possible with the upper trough Saturday night/Sunday morning, but impacts should be minimal. Only a slight cool down expected behind the front for Sunday with highs in the lower 40s, then warming into the 50s for Monday under shortwave ridging. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1010 AM MST Tue Jan 4 2022 KGLD...VFR conditions through the period. Northwest winds gusting up to 45kts or so from taf issuance through the afternoon will subside quickly this evening, falling below 12kts. After midnight winds back to the west at speeds up to 10kts. For Wednesday morning winds continue to back to the southwest then southeast with speeds increasing late where gusts up to 30kts possible. KMCK...VFR conditions through the period. West-northwest winds gusting up to 40kts or so from taf issuance through the afternoon will subside quickly this evening, falling below 12kts. After midnight winds remain from the northwest at speeds up to 10kts. For Wednesday morning winds become light and variable early then establish an east-northeast direction at speeds up to 10kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && UPDATE...99 SHORT TERM...JTL LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...99
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Goodland KS 940 AM MST Tue Jan 4 2022 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-051300- Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas- Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock- Red Willow- 940 AM MST Tue Jan 4 2022 /1040 AM CST Tue Jan 4 2022/ This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska... northwest Kansas and east central Colorado. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... Very strong northwest winds gusting up to 55 mph are expected over Yuma, Dundy, and Cheyenne counties this afternoon. Peak wind gusts will occur during the early afternoon. An infrequent gust close to 60 MPH cannot be ruled out for Yuma County. Elsewhere, wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph are expected. Blowing dust producing reduced visibilities will be possible through mid afternoon, mainly along and north of Interstate 70. Near critical fire weather conditions are expected through this afternoon for Sherman and Wallace counties in Kansas, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado. Outdoor burning is not advised. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Up to three inches of snow may occur for Red Willow and parts of Hitchcock and Norton counties Wednesday night. Reduced visibility in the falling and blowing snow is likely. Wind chill readings Thursday morning are expected to fall into the 15 to 25 below zero range. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. We would appreciate any reports of blowing dust via telephone and social media.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1135 AM MST TUE JAN 4 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1127 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 17 N FLAGLER 39.53N 103.02W
01/04/2022 M52 MPH KIT CARSON CO MESONET
MESONET STATION EW7003 17 N FLAGLER.
&&
MRCPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1142 AM MST TUE JAN 4 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1141 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BURLINGTON 39.23N 102.28W
01/04/2022 M54 MPH KIT CARSON CO ASOS
ASOS STATION KITR BURLINGTON CO AIRPORT. 6SM
VISIBILITY.
&&
MRCPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1148 AM MST TUE JAN 4 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1130 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SAINT FRANCIS 39.77N 101.80W
01/04/2022 M52 MPH CHEYENNE KS AWOS
AWOS STATION KSYF ST. FRANCIS CITY.
&&
MRCPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1154 AM MST TUE JAN 4 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1140 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BURLINGTON 39.23N 102.28W
01/04/2022 M62 MPH KIT CARSON CO ASOS
ASOS STATION KITR BURLINGTON CO AIRPORT. 4SM
VISIBILITY.
&&
MRCPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1156 AM MST TUE JAN 4 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1152 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E MCCOOK 40.20N 100.58W
01/04/2022 M26 MPH RED WILLOW NE ASOS
ASOS STATION KMCK MCCOOK AIRPORT. 5SM
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST.
&&
MRCPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1157 AM MST TUE JAN 4 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1110 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SAINT FRANCIS 39.77N 101.80W
01/04/2022 M51 MPH CHEYENNE KS AWOS
CORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND GST REPORT
FROM SAINT FRANCIS. AWOS STATION KSYF ST.
FRANCIS CITY. 7SM VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING
DUST.
&&
MRCThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Strong northwest winds produced wind gusts up to 59 mph. The strongest winds were observed northwest of the town of Max, Nebraska.
Strong northwest winds moved across Hitchcock County producing wind gusts up to 79 mph. The strongest wind gusts were measured in Trenton, Nebraska.
Strong northwest winds moved across Hitchcock County producing wind gusts of 55-69 mph. The strongest wind gusts were measured in McCook, Nebraska where there were also localized reports of blowing dust with visibility as low as 5 miles due to the dry soil conditions.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, January 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1003393, 1003396, 1003401.