Drought in Montana, March 1 to 31, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
627 PM MST Mon Feb 28 2022

.DISCUSSION...

Evening Update (0120Z):
Multiple models and national WPC office guidance suggests that we
already can expect some mixed precipitation in our NE zones
(Sheridan County as early as this evening). As I write, the precip
sensor at the Plentywood airport is showing unknown precip, which
usually indicates freezing rain. Will make a phone call there to
verify, but I felt that updating the forecast for now and through
the next 24 hours was warranted to get the latest observational
and best model data in there for an accurate aviation forecast as
well. Expecting an initial push of freezing rain for Sheridan
county this evening, then a bit more widespread Tuesday morning.
Stationary front over the area will make the finer details a bit
more complicated over the next few days.     -BMickelson

Previous Afternoon Update (2130z):
This morning's models didn't change too much from the previous.
There continues to be a small chance of freezing rain late tonight
into Tuesday for mainly Sheridan County. Then a larger push of
moisture moves into the CWA Wednesday Night with some areas
possibly getting over a tenth of an inch in liquid equivalent,
that would result in several inches of snow and some possibility
of freezing rain as well.

The going messaging for this has not changed.

Tomorrow looks to be the last day for temperatures above normal
for most of the area then a prolonged stretch of cooler than
normal temperatures can be expected through this weekend.

Precipitation intensity will diminish Friday but lingers into
Saturday then should end by early next week.

The models have increased precipitation amounts this morning. When
all is said and done, many areas may receive over a half inch of
liquid precipitation; a welcomed and beneficial next several days
to week for many water users. TFJ
Morning Discussion...
High pressure currently over the region will move to the east this
morning. The region will see some chinook arch clouds at times
during the day today. Another warm day is expected with highs 45
to 55 in most areas with somewhat cooler temperatures near the
Canadian Border.

A wave with a 130 knot jet max will move through the region
this afternoon and evening with a warm front that will become a
quasi- stationary front late tonight and Tuesday near the NE
corner of Montana. This system will bring a chance for
precipitation across the region tonight that will be light rain in
most areas but in the NE corner of the state, temperatures will
be below freezing which will allow for a mix of light rain, sleet,
freezing rain, and light snow. The chances for a wintry mix
continues in the NE corner of the state on Tuesday as the front
remains quasi-stationary. To the south of the front, it will be a
warm day with highs in the 50s to near 60 while temperatures will
only be in the 30s near the front on Tuesday.

The front moves south Tuesday Night and Wednesday as a cold front.
Moisture moves in from the west on Wednesday which will bring
increasing chances for a wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing
rain depending on temperatures. The front drifts to the south of
the forecast area Wednesday Night which will turn the precip type
into a mix of snow and freezing rain.

Moisture will continue to stream into the area late in the week
and into the weekend as a slow moving storm system moves into the
area with colder temperatures and frequent chances for snow mixed
at times with freezing rain.

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0122Z

FLIGHT CAT: VFR through this evening with some VCSH, VFR/MVFR
late tonight with scattered low ceilings. Then MVFR some IFR with
mixed precip briefly Tuesday morning.

LLWS: Low level winds shear will occur at times tonight.

DISCUSSION: Leftover Atmospheric river of moisture from the
Pacific will continue to stream through the region, as some low-
level clouds will sneak in later tonight. A stationary front
draped over NE Montana will delineate between mix precip N of US
Highway 2 and rain south of US Highway 2.

WIND: Mainly light and variable this evening through Tuesday
morning, then setting up from the west Tuesday afternoon up to 15
kts, south of the stationary front.

TFJ/Bmickelson

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow