High Wind in Montana, June 17, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1144 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022

.AVIATION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

A taste of summer is expected today and Saturday, with many areas
seeing temperatures rise into the upper 80s and 90s. A few
isolated thunderstorms will also be possible, though these should
largely remain over the mountains today.

&&

.UPDATE...

The morning update has been published. Southerly flow aloft will
continue to increase as the Northern Rockies remain on the ascent
side of a Pacific upper level low. Southerly surface winds will
will become gusty over southwest MT by this afternoon, with gusts
over 50 mph expected at times, especially for the north- south
oriented valleys. For this reason, the High Wind Warning for
Beaverhead and Madison counties will remain as is. weak
disturbances moving through the southerly flow aloft may bring a
few showers over the eastern portions of North- central/North-
central MT later this morning, with scattered afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms expected along the Northern Divide. Pops
and QPF were freshened with the latest hi- res guidance;
Otherwise, the short term forecast is in good shape. -RCG

&&

.AVIATION...
1150 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 (17/18Z TAF period)

Mainly VFR conditions with high clouds are expected over the next 24
hours, though isolated showers or thunderstorms may bring brief MVFR
conditions. Expect some gusty winds particularly in SW MT.

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022/

As an upper level trough continues to meander around the Western
Pacific through the end of the work week, deep southerly flow will
continue to pump very warm air into the region. This push of warm
air will result in widespread highs in the mid 80s to over 90
degrees today, with just slightly cooler temperatures on Saturday.
Along with this warm air mass will be a little bit of moisture,
which may help to fuel a few afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms across the area. Most of these storms should be your
average run of the mill thunderstorms, but a few of the storms may
try to bring some gusty winds.

Speaking of gusty winds, I have elected to let the ongoing High
Wind Watches and Warnings continue as is for the moment. Model
guidance suggests that both days should be a fairly similar setup,
with winds aloft at 700 mb topping out around 40-45 knots (or
~50-55 mph). That said, I can see a few spots hitting high wind
criteria today, especially at higher elevations.

The first piece of this system will push eastward on Sunday,
bringing cooler temperatures to Montana in its wake. However, the
next system will follow right on its heels, though this second
system may be more of a rain maker than anything else. Current
model projections shows that the heaviest precipitation will
likely be centered on Southwestern Montana and areas around the
Little Belt and Snowy Mountains, though there remains a very large
amounts of uncertainty with this system.

As we get further into next week, expect zonal (west to east)
winds to continue, which will bring gradually increasing
temperatures along with a scattering of rain showers and
thunderstorms to the area through at least the middle of next
week. Ludwig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  93  54  85  50 /   0   0  20  40
CTB  85  54  76  49 /  10  20  20  30
HLN  93  59  84  54 /   0  10  30  40
BZN  90  57  83  50 /  10   0  10  30
WYS  78  45  72  41 /  30  10  10  30
DLN  85  54  75  46 /   0  10  20  30
HVR  94  59  89  56 /  20  10   0  30
LWT  91  60  87  51 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Jefferson...Madison.

High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening Beaverhead...
Madison.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
131 PM MDT FRI JUN 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NNE CAMERON           45.27N 111.65W
06/17/2022  M55 MPH          MADISON            MT   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KEKS ENNIS BIG SKY AWOS.

1105 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ENE DILLON            45.25N 112.55W
06/17/2022  M54 MPH          BEAVERHEAD         MT   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KDLN DILLON AIRPORT.

1152 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 7 ESE HILGER            47.22N 109.22W
06/17/2022  M52 MPH          FERGUS             MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION JPKM8 JUDITH PEAK RAWS.

0445 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 18 W HOGELAND           48.87N 109.05W
06/17/2022  M50 MPH          BLAINE             MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTM37 19.9 N ZURICH
            (MT-MESO).

0100 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 7 N DELL                44.81N 112.72W
06/17/2022  M50 MPH          BEAVERHEAD         MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTM16 6.6 N DELL (MT-MESO).

1004 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SSW BIG SKY           45.17N 111.36W
06/17/2022  M49 MPH          GALLATIN           MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION YLWM8 YELLOW MULE RAWS.

1205 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 21 SW LIMA              44.47N 112.95W
06/17/2022  M48 MPH          BEAVERHEAD         MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION HRKM8 HARKNESS RAWS.

1247 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE MCALLISTER        45.50N 111.70W
06/17/2022  M48 MPH          MADISON            MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTNOR NORRIS HILL (MT DOT).

0600 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 WSW BIG SKY           45.23N 111.45W
06/17/2022  M47 MPH          MADISON            MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION YCTIM YELLOWSTONE CLUB -
            AVALANCHE.

0915 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW WEST YELLOWSTONE  44.67N 111.12W
06/17/2022  M47 MPH          GALLATIN           MT   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KWYS W YELLOWSTONE AWOS.

1036 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 E GALLATIN GATEWAY    45.58N 111.10W
06/17/2022  M46 MPH          GALLATIN           MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION FW1650 BOZEMAN.

1216 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSW ENNIS             45.30N 111.75W
06/17/2022  M46 MPH          MADISON            MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION ENNM8 ENNIS RAWS.

1259 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NE LIMA               44.69N 112.54W
06/17/2022  M46 MPH          BEAVERHEAD         MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION LMRM8 ANTELOPE RAWS.

1215 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE TWIN BRIDGES      45.54N 112.30W
06/17/2022  M45 MPH          MADISON            MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION KRVF RUBY VALLEY FIELD
            AIRPORT.

0110 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST MONIDA                  44.56N 112.31W
06/17/2022  M45 MPH          BEAVERHEAD         MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTMQM MONIDA PASS (MT DOT).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
213 PM MDT FRI JUN 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ENE DILLON            45.25N 112.55W
06/17/2022  M56 MPH          BEAVERHEAD         MT   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KDLN DILLON AIRPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
214 PM MDT FRI JUN 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 11 SW BASIN             46.14N 112.40W
06/17/2022  M47 MPH          JEFFERSON          MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTELK ELK PARK (MT DOT).

&&