NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 4, 10:10 AM MST, 2 hours 2 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 4, 10:10 AM MST, 2 hours 2 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1110 AM MDT Mon Apr 4 2022
...Aviation Section Updated...
.SYNOPSIS...
A strengthening disturbance brings the potential for widespread
strong winds, increased shower activity, and accumulating mountain
snow this afternoon through Tuesday evening. Drier and warmer
weather returns for the latter half of the week. Another disturbance
moves into the region this weekend, likely bringing periods of
showers and a dip in temperatures.
&&
.Update...
Morning update has been published, with primary focus and
adjustments made to PoPs and winds to account for latest Hi-Res
and probabilistic data. Widespread and prolonged High Wind event
is expected across much of the Northern Rockies from this
afternoon/evening through Tuesday afternoon/evening. Wind speeds
and gusts with this High Wind event may even approach the high end
spectrum, especially along and west of the I-15 corridor from
North Central through Southwest Montana where wind gusts may
exceed 75 mph (areas across Glacier, Toole, Pondera, Teton, and
Northern Lewis and Clark Counties could even approach 90 mph).
Across the remainder of the CWA, frequent wind gusts of 60 to 75
mph should be expected. In addition to the very strong winds,
rain/snow can be expected, most notably over the mountains and
along the strong Pacific cold front. Given how dynamic this storm
system will be moving across the Northern Rockies, instances of
lightning and thunder are expected. Localized reductions in
visibility due to falling precipitation are possible, especially
with the most intense precipitation, which is expected to
accompany the Pacific cold front. Finally, given below normal
precipitation across the region for much of the past 6 months to
year, blowing dust could occur. Should blowing dust occur, expect
significant reductions in visibility. - Moldan
&&
.AVIATION...
1110 AM MDT Mon Apr 4 2022 (04/18Z TAF period)
While some IFR/MVFR conditions can't be ruled out this afternoon and
tonight due to rain/snow showers, especially between 21z this
afternoon and 12z Tuesday, primarily VFR conditions are expected
throughout the TAF period. Biggest story and concern over the next
24 hours will be winds, with winds increasing through the afternoon
hours and becoming very strong by this evening and then persisting
though much of the day on Tuesday. Frequent wind gusts in excess of
50kts are expected at all terminals from late this afternoon/early
this evening through the day on Tuesday, with some instances of wind
gusts approaching 65-75kts. Mountain wave turbulence is likely.
Mountain obscuration will persist through the day on Tuesday. -
Moldan
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 516 AM MDT Mon Apr 4 2022/
The brief period with quiet conditions comes to an end as the weak
upper-level ridge exits the region to the east. An active weather
pattern returns beginning this afternoon with possible snow showers,
specifically along the Divide, then extending eastward in the form
of rain across the plains.
Primary concern is the widespread high winds across the region,
associated with a powerful Polar Jet Stream aloft. Guidance provided
by the NBM v4.1 suggests >80% confidence of region-wide gusts in
excess of 48 knots and >60% confidence of gusts in excess of 56
knots are expected, with sustained winds in the neighborhood of 30
to 35 mph. Localized areas could expect even stronger gusts due to
downsloping winds. This isn't even factoring in any convective
enhancement to the winds, particularly along the Hi-Line as the
surface low propagates eastward along the Canadian border,
strengthening the pressure gradient, which could increase winds even
more than displayed by ensemble guidance.
The magnitude of these strong winds could create difficult travel
conditions for high-profile vehicles, cause tree and/or property
damage, and blow away unsecured objects. Current wind highlights
have High Wind Warnings along the Rocky Mountain Front and parts of
Southwest Montana, with High Wind Watches elsewhere; however, have
opted to upgrading existing Watches across the region, in accordance
to the confidence and trends supported from current guidance.
Furthermore, due to the continued drought across the region and lack
of consistent moisture, soil moisture content may still be dry over
the plains and parts of the Southwest valleys and could lead to
blowing dust concerns ahead of the precipitation associated with the
frontal passage. The dry and windy conditions from this event may
also pose risk to fire weather concerns; however, the junction of
cooler temperatures behind the front and scattered shower activity
should dampen these concerns.
Secondary concern is the accumulating snow along mountain passes,
especially Marias Pass, where the potential for snow total range
between 1 and 5 inches, and higher amounts are possible above pass
level. With the aforementioned winds, blowing/drifting snow is
possible at mountain/pass level. Accumulating snow is less of a
concern for lower elevations, though there is potential for moderate
to heavy convective showers with the frontal passage that moves into
the region late this afternoon. Winter Weather Advisories currently
exist along the Rocky Mountain Front and far western portions of the
CWA.
By Wednesday, the shortwave trough exits to the east, high pressure
ridging rebuilds over the western CONUS extending well into western
Canada. For this period, conditions will be quiet again, with light
breezy winds. Temperatures will begin to rebound during the latter
half of the week, with many locations in the lower to mid 70s by
Friday. This will be short-lived though, as another trough moves in
from the Pacific over the weekend. Periods of brief rain/snow
showers are likely, as well as a dip in the temperatures; however,
confidence is low regarding specific details at this time. - Pierce
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 57 30 45 30 / 50 20 10 20
CTB 52 29 43 28 / 40 10 20 20
HLN 56 28 43 27 / 90 70 30 10
BZN 54 25 40 22 / 90 100 40 10
WYS 44 13 33 8 / 90 100 50 20
DLN 54 23 38 19 / 80 100 30 0
HVR 59 32 48 33 / 40 20 50 60
LWT 55 27 41 28 / 50 50 20 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight MDT
Tuesday night Blaine...Broadwater...Cascade...Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern
Teton...Fergus...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...Liberty...
Meagher...Toole.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 AM MDT
Tuesday Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Gallatin...
Jefferson...Madison...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.
High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT Tuesday Beaverhead...Gallatin...
Madison.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT Tuesday Beaverhead.
High Wind Warning until midnight MDT Tuesday night Eastern
Glacier...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM MDT Wednesday Northern Rocky
Mountain Front.
&&
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