Heavy rainfall occurred during the late evening of the 29th into the early morning of the 30th as a low level jet interacted with a stalled front. Several locations received over three inches of rain with some reporting six inches in a 3-4 hour period.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
Heavy rainfall occurred during the late evening of the 29th into the early morning of the 30th as a low level jet interacted with a stalled front. Several locations received over three inches of rain with some reporting six inches in a 3-4 hour period.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 29, 10:37 PM CST, 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1137 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Key Messages: 1. Increasing potential for heavy rainfall and flooding overnight into Saturday. 2. Cooler temperatures are expected through the weekend. 3. Additional rainfall chances Saturday night into Sunday. 4. Excessive heat is likely next week. .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Radar and satellite imagery depict an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across southern Missouri. Expect this activity to continue through the late afternoon into this evening. Heavy downpours and lightning will be the primary threats with any thunderstorms that develop. Meanwhile, most of the area should remain dry through the evening. Much cooler temperatures are expected through the weekend. Cloud cover and precipitation will keep most of the area in the upper 70s on Saturday and 80s on Sunday. The main attention focuses on tonight into Saturday morning where high probabilities of precipitation (60-80%) exist. The 850mb front is expected to lift north into southern Missouri. Additional synoptic support of a modest 30 knot low level jet nosing into the area and the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak. Further forcing will be aided by shortwave energy moving off the Plains. An ample amount of moisture through the atmosphere is well depicted by the Advected Layered Precipitable Water satellite tool that displays moisture content through four layers in the vertical profile. Model soundings feature PWAT values approaching 2 inches or higher. This aligns with the 90- 99th percentile for late July. That being said, the setup would support heavy rainfall overnight into Saturday. Current high res ensemble guidance suggests the area of highest potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be south of Interstate 44 and east of the Highway 65, primarily in the vicinity of the Highway 60 corridor. Additional favorable environmental factors supporting heavy rainfall include west to east orientation of repeated thunderstorm development along the frontal boundary. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches would be common, resulting in a localized threat for flooding. Uncertainties still remain in how the mesoscale features come together, playing a key role in heavy rainfall being realized. Pinpointing exact rainfall totals can be difficult with a strong influence of mesoscale features. NBM guidance continues to highlight areas across southeast Kansas into southwest/south central Missouri seeing a widespread 1 to 3 inches through Sunday. Areas north of Interstate 44 corridor could see closer to 0.5 to 1 inch storm total through Sunday given the more favorable setup trending south. Of particular note, recent HREF guidance Localized Probability Matched Mean (LPMM) depicts a swath of 2 to 5 inches, with pockets exceeding 5+ inches across southern Missouri. While it is not expected for the heavy rainfall amounts to be realized areawide, localized corridors of flooding will remain very realistic. HREF Probabilities of Exceeding 10 year Average Return Interval (ARI) in 6 hours during this time period are in excess of 50%, with probabilities of exceeding 100 year ARI in 6 hours around 30%. This will need to be monitored closely for forecast adjustments and potential issuance of a Flood Watch if necessary. Additional rainfall chances exist Saturday night into Sunday morning. Current ensemble guidance suggest this activity would remain across southern Missouri, in the same area of focus as previously mentioned. Though some mesoscale factors remain uncertain during this time period, its plausible additional heavy rainfall may impact the area. Precipitation chances diminish through Sunday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 By Monday, a large upper level ridge will begin to build into the region. NBM guidance suggest highs in the middle to upper 90s as early as Tuesday, with afternoon heat index values exceeding 100 degrees. WPC Heat Index Probabilities through next week indicate high probabilities (> 70%) of greater than 100, and medium probabilities (40-70%) of greater than 105. The return of excessive heat will be accompanied by mostly dry conditions with minimal rainfall chances in the forecast. The return of heat and dry conditions could result in the persistence of the drought areawide. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 We are expecting convection to expand overnight and into Saturday over southern MO including the TAF sites. Mostly scattered convection at first and then expanding in coverage as we get closer to morning. VFR conditions will eventually become MVFR and IFR for much of Saturday. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Lindenberg
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 742 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-310045- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 742 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Limited lightning risk. Elevated excessive rainfall risk DISCUSSION... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening across southern Missouri. Most locations will remain dry through this evening. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop overnight into Saturday morning. There is the potential for localized heavy rainfall and flooding into Saturday morning where repeated rounds of thunderstorms occur. However, uncertainty remains on the exact locations of the heaviest rainfall occur across southern Missouri. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Wednesday. A cold front will stall near the area Saturday and Sunday. Active weather will occur near the front with periods of showers and thunderstorms expected. Despite the drought, there will be a risk for some flash flooding with any training thunderstorms that impact areas for an extended period of time. No severe weather is expected at this time. Excessive heat is expected to return next week with heat index values near or above 100 degrees from Tuesday through the end of the week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket This product in graphical format...along with other weather... hydrological and climate information...at http://www.weather.gov/sgf Lindenberg
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 32 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:13 UTC.
1 flood, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rainfall caused the low water area on Selmore road to become flooded and impassable.
The little North Fork River at Thornfield reached flood stage impacting the low water crossing. The river rose four feet in a short period of time.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1045524, 1045523.