A couple of isolated severe thunderstorms occurred during the evening hours. The storms occurred on the warm side of a weak frontal boundary that extended from central Illinois to the Ozarks of southwest Missouri.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A couple of isolated severe thunderstorms occurred during the evening hours. The storms occurred on the warm side of a weak frontal boundary that extended from central Illinois to the Ozarks of southwest Missouri. Wind shear was rather weak, but strong instability lingered through the evening hours. Mixed-layer capes were still around 2000 j/kg late in the evening.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 6:48 PM CST, 24 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 748 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 748 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Updated aviation discussion. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Latest surface analysis shows a surface low just north of St. Louis, with a weak boundary extending westward. Models show the low moving slowly east northeast, allowing this boundary to meander north of our region through Monday, with some potential of it sinking into our northern counties from time to time. Models also show an upper level trof slowly moving through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Sunday into Monday. Based on the latest HRRR, which has done pretty well today, isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will spread across all but our southeast counties by 06z tonight, with increasing coverage from northwest to southeast overnight. With the approach of the upper trof, went with likely to categorical PoPs for showers and storms through the day Sunday into Sunday evening for the entire PAH forecast area. Chances will then slowly decrease from northwest to southeast from late Sunday night through Monday evening as the surface boundary and upper trof move through, with a return of dry conditions by late Monday night. Rainfall totals from tonight through Monday evening will range from 1 to 2 inches, with locally high amounts possible. WPC has included our entire area in a slight risk for Excessive Rainfall for Sunday, and SPC has us in a Marginal Risk for severe Sunday. Most areas will just be grateful for the much needed rainfall. South winds will keeps temperatures above normal tonight with lows in the 72 to 76 degree range. High temperatures will be below normal Sunday due to the clouds and precipitation, with highs near 80 degrees north to the upper 80s south. Lows Sunday night will be around 70 degrees, then highs Monday will jump back up a few degrees to the middle 80s to around 90 degrees. Lows Monday night will again be around 70 degrees. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 The main concern in the extended portion of the forecast will be the return of high heat and humidity concerns. Following the Sunday-Monday unsettled period, yet another stout 591-594 dm ridge will begin to build over the region from the Central Plains. This will result in high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s on Tuesday and middle 90s to lower 100s on Wednesday. With dew point temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat index values will reach 100 to 105 degrees Tuesday and 105 to 110 degrees Wednesday. If this holds, heat headlines will be necessary on Wednesday. We'll get some relief late Wednesday into Thursday, as a weak cool front moves through the forecast area. This front could kick off isolated shower and thunderstorm activity, primarily in across SW IN into the KY Pennyrile. The post-frontal airmass will be slightly cooler and drier. High temperatures will range from the lower to middle 90s both Thursday and Friday. However, with dew point temperatures in the lower to middle 60s, peak heat index values will stay in the 95 to 100 degree range. Overnight low temperatures throughout the period will range from the upper 60s to middle 70s. && .AVIATION... Issued at 748 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 In general, cigs/vsbys across the region are expected to stay VFR through mid-morning Sun. However, it is possible that brief reductions in vsby may occur with shower and mostly isolated tstm activity that is expected to develop/move in overnight from the northwest. The area with the greatest probability of MVFR cigs will be southern IL/southwestern IN from mid-morning through much of the afternoon. This will be tied with the best probability of rainfall, which may intermittently restrict vsbys. Winds will be on the light side and mainly southwesterly to southerly overnight, picking up only a little (AOB 10 knots sustained) in the daytime outside of tstms, but may tend to be quite variable in direction through the period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...RST LONG TERM...DWS AVIATION...RST
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 332 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-172045- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 332 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Scattered thunderstorms are expected Sunday into Monday. High rainfall rates with stronger storms may cause local flooding concerns late Sunday into Sunday night. Overall, most of the area will benefit from even heavier rainfall given the rather dry conditions. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Sunday evening. Heat index values from 100 to around 105 degrees will return by Tuesday, with readings of 105 to 110 degrees on Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated on Sunday at this time, but rainfall reports would be appreciated.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
800 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022
MOZ107-170130-
Carter MO-
800 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Carter
County through 830 PM CDT...
At 759 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fremont, or 10 miles southwest of Van Buren, moving southeast at 20
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Carter
County.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3703 9122 3689 9095 3682 9097 3683 9122
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 300DEG 17KT 3692 9117
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ATLThe St Louis radar (KLSX), 199 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:14 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees and power lines were down on County Road 125 south of U.S. Highway 60. A large tree was blocking part of State Route C. Other tree damage occurred near the intersection of State Route C and County Road 3280.
A canopy was blown away.
A tree and power lines were down on County Road 307.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1035701, 1035700, 1035702, 1035703.