A weak upper-level trough extended from the Ohio River Valley into northern Arkansas. This triggered scattered showers and thunderstorms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A weak upper-level trough extended from the Ohio River Valley into northern Arkansas. This triggered scattered showers and thunderstorms. Outflow boundaries caused additional slow-moving showers and thunderstorms to initiate. Some heavy rainfall was the result of these storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 29, 6:33 PM CST, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 733 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 .UPDATE... Diurnal convection continues across portions of northeast MS and West TN this evening but remains loosely organized at best. Instability is still strong with MLCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg and is uncapped across most of the area. This activity will likely wane over the next few hours, but may not dissipate altogether like previous nights. Looking upstream across northern AR and southeast MO, more organized convection is moving south ahead of a prefrontal trough that will dip into the area overnight. Latest CAM guidance shows this convection holding together as it moves southeast into the CWA over the next several hours, holding together until reaching I-40. RAP progs indicate effective bulk shear increasing to 20-25 kts, giving this cluster of storms a little boost while large-scale forcing for ascent will increase this evening downstream of an approaching shortwave trough. The severe weather threat will remain low, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out with gusty winds and/or small hail. Of greater concern is the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Precipitable water near 2.2" and a high melting level suggest the potential for efficient rainfall producing storms with a potential for training. The 12z HREF localized probability max mean shows a decent coverage of 1-2" rainfall amounts with localized higher totals, mainly north of I-40. PoPs and sky cover were increased for the first period. MJ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022/ DISCUSSION... Currently...A weak mid level trough extends from the OH Valley into northern Arkansas. Weak low level convergence is triggering scattered scattered showers and thunderstorms across West TN and N MS. Outflows from this activity are generating additional development that can be seen nicely on the KNQA 88D across the Memphis metro. Very high dewpoints combined with temps around 90 is producing heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees across the Mid-South. Tonight through Tuesday...This mainly diurnally driven convection will gradually dissipate with loss of heating early this evening. A very unstable airmass, PWs greater than 2 inches and slow movement could result in some isolated heavy rainfall amounts and localized flooding. A more potent mid level trough will move into the Great Lakes tonight and drive a cold front south. This front will push through the Mid-South on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms developing in advance of the front, over the I-44 corridor, will probably move into northern areas of the Mid- South around/after midnight. North MS will be mostly dry overnight. Shower and thunderstorm chances will to tail off north to south as the front moves through Tuesday. Still expect quite a bit of humidity tomorrow ahead of the front with dewpoints in the mid 70s. Heat index values will be near 105 possible from Memphis...south through the Delta region. Tuesday night through Friday...Drier air will filter in the region during this period with plenty of sunshine under upper level ridging. Expect dewpoints in the 60s and highs in the 80s to around 90. Weekend...A weak mid level trough will move over the area this weekend with increased humidity levels and chances for showers and thunderstorms returning. Models start to diverge early next week with some major difference between the operational GFS and ECMWF concerning the amount of upper ridging across the mid MS Valley. The GEFS points to a warmer/drier early next week while the EPS is cooler and wetter. Taking the middle road for now. SJM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 0640 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 SHRAs and TSRAs will affect MEM and TUP in the short term respectively. Thereafter, VFR conds shall prevail for a few hours. Another complex of TSRAs is expected to track SE through JBR and eventually affecting MEM around midnight. Carried VCTS at both of those sites and added a tempo for MEM and the accompanying wind shift. Winds will remain mostly light and variable overnight, shifting to the west and northwest by tomorrow afternoon behind a front. AC3 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Memphis TN 326 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017- 020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-302230- Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay- Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur- Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood- Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS- Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot- Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley- Yalobusha- 326 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas... the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Tonight Isolated heavy rain could result in localized flash flooding of low lying, flood prone or poor drainage areas across West Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel and northeast Arkansas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. SJM
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Memphis TN 723 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 TNZ088-089-300100- Fayette TN-Shelby TN- 723 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 ...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Fayette and southeastern Shelby Counties through 800 PM CDT... At 723 PM CDT, trained weather spotters reported a strong thunderstorm over Germantown, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Pea size hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Locations impacted include... Collierville, Germantown, Memphis, Macon, Piperton, Rossville, Kirk, Elba and Canadaville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. && LAT...LON 3503 8983 3509 8983 3518 8949 3503 8947 TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 261DEG 16KT 3506 8975 MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
815 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022
MSZ017-300200-
Itawamba MS-
815 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Itawamba County
through 900 PM CDT...
At 815 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fulton, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Fulton, Mantachie, Tremont, New Salem, Evergreen, Clay, Abney,
Eastman, Cardsville, Tilden, Bounds Crossroads, Dorsey, Jacinto and
Cadamy.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3411 8820 3411 8853 3433 8854 3438 8817
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 265DEG 9KT 3423 8843
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
SMWThe Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 50 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:00 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
South Eason Blvd. closed due to flooding near Itawamba Community College. The road was impassable.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, August 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1044686.