An upper level trough and a strong lake breeze combined with an unstable air mass to trigger a line of thunderstorms from Southern Ontario to western Pennsylvania. These storms increased in coverage and intensity as they swept eastward across western and North Central New York late afternoon into the evening.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BUF wrote it up.
An upper level trough and a strong lake breeze combined with an unstable air mass to trigger a line of thunderstorms from Southern Ontario to western Pennsylvania. These storms increased in coverage and intensity as they swept eastward across western and North Central New York late afternoon into the evening.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 29, 10:01 AM EST, 3 hours 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1101 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid today with heat indices reaching as high as the mid to
upper 90s. The sultry conditions should also trigger some scattered
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with these
becoming more numerous later tonight and Tuesday as a cold front
crosses our region. Behind the front, much cooler and less humid
conditions will return for midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today south-southwesterly flow will increase across the area in
between departing high pressure off the east coast and the next
upper trough/attendant frontal system working across the Upper
Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes...and will act to transport
even warmer and more humid air into our region. 850 mb temps will
push to between +17C and +19C areawide by early afternoon...and this
should be enough to support highs ranging from the mid to upper 80s
across the higher terrain to around 90/the lower 90s across the
lower elevations...with record high temperatures at our three
climate stations (Buffalo: 90F/1951...Rochester: 94F/1973...and
Watertown: 90F/2018) at least being threatened. Coupled with
dewpoints hovering near the 70 degree mark...heat indices will
likely reach as high as the mid to upper 90s from much of the
Niagara Frontier eastward across the Finger Lakes to Oswego
county...for which a Heat Advisory has been issued.
With respect to precipitation chances...expect dry weather to
prevail until early this afternoon...when a lead shortwave attendant
to the system to our west will approach far western New York. As
this feature traverses our region through the rest of this afternoon
and evening...it will help to lift our sultry airmass and generate
some scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Following the passage of this initial shortwave...a relative lull in
convective coverage will then ensue until later on tonight... when
the upstream system's prefrontal trough will approach our area. This
feature along with increasing height falls/DCVA aloft will help to
generate another round of more numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms...beginning across far western New York later on
tonight. Otherwise...the combination of increasing SSW low level
flow and our continued sultry airmass will result in oppressively
warm low temps...with these ranging from the upper 60s across far
interior sections to the lower to mid 70s across the lake plains.
Finally...precipitable water values will steadily increase to near 2
inches through this period. This will lead to a potential for
locally heavy downpours with any convection.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The pattern will amplify across North America during the midweek
period, with a ridge building in the west and a sharpening trough
digging into the Great Lakes and New England. The trough will bring
a much cooler airmass into our region later in the week, with the
change in airmass marked by a strong cold frontal passage on
Tuesday.
The surface cold front will still be west of our region Tuesday
morning across Ohio and southwest Ontario, although a pre-frontal
trough and possibly a few remnant convective outflow boundaries will
support showers and scattered thunderstorms across our region
through the morning hours. Coverage of showers will increase from
west to east through the morning and early afternoon as the cold
front moves east into the area, and as DPVA/height falls spread into
the Lower Great Lakes ahead of the digging trough. A plume of high
quality Gulf of Mexico moisture will be drawn northward ahead of the
trough, with PWAT values approaching 2.0" just ahead of the cold
front Tuesday. The combination of ample moisture and increasing
forcing will support fairly widespread showers along and ahead of
the cold front Tuesday, peaking in coverage from late morning into
the afternoon.
Extensive clouds and showers starting early in the day will inhibit
destabilization, especially across Western NY. There may be a better
potential for a longer rain free window from the Finger Lakes to the
eastern Lake Ontario region. Relatively modest 20-30 knot deep layer
shear may support a few isolated strong storms in the afternoon with
gusty wind potential, if sufficient destabilization occurs over
eastern portions of the area. Any thunderstorms or heavier
convective showers will produce locally heavy rainfall given the
high PWAT environment. There appears to be enough steering flow and
eastward cold frontal push to limit residence time of heavy rain
over any one area, keeping the flooding risk relatively low (but non-
zero).
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will taper off from west to east
late Tuesday afternoon and evening with the passage of the cold
front. The mid level trough axis and associated strong vorticity
maxima will cross the lower Great Lakes later Tuesday night. The
trough itself may produce a few spotty showers. Cooling temperatures
aloft combined with very warm late summer water temperatures may
produce a lake response, with lake enhanced showers over and east of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario later Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning. Forecast soundings suggest enough instability over the
lakes to support some thunder potential as well.
Wednesday any remaining lake effect showers in the morning will
mostly end, although there may still be a spotty shower east of Lake
Ontario into the afternoon. Wednesday night, a secondary cold front
and another shortwave will cross the Lower Great Lakes. The influx
of even cooler temperatures aloft, some added synoptic scale
moisture and ascent, and convergence along the secondary cold front
will bring a renewed chance of lake effect showers over and east of
the lakes, with a chance of some isolated thunder as well.
Temperatures Tuesday will be held back by clouds and showers, with
mid to upper 70s in Western NY and low to mid 80s from the Genesee
Valley eastward. Cooler and less humid air will start to filter in
later Tuesday night, with highs in the mid to upper 70s for lower
elevations and around 70 higher terrain on Wednesday. Even cooler
air will arrive Wednesday night, with lows into the 50s areawide,
and possibly a few upper 40s for the cooler Southern Tier valleys
and Lewis County.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The mid level trough will move to New England Thursday, with surface
high pressure building into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This
will bring a cool, early fall-like airmass into the region for a
brief time. Highs Thursday will only reach the upper 60s to around
70 at lower elevations, and lower 60s on the hilltops. A northwest
flow of cool air will still support a chance of a few lake effect
showers southeast of Lake Ontario in the morning before dry air and
subsidence overwhelm the lake effect process.
High pressure will build overhead Thursday night with clearing skies
and diminishing winds supporting excellent radiational cooling. Lows
will drop into the low to mid 50s close to the lakes and 40s inland.
High pressure will drift east across NY/PA and into New England
Friday with dry weather and mainly clear skies continuing. The
airmass will start to warm Friday, with highs back into the mid to
upper 70s across lower elevations after a cool start.
Next weekend the surface high will drift off the east coast, with
building heights and warm advection allowing for temperatures to
return to above normal. Highs will likely be back into the low to
mid 80s Saturday with dry weather. A weak backdoor cold front is
then forecast to at least approach (and possibly cross) NY and New
England Sunday. If this front does make it south of the US/Canadian
border, it may produce a chance of a few showers and also bring
temperatures down a little Sunday into Labor Day Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions to prevail through early this afternoon.
After that time...a disturbance will pass across the area from west
to east this afternoon and evening while helping to trigger some
scattered showers and thunderstorms...some of which could produce
brief/localized reductions to IFR/MVFR.
Following the passage of this initial disturbance...general VFR
conditions will prevail until later on tonight...when a pre-frontal
trough will approach far western New York and help to generate
another round of more numerous showers and scattered storms...some
of which could again lead to brief/localized restrictions.
Outlook...
Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with numerous to widespread showers
and scattered thunderstorms...with brief/localized reductions
to IFR possible.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers east of Lakes
Erie and Ontario.
Thursday...Mainly VFR...with a chance of showers southeast of Lake
Ontario.
Friday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A moderate southerly to south-southwesterly flow will overspread the
region through tonight...though conditions should remain below
advisory levels through that time. Winds will then veer to
southwesterly/westerly and pick up a little more with the approach
and passage of a cold front Tuesday and Tuesday night...bringing a
limited potential for advisory-level conditions across northeastern
and eastern portions of the lakes. Better chances for advisory-
worthy winds and waves should then arrive on Wednesday as westerlies
increase further.
Following the passage of the cold front...a much cooler airmass will
overspread the Lower Lakes Region through midweek. This will lead to
an environment supportive of a chance of waterspouts from later
Tuesday night through Thursday morning.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>006-010-
011-013-014.
MARINE...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJRHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1053 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 NYZ001-002-010-011-301500- Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee- 1053 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Heat Advisory. A frontal system will approach the region today and tonight, and will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning this afternoon, which will then become more numerous later tonight. Some of the storms may produce locally heavy downpours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday, with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms expected. Some of the storms could again produce locally heavy downpours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ003-013-014-301500- Monroe-Livingston-Ontario- 1053 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Heat Advisory. A frontal system will approach the region today and tonight, and will generate some scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning late this afternoon. Some of the storms may produce locally heavy downpours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday, with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms expected. Some of the storms could produce locally heavy downpours and gusty winds. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ012-019-020-085-301500- Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- 1053 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A frontal system will approach the region today and tonight, and will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning this afternoon, which will then become more numerous later tonight. Some of the storms may produce locally heavy downpours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday, with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms expected. Some of the storms could again produce locally heavy downpours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ021-301500- Allegany- 1053 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A frontal system will approach the region today and tonight, and will generate some scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning late this afternoon. Some of the storms may produce locally heavy downpours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday, with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms expected. Some of the storms could produce locally heavy downpours and gusty winds. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ008-301500- Lewis- 1053 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A frontal system will approach the region tonight, and will generate some scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning this evening. Some of the storms may produce locally heavy downpours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday, with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms expected. Some of the storms could produce locally heavy downpours and gusty winds. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ007-301500- Jefferson- 1053 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A frontal system will approach the region tonight, and will generate some scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning this evening. Some of the storms may produce locally heavy downpours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday, with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms expected. Some of the storms could produce locally heavy downpours and gusty winds. There is a high swim risk for the beaches of Lake Ontario Wednesday and Wednesday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ004>006-301500- Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego- 1053 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Heat Advisory. A frontal system will approach the region today and tonight, and will generate some scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning late this afternoon. Some of the storms may produce locally heavy downpours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday, with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms expected. Some of the storms could produce locally heavy downpours and gusty winds. There is a high swim risk for the beaches of Lake Ontario Wednesday and Wednesday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ040-041-LOZ042-062-301500- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 1053 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A much cooler airmass will overspread the area Tuesday night and Wednesday and may lead to the potential for waterspouts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LOZ043>045-063>065-301500- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 1053 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday, with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms expected. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds. A much cooler airmass will overspread the area Tuesday night through Thursday and may lead to the potential for waterspouts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-301500- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 1053 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario and Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday, with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms expected. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
204 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022
NYZ019-020-291845-
Chautauqua NY-Cattaraugus NY-
204 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Cattaraugus and Chautauqua Counties through 245 PM EDT...
At 203 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chautauqua Institution, or 17 miles west of Jamestown, moving
northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Jamestown, Dunkirk, Fredonia, Allegany State Park, Westfield,
Lakewood, Silver Creek, Falconer, Mayville, Clymer, Long Point State
Park, Jamestown West, SUNY Fredonia, Frewsburg, Chautauqua
Institution, Lake Erie State Park, Findley Lake, Chautauqua, Busti
and Portland.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 90 between exits 59 and 61.
Interstate 86 between exits 4 and 18.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4227 7976 4228 7973 4230 7975 4261 7914
4259 7913 4257 7914 4257 7912 4200 7878
4200 7976
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 244DEG 32KT 4217 7957
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
PPThe Buffalo radar (KBUF), 113 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:09 UTC.
43 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Multiple trees were downed.
A large tree limb fell on a house.
A tree was downed.
A tree fell on a motorcyclist.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
A large tree was downed on a house.
A tree was downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Multiple trees were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees were downed.
Multiple trees were downed on the lakeshore of the SUNY Oswego Campus.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
Trees and wires were downed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, August 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1053744, 1053743, 1053742, 1053735, 1053734, 1053736, 1053750, 1053741, 1053739, 1053740, 1053738, 1053746, 1053747, 1053749, 1053737, 1053752, 1053751, 1053753, 1053771, 1053754, 1053755, 1053756, 1053757, 1053772, 1053758, 1053759, 1053773, 1053774, 1053775, 1053760, 1053762, 1053763, 1053764, 1053766, 1053765, 1053767, 1053776, 1053777, 1053768, 1053778, and more.