Drought in Minnesota, September 20 to 30, 2022

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1048 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed along the
leading edge of an instability gradient and WAA this afternoon.
With a decent gap, think this is keying off of more elevated
instability, which also makes sense with cloud bases near 10k ft.
This activity will continue to move to the east/northeast through
the afternoon, tapering off by this evening/sunset. Shouldn't see
much in the way of accumulation, especially with high bases and
dry sub cloud layer. Hi-res models are not handling this potential
at all, with hardly any of them showing this activity. Breezy
south/southeasterly winds continue through the evening with gusts
up to 30 mph.

Winds overall remain breezy tonight, but could see some lighter winds
across northwestern IA/southwestern MN/far eastern SD. Confidence
is low, but some model guidance indicates the potential of patchy
fog/low stratus again tonight. However, think that winds may be
just breezy enough to prevent fog formation, but can't rule out
stratus. Above average lows are expected with WAA aloft and warm
front meandering northward. Lows remain in the lower to mid 60s.

Highs for Tuesday continue to have a decent bust potential, given
the continued varying cold frontal passage times (varying as much 6
hours between models). If front comes through more quickly, current
forecast is likely too warm. If the front comes through slower,
expect warmer highs, especially in northwestern IA. Could also see
some daily records fall for locales in northwestern IA, where highs
could reach the mid to even upper 90s. As the front moves through,
winds will shift to the northwest and be breezy through the day.

Dry sub cloud layer may prevent precip as the front passes through.
That said, deterministic models are hinting at the potential for
some shower activity behind the front Tuesday night. Lows Tuesday
night (again, dependent on timing) fall into the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

Could see lingering precip Wednesday along an area of frontogenesis
as a weak wave passes to the south across NE. Again, not
expecting much in the way of precipitation, with ensemble
probabilities remaining below 20% of seeing 0.10" of precip
between Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. Otherwise, fall
weather returns thanks to northwesterly flow and cool surface high
pressure off to the east through Thursday. CAA will also aid in
keeping us cooler. Highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s mid week,
which is below average for this time of year.

Along with the surface high Thursday, expect a short lived mid/upper
level ridge to swing through Thursday night/early Friday, ahead of a
more robust mid/upper trough and surface low pressure which swing
through during the day Friday into Friday night. With WAA ahead of
the main trough and a second shot of WAA another wave moves through
Saturday, expect highs to warm into the 70s by Saturday. Rain
chances return from Thursday afternoon through late Friday. Do think
the best chances will be late Thursday night into Friday afternoon,
with the initial WAA push. Another wave moves through on Sunday, with
high pressure Monday. Expect below to near seasonal temperatures
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period, with southerly
winds turning to the northwest on Tuesday as a cold front pushes
through the region. Could see northwest-north winds gusting 20-25kt
behind the front during the afternoon hours. Light surface winds
overnight, topped by southwesterly LLJ between 1-2kft AGL, will
lead to low- level wind shear across northwest Iowa, including
KSUX into early Tuesday.

Could see IFR-LIFR stratus or shallow fog develop through some
river valleys during the early morning hours. Confidence remains
rather low in exactly which locations may be impacted, but did
include a mention a few low clouds in KFSD TAF to indicate favored
time period, 10Z-15Z, if development occurs.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...SG
LONG TERM...SG
AVIATION...JH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
525 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-202230-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
525 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.