Abnormally dry conditions led to D2 drought in portions of 3 Minnesota counties throughout the month of November.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
Abnormally dry conditions led to D2 drought in portions of 3 Minnesota counties throughout the month of November.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 10:58 PM CST, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1158 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 No changes needed at this time as high clouds continue to move though the region and temperatures remain on track (lowest values in the mid 30s matching Td trends). I can't rule out patchy ground fog if we remain clear but location/coverage are question marks and guidance still doesn't support this. It is likely too dry off immediate surface layer for more widespread/persistent impacts based on current model soundings. UPDATE Issued at 957 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 There are more definite breaks in the high clouds over parts of the region, but with additional high cloud cover upstream within westerly flow we will continue to see variable cloud cover. Lows are still forecast to vary across much of the region as a result of clouds and increasing Tds to the west and north. A few locations may still fall to around 30 by sunrise, though most locations are still expected to remain above freezing through Tuesday morning. UPDATE Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Periods of opaque high cirrus continue to move across the region with some breaks through the night. Ideal radiational cooling is going to be "spotty" regarding where breaks persist. This mainly will impact where lows drop near freezing or remain in the mid- upper 30s (based on Td forecast). No major changes necessary with this update, so only adjustments to better reflect sky cover trends and near term T/Td. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Temperatures and fire weather concerns will be the main challenges for the period. Conditions will remain quiet for All Hallows Eve with near zonal flow aloft. A trough of low pressure developing over the lee of the Rockies in Canada will help bring light southwesterly winds and warm air advection throughout the night. With cirrus clouds remaining over the area, lows overnight should be a few degrees warmer than they were this morning. The warm air advection will continue into Tuesday, with upper heights increasing as a trough digs into the western CONUS and ridging builds over the upper midwest. There will still be some cirrus hanging around and winds will be more due south than southwesterly. However, 925 and 850mb temps remain very warm and there will be good mixing. Highs should get into the 60s and even low 70s. Dew points will not be rising too much, so relative humidity in the afternoon will be pretty low in the 20 to 40 percent range. Winds will be in the 10 to 20 mph range and mostly below fire weather criteria, but will be getting closer to critical values. Southwesterly flow aloft will strengthen the surface low over eastern MT/western ND, and southerly winds will remain fairly breezy overnight. Warm air advection continues, and should finally get some dew points in the 40s getting into our southern counties. With mixing and higher moisture levels, lows Tuesday night will stay fairly mild in the 40s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 There remains an expected shift toward a cooler and more active precip pattern than what the region has experienced lately late this week into the next. While the current probability for widespread hazardous weather is low, there are some signals that point toward some potentially impactful conditions beyond Thursday. Confidence greatly decreases in sensible weather, however, getting into this weekend and early next week due to large differences within ensemble guidance. Wednesday - Friday: Starting Wednesday, near record warmth (for early November) and gusty winds are expected across the region ahead of an incoming cold front to move through later that night. There is currently around 20% of seeing record temps (upper 60s to mid 70s). Driving the cold front east is upper troughing over the central CONUS shifting east, with one or more embedded shortwaves moving through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. One initial mid level wave moving into Minnesota Thursday night has some signals for strong mesoscale forcing associated with it (fgen and upright instability), although it does appear to be transient/fast moving over our area. This could mean there is a brief chance for heavier precip rates Thursday night, although impacts would be dependent upon precip type which is somewhat uncertain at this time. Hopefully higher res guidance can resolve this initial wave and its forcing/rates/ptype better as time draws closer. Saturday - Monday: Behind the cold front, much cooler but closer to seasonal average temperatures are expected into next week. That being said, there remains signals for continued precipitation this weekend into next week, including a potentially notable wave around Sunday/Monday timeframe. There is much uncertainty with this wave however, as revealed by cluster analyses that can generally be grouped into two scenarios. One scenario depicts a potent clipper-like wave moving across the northern tier of the CONUS bringing more forcing for lift and precip production into the area (albeit its clipper-like nature would lessen residence time of precip). The second scenario illustrates the would-be clipper getting hung up within the PacNW and a more zonal flow over our area, which would still bring some chance for precip, just not as much as the first scenario. Both also would be in a temperature regime where snow would be possible if not probable. With this in mind, the current forecast shows chance for snow during Sunday and Monday. So while confidence is not high in either scenario being more likely, it does bare some watching given the chance to see snowfall across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN, with light and variable winds into Tuesday morning. Spotty ground fog can't be ruled out by sunrise Tuesday, but guidance is not showing this signal or any impacts at TAF sites. Winds begin to increase from the south-southeast during the day Tuesday as gradient finally increases (sustained around 12kt and occasional gusts to 20kt possible). These winds look to continue through the end of the TAF period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && UPDATE...DJR SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...CJ AVIATION...DJR
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 429 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-010930- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks- Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- Western Walsh- 429 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. There will be a pattern change with the cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. Ahead of the cold front Wednesday strong south winds and low humidity may create near critical fire weather conditions. Cooler temps and a wetter pattern will develop to end the week. Some rain or even light snow showers are possible Thursday and again this weekend though impacts are not anticipated. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Portions of SW Norman county in D2 drought classification from November 1st - November 30th, 2022.
Portions of western Clay county in D2 drought from November 1st - November 30th, 2022.
Portions of Wilkin county in D2 drought November 1st - November 30th, 2022.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, November 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1067318, 1067319, 1067320.