Drought in Minnesota, November 1 to 15, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
602 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022

Summary: A gorgeous night for Halloween with highs in the upper 50s
this evening and slowly dropping to the upper 40s by 9pm. Our
pattern will stay dry and warm through the near term with some
possible record breaking temperatures possible Wednesday. A cold
front will move in from the west Thursday and bring about some rain
and possible thunderstorms. The pattern may remain active as we head
into the weekend with some snow chances mixed in occasionally.

Zonal flow continues today with dry conditions abroad. We are looking
at a pleasant evening for trick or treating tonight with highs
initially in the upper 50s at 6pm and slowly dropping into the upper
40s by 9pm. Winds are also expected to be on the light side and out
of the southwest. Partly cloudy skies will be clearing through the
evening revealing a beautiful waning crescent moon. Happy Halloween!

The pattern remains fairly similar to what we have seen over the
past couple days. Weak zonal flow aloft will continue through
Tuesday but begins to break down Wednesday as a more meridional
pattern overtakes CONUS with a trough ridge pattern settling in. The
area will remain dry with highs climbing into the 60s for Tuesday.

Tuesday night a strong low level jet begins to enter from the south
advecting warm an moist air back into the region. Ensembles are
leaning towards this warmth being quite anomalous for this time of
year. Both GEFS and NAEFS are highlighting values above the 95th
percentile of climatology. The EFI is also above 0.8 for max temp.
Looking through the previous runs this has steadily been increasing
with a fairly tight spread of solutions, leading to higher
confidence in our warm temperatures. Would not be surprised if we
broke a few record warm highs and lows on Wednesday with a few
spots possibly climbing up near 70.

A cold front will be heading in from the west Thursday and with an
open gulf connection the integrated water vapor transport is
highlighting a good fetch of moisture to work with. Rain will spread
across the region and we may see some thunderstorms. The better odds
currently reside across NW WI due to the timing of the frontal
passage and their residence time within the warm sector. Further to
the northwest in northern MN, lingering precipitation may be a
wintry mix at times as temperatures plunge behind the cold front.

Forecast confidence lowers considerably as we move into the long
range forecast. The cold front is expected to push past the region
Friday but we may still see some active weather for the weekend. The
models diverge in their handling of the upper level pattern.
Cluster analysis shows a spilt of solutions bringing a cut off
low through the region with others transitioning into a trough.
Both bring separate challenges and timing of the features are
still highly variable. For now, we will carry the chance for some
precipitation through the extended. During the daylight hours rain
will be favored but overnight the cooler temperatures will allow
for more of a wintry mix at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022

VFR through the period with light generally southwest winds. Some
upper level clouds stream through decreasing any threat for fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022

Southwesterly winds continue to stream across the Lake this evening
at speeds around 10 kts. Wednesday is the time frame to be aware of
in terms of the next chance for some hazardous Lake conditions.
Strong southerly winds will push across the land and may
eventually mix across the South Shore zones. By Wednesday night
waves could be building along the North Shore as well. A Small
Craft Advisory may be needed for both the South Shore winds and
the North Shore waves.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  62  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
INL  32  61  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  35  67  45  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  34  65  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  37  66  40  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Britt

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
256 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-012000-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
256 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon or
tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-150-012000-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
256 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Winds will be increasing out of the south Wednesday which could
lead to building waves. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory may be
needed.

Kossen

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth