Isolated severe thunderstorms formed in eastern North Dakota during the early afternoon, then moved into west-central Minnesota during the mid to late afternoon. Hail, thunderstorm wind damage, and a funnel cloud were reported.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
Isolated severe thunderstorms formed in eastern North Dakota during the early afternoon, then moved into west-central Minnesota during the mid to late afternoon. Hail, thunderstorm wind damage, and a funnel cloud were reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 11:54 AM CST, 56 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Stalled boundary/theta-E gradient has stalled in our south and this is where better instability axis remain in place (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/K). Weak mid level trough is still progressing eastward. Very moist air mass and just enough forcing/instability is continuing to support isolated to widely scattered activity in our far south (just showers further north in MN due to less instability). This activity hasn't been very strong as profiles are "skinny" in nature with weak mid level lapse rates and weak lower level shear (0-6km and 0-3km shear less than 25kt). Due to the low flow and moist air mass storms have tended to be nearly stationary and occasional lighting and heavy rain appear to be the main threats. Timing of activity will be related to mid level wave finally pushing east and the arrival strong region of subsidence (now in northeast ND). If the wave hasn't cleared by late afternoon/evening the loss of daytime heating will probably put an end to any other lingering updrafts that may redevelop matching trends in CAMs. UPDATE Issued at 1031 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Organized shower/thunderstorm complex that was responsible for impressive shelf cloud pictures but unimpressive wind has weakened and broken apart with eastward progression, with some disorganized showers or isolated weaker thunderstorms in our south. CAMs support the idea of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms continuing through peak heating in our south and east, and initiation will be dependent on surface features (very disorganized and any lingering forcing). Main axis of elevated instability is now south and east while the main wave is still in Canada (more diffuse/less obvious forcing along the mid level axis in our area). Any clearing will help in warming/destabilization, however with any forcing transitioning east the window for redevelopment may also shift. For now CAPE profiles are fairly skinny where the values would support marginally strong cells. There are pockets of marginal effective shear in the 30-40kt but trends will be for this to weaken. I still don't want to rule out a strong to marginally severe storm in MN or the southern RRV this afternoon, but things ultimately may not line up. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Ongoing convection will push southeastward out of Manitoba early this morning, then continue into the Northern and Central Red River Valley by mid-morning. CAMs are in relatively good agreement regarding the evolution of this line of storms, with most members continuing the showers and thunderstorms into the early afternoon. As such, we will likely see an impact on our high temperatures due to the associated cloud cover. Storms could become strong; however the potential for widespread severe weather appears low at this time. Highs today will reach the lower to middle 80s where showers and storms form, with near 90 degrees elsewhere. Low temperatures fall into the middle to upper 60s tonight, with patchy fog possible once more. Sunday looks much warmer than today, with widespread 90s from the Red River Valley westward. Heat index values have the potential to approach 100 degrees within the Red River Valley, especially north of Highway 200. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Impacts and concerns in the extended will be primarily Monday and Tuesday. Monday will see the warmest day of this hot stretch with highs in the mid 90s and heat indices over a hundred when combining the humidity impacts of the 70 degree dewpoints. Potent short wave will dampen the upper level ridging and bring strong forcing to the area with thunderstorm chances developing late Monday into Tuesday. Given the airmass and instability ahead of the wave along with the progged environmental shear these storms may become severe with what appears to be a fairly organized wind threat developing. Expecting a couple potential convective episodes the first associated to the warm elevated front ahead of the upper wave and potential for severe hail as favorable mid level lapse rates and instability lift north east. Another possibility is for a MCS to develop Monday afternoon in eastern MT and push along the International border overnight, its just a matter of timing the wave and placement on its southern influence and extent into the ridge which remains in question. Redevelopment Tuesday will depend on convective debris and position of the upper wave with guidance suggesting much of the stronger or severe activity being east of the forecast area. A drier forecast develops for the much of the area through Friday with a slight chance of a shower in northern MN Wed and Friday. WRT to temperatures...The hottest day will be Monday with highs in the mid and upper 90s and heat indices above 100F in the afternoon in the Red River Valley. Tuesday through Friday will see temps cooler but still at to above mid summer normals with highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN, though early in the TAF period a few lingering pockets of MVFR stratocumulus may impact terminals in southeast ND and northeast MN. Isolated to widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are mainly in far southeast ND and parts of northwest MN. This activity should eventually fall apart or move out of the region by late afternoon. Winds are highly variable and light as surface gradient remains weak and cloud cover is liming mixing. There should be a tendency though for winds to shift to the southeast then south this afternoon and again after sunrise Sunday morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. UPDATE...DJR SHORT TERM...Lynch LONG TERM...JK AVIATION...DJR
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 634 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-171145- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks- Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- Western Walsh- 634 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Potentially strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Heat indices Sunday and Monday will approach 100 degrees at a few locations in the valley and eastern ND. Monday night into Tuesday morning there will be a chance for strong to severe storms as cool front moves across the region. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
757 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022
MNZ001-004-007-NDZ016-027-030-161330-
Kittson MN-West Polk MN-West Marshall MN-Traill ND-
Eastern Walsh County ND-Grand Forks ND-
757 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Marshall,
northwestern Polk, south central Kittson, central Grand Forks, north
central Traill and southeastern Walsh Counties through 830 AM CDT...
At 757 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Stephen to near Manvel to 6 miles
southwest of Emerado. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Florian and Tabor around 815 AM CDT.
Holmes and East Grand Forks around 825 AM CDT.
Old Mill State Park, Mallory and Key West around 830 AM CDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include Grand Forks Airport.
This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 125 and 176.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4850 9639 4848 9639 4785 9681 4757 9730
4793 9761 4863 9701
TIME...MOT...LOC 1257Z 324DEG 20KT 4846 9683 4810 9706 4784 9743
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
PerrouxThe Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 91 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:50 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail, 1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
Broadcast media partner relayed a public report of a funnel cloud that persisted for over a minute, with no touchdown apparent. Time is estimated based on radar.
Peak wind was measured by a MNDOT RWIS station located along Interstate 94. Large tree branches, 6 to 10 inches in diameter, were snapped around the town of Rothsay.
Received a report of trees down on power lines, resulting in local power outages.
Received a public report of heavy rain and hail up to the size of quarters.
Received a public report of up to penny sized hail and very heavy rain.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1049244, 1049239, 1049243, 1049241, 1049242.