Thunderstorms moving through Saginaw Bay and southern Lake Huron produced wind gusts in excess of 35 knots.
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The episode as NWS DTX wrote it up.
Thunderstorms moving through Saginaw Bay and southern Lake Huron produced wind gusts in excess of 35 knots.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 9, 12:43 PM EST, 2 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 143 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 .AVIATION... Cumulus field will continue to lift and scatter around 5 kft through the afternoon as diurnal heating effectively mixes the boundary layer. Prevailing west to southwest flow remains in place this afternoon, peaking around 10 knots, before veering briefly to the northwest late evening as a weakening surface trough passes overhead. This surface trough and approaching mid level shortwave will be the focus for afternoon showers, arriving to the northern terminals after 19z, with low confidence thunderstorm potential north of PTK. Have decided to hold off on any thunder mention in the TAFs given low confidence and coverage, but did add in a TEMPO for showers for MBS and FNT given upstream development and consistency among hi-res guidance. Precipitation will move in from the northwest and clear the terminals by sunset. High cloud to then stream in overnight, which will hinder widespread fog development overnight despite otherwise favorable conditions. For DTW...Low confidence in showers reaching the metro terminals late this afternoon after 20z, therefore did not include any shower mention with this TAF issuance. Even lower confidence in thunder potential, which will be limited by weak instability. Any shower activity that does reach the DTW airspace will diminish by sunset. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this afternoon. * Low for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1036 AM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 UPDATE... Southeast Michigan is under established northwest flow today with an upper level trough in place over all of the Great Lakes and a main potential vorticity anomaly over Hudson Bay. Residual debris cloud from yesterdays shortwave/deformation exists over the eastern Thumb counties with broken IFR stratus/stratocumulus persisting across south central sections of Lower Michigan. A secondary shortwave now impinging on the U.P. and northern Lake Michigan basin will propagate/drop southeastward today. Models continue to suggest that differential cyclonic vorticity advection combined with midlevel cooling and marginally steeper midlevel lapse rates will allow for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon mainly from the Saginaw Valley down through the Thumb counties/St Clair. Most favorable timing for development is 5 PM to 9 PM. Do like the previous forecasts that included a chance of showers and thunderstorms down into Metro Detroit this evening. Forecast soundings suggest some surface based convective inhibition holding across the south, but feel that any gust front development from the northern activity should be enough to spark some tail-end iso-sct activity. The potential energy through the ice growth zone is much more limited south/across Metro Detroit so the likelihood for lightning is less to the south. Any activity will have the potential to produce gusty winds to 45 mph. Small hail will also be possible over the Saginaw Valley and Thumb. PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 AM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 DISCUSSION... The last of the showers associated with the midlevel wave should be wrapping up as the deformation axis pulls off to the east. Should have a quiet start to the day as a pocket of subsidence in the wake of the low drifts over along with a low amplitude shortwave ridge aloft. We remain on the western fringe of the broader longwave trough that has held firm for several days as an upper level low stalled over Hudson Bay. The upper low will wobble southward today while sending the next trough axis through the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon with a bubble of vorticity racing through the northwest flow putting it over Mid MI during peak heating this afternoon coincident with the trough. Models have painted a fairly consistent picture for this afternoon producing scattered showers and maybe a few thunderstorms ending around dusk. Though moisture quality isn't what it was yesterday with PWATS now around 0.75 inches, surface dewpoints will still be in the 50s. Strong low level lapse rates develop due to the thermal trough around 750mb dropping below 0C. A few hundred J/kg of CAPE with unidirectional shear around 20-30 knots should be enough to pop a few storms this afternoon. We don't expect severe weather with these storms but some storms could produce wind gusts to 40 mph and small hail. Models still want to drive the next system south of the Great Lakes on Friday with a nearly north to south oriented jet streak but we're still under the influence of the broader longwave trough with a surface trough axis lingering across the middle of the state. So will keep a low chance pop in the forecast during the afternoon to see how the timing of any smaller scale features line up along these features. Flow turns a bit more westerly which should help temps to increase back into the mid 70s. By Saturday an elongated 100 knot jet will stretch from the west coast into the Midwest. A shortwave at the nose of the jet looks to track across the region Saturday night at the same time as the next stronger trough rotating around the low over Ontario. This phasing of systems should produce a better chance of more widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area. Chances will begin Saturday afternoon but the best chance will come overnight. The trough over the region finally breaks down the latter half of the weekend as the next jet coming ashore carves out the western conus trough amplifying the ridge over the central Plains bringing increasing heights Sunday into Monday. Warming trend through the beginning of the week brings temps back into the 80s by Monday and once the ridge axis cross the area Wednesday, could see highs in the 90s across lower MI. Both GFS and Euro advertise 850mb temps into the low 20C range. MARINE... Another weak wave drops through the central Great Lakes today generating widely scattered showers along with an isolated thunderstorm focused over Lake Huron. Wave draws a cooler airmass into the region supporting a modest uptick in northwesterly winds, though gusts expected to only peak up around 20kts over northern Lake Huron (winds will be weaker for areas to the south) before weakening late Thursday night. Upper level trough remains entrenched over the Great Lakes through this weekend allowing additional systems to cross the region. Strongest of these systems sweeps across lower MI Sunday bringing the next best chances for widespread showers and a few thunderstorms. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && AVIATION.....MV UPDATE.......CB DISCUSSION...DRK MARINE.......KDK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 414 AM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-100900- Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer- St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- 414 AM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Best chance will be over the Thumb region but these storms will drift southeast possibly affecting the rest of the area. These storms are not expected to be severe but may produce wind gusts to 40 mph and small hail while tracking southeast around 40 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday There are additional chances of thunderstorms Friday and Saturday night as the next systems work across the area. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-100900- Lake St Clair- Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore- Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore- Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore- Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI- Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI- Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore- 414 AM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Huron and Lake St Clair. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Best chance will be over Lake Huron but these storms will drift southeast possibly affecting Lake St Clair. These storms are not expected to be severe but may produce wind gusts to around 30 knots and small hail while tracking southeast around 30 knots. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday There are additional chances of thunderstorms Friday and Saturday night as the next systems work across the area. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit. DRK
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
352 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022
MIZ049-054-055-092045-
Huron MI-Tuscola MI-Sanilac MI-
352 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Tuscola, northwestern
Sanilac and Huron Counties through 445 PM EDT...
At 352 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Port Austin to near
Caseville to 8 miles northwest of Unionville. Movement was southeast
at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Port Austin around 355 PM EDT.
Pigeon around 400 PM EDT.
Elkton, Unionville and Owendale around 405 PM EDT.
Akron and Fairgrove around 410 PM EDT.
Bad Axe and Port Hope around 415 PM EDT.
Caro around 420 PM EDT.
Harbor Beach and Ubly around 425 PM EDT.
Argyle around 435 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include Parisville, Colling,
Wisner, Ivanhoe, Rapson, Grindstone City, Ellington, Silverwood, New
Greenleaf and Port Crescent State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4399 8274 4385 8264 4364 8261 4332 8321
4332 8335 4324 8336 4361 8371 4381 8341
4383 8345 4383 8339 4384 8344 4386 8345
4386 8339 4385 8337 4390 8333 4391 8337
4393 8330 4397 8326 4400 8307 4407 8293
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 313DEG 33KT 4411 8291 4390 8329 4371 8362
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MVThe Detroit radar (KDTX), 140 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:00 UTC.
2 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Huron in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1028867, 1028868.