Wildfire in New Mexico, June 9 to 16, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
557 AM MDT Thu Jun 9 2022

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR low cigs across northeast NM will clear thru 15Z while mid and
upper level clouds linger elsewhere. SHRA/TS will develop over the
higher terrain aft 19Z then move east-southeast into nearby valleys
and highlands thru 00Z. Activity moving off the Sangre de Cristo Mts
will strengthen across northeast NM with strong to severe cells aft
21Z. Confidence is moderate to high for SHRA/TS impacts at KTCC aft
23Z as storms merge into clusters and linear segments thru 03Z.

Guyer

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.PREV DISCUSSION...303 AM MDT Thu Jun 9 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of showers and storms are expected today across the
high terrain as well as the northeast and east central plains. Most
of the activity along the Continental Divide will likely be dry in
nature and capable of gusty outflow winds. Meanwhile, storms across
the northeast plains could be severe with large hail and damaging
winds being the main threats. For Friday and Saturday, high pressure
will strengthen and this will reduce precipitation chances and allow
temperatures to climb well above normal. In fact, some locales could
approach or exceed daily record values. Wind speeds increase Sunday
through Tuesday as a storm system invades the Pacific Northwest and
traverses the northern and central Rockies for early next week. This
will bring a drier air mass as well as a renewed threat for elevated
to critical fire weather, especially on Monday.

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.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A weak shortwave trough passing southeast thru northeast NM this
afternoon will trigger SHRA/TS over the Sangre de Cristos after 1
pm. This activity will tap deeper moisture and instability while
moving into northeast NM and become strong to severe thru the early
evening. SPC still shows a SLIGHT RISK over the northeast plains
with a larger MARGINAL risk south and west into east-central NM. A
few SHRA/TS are also possible over the central and southwest high
terrain but activity will be more dry and gusty as drier mid level
air slides in behind the upper level shortwave. Most SHRA/TS will
end across eastern NM by 9 pm with clearing over much of the region
tonight. Friday will trend hotter as a 594dm H5 upper high center
builds over western NM. Isolated SHRA/TS will be high-based with dry
and gusty outflow winds near the high terrain. A max temp of 105F at
Roswell will support a Heat Advisory for Chaves County while the
remainder of NM warms well into the 90s. Guyer

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
Any convection that develops on Friday afternoon will like wane by
or shortly after sunset as the atmosphere stabilizes. The upper high
will remain anchored over central/south central NM on Saturday, and
this will continue to support well above average temperatures (by 5
to 15 degrees). Several locales throughout the forecast area may be
at risk for daily record highs with widespread 100F+ readings across
the east central and southeast plains. Several zones will need to be
considered for a Heat Advisory.

Upper level ridge starts to break down on Sunday as a trough carves
its way through the Pacific Northwest. Winds aloft should gradually
increase across northwest NM while leeside cyclogenesis develops in
southeast CO, increasing the surface pressure gradient in northeast
NM. Overall, high temperatures will not change much compared to Sat.

Southwest flow aloft strengthens further for Mon as the upr trough
inches closer to the region. Meanwhile, a deeper surface low should
develop in eastern CO. Breezy to windy conditions are likely for the
northern tier of NM as drier air is advected into western/central NM.
With that said, most deterministic models suggest moisture from the
Sierra Madre (and possibly an embedded disturbance) could be pulled
northward into southern and eastern NM during this time. Confidence
is rather low as to whether this will result in any appreciable QPF.
Slightly cooler conditions are likely, but above normal temperatures
will persist.

Trough should pull northeast of the CWFA by late Tuesday, allowing
the upper high over the south central U.S. to expand westward into
the southern Rockies for the midweek period. There are some subtle
hints that a potential traditional monsoon pattern could take shape
for late next week. It is still too early to place any bets on this
solution, but this may be a favorable pattern to pull some tropical
moisture into the Desert Southwest. DPorter

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.FIRE WEATHER...
A ridge of high pressure will center over NM thru the weekend with
near-record heat expected in many areas. Just enough moisture will
linger today for isolated to scattered showers and storms over the
high terrain and eastern plains. The greatest storm coverage will be
over northeast NM where a few storms may be strong to severe. Storms
from the RGV west will be mainly dry with gusty outflow winds. Even
less coverage of showers and storms is expected Friday. Temps will
peak well into the 90s and low 100s over the weekend with much drier
air and poor to fair recoveries. The upper ridge will break down
Monday and Tuesday with much stronger west and southwest winds once
again. Critical fire weather is likely across much of the region
Monday then mainly over eastern NM Tuesday. Wind gusts up to 40 mph
will be common with this next wind event with more single digit RH.
Storm chances return Wednesday as strengthening southeast flow draws
deeper moisture in NM. Guyer

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.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

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