During the afternoon and evening hours on October 12th, a mid- and upper-level trough and associated surface cold front moved across central Kentucky. Ahead of the front, temperatures warmed into the low-to-mid 80s, with dewpoints remaining fairly modest in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
During the afternoon and evening hours on October 12th, a mid- and upper-level trough and associated surface cold front moved across central Kentucky. Ahead of the front, temperatures warmed into the low-to-mid 80s, with dewpoints remaining fairly modest in the upper 50s and lower 60s. This contributed to around 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE and MUCAPE in the pre-frontal environment. The instability ahead of the front combined with approximately 40 knots of effective bulk shear to produce two waves of strong-to-severe storms across Kentucky. The first wave of storms were more discrete and cellular in nature, producing sub-severe hail across Russell County. The second and more potent wave of storms was a quasi-linear convective system which developed along the surface boundary, brining damaging straight-line winds to portions of Metcalfe County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 12, 3:52 PM CST, 16 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 552 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 .Mesoscale Update... Issued at 551 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Convection is ongoing across the CWA at this hour, with two separate clusters of convection worth noting. The first area of concern is over central KY and the Bluegrass region where scattered storms, some occasionally supercellular, have been noted. Overall, these storms are pretty shallow in depth around 25 K feet, and have only been able to muster some small hail, mid level rotation, and a few gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Will continue to monitor this area of storms as they move NE associated with a low level jet max around 35 knots. For now, expect mostly Special Weather Statements to handle these storms, however any stronger supercell like we saw in Cumberland/Clinton earlier could warrant a Warning through the evening hours. The threat should remain isolated, however so no Watches are anticipated (see SPC MD 20% Watch probability). The second area of convection is now sliding across south central KY, and is in more of linear form. Initially, this line had stayed fairly parallel to the 0-3km shear vector, however more recently we have noted some sections becoming more orthogonal to the shear vector which has prompted the Severe Thunderstorm Warning across south central KY. The environment in that area remains marginally favorable for an isolated damaging wind gust or brief tornado thanks to notable surface based instability around 1000 J/KG, lowering LCL's (dew points back in the low to mid 60s), and effective SRH values around ~150 M2/S2. It is also worth noting that this is the time frame where some of the hi-res data had suggested intensification across south central KY through the evening hours. So, will be monitoring closely over the next couple/few hours. && .Short Term...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 ...Strong to severe storms possible through early evening... Main challenge through this evening will be impacts of strong to possibly severe storms as a cold front pushes through the Ohio Valley. Upper trof axis is taking on an increasingly negative tilt as the closed low becomes more stacked over NW Ontario/NE Manitoba. Sfc cold front is pushing east across Illinois and eastern Missouri, with a dissipating band of showers ahead of it. Robust SSW flow has drawn an increasingly moist and marginally unstable (CAPE near 1000 J/kg) air mass into central and eastern Kentucky, and scattered thunderstorms developing over the Bluegrass region have shown some vague supercell characteristics. Best opportunity for development, and storm severity, will be east of Interstate 65, with low-level convergence as the main driver. Increasing winds aloft, along with strong low-level lapse rates, will support a damaging wind threat through at least sunset. Can't rule out a brief tornado, given the rotating storms we have seen, and 0-1km SRH approaching 200 m2/s2. Wetbulb zero heights are low, but modest mid-level lapse rates will limit hail potential. The main severe threat will run until approx 02Z Thu, but hi-res models are hinting that more storms could develop along the actual cold front toward 04-06Z, but that late at night most if not all activity should be elevated, so we'll continue with a decent probability of showers and embedded T-storms. Strong westerly flow and cold air advection through a deep layer behind the front, so expect breezy conditions during the day Thursday. Temps will struggle a bit with most locations topping out in the 60s, and we'll see frequent gusts near 30 mph. Fire danger concerns could be on the table as both winds and relative humidities will be near critical levels, but it remains to be seen what areas actually see a wetting rain this afternoon/evening. Will check with forestry partners yet this afternoon to give the night crew a more solid basis to make any fire wx headline decisions. .Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Thursday Night - Friday... Expect quiet weather to start the extended period as surface high pressure squeezes by to our south. With good radiational cooling late Thursday night, low temperatures will fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area with patchy frost possible in sheltered locations and typical cool spots. As we get into a weak WAA regime Friday, afternoon temperatures will warm slightly as compared to Thursday with highs topping out in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Winds will continue to be a bit breezy during the daytime hours with southwesterly winds of 10-15 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph possible. Overnight lows into Saturday morning will be noticeably warmer, remaining in the upper 40s to lower 50s, as persistent SWly flow continues to pump warm and moist air into the region. Saturday - Sunday... Moving into the weekend, expect increasing chances for showers and storms as several shortwave disturbances rotate through the upper level trough. A surface cold front will approach the area Saturday likely pushing into the area during the second half of the day then pushing off to the southeast Sunday morning. While wind fields will be quite impressive with this system, limited instability is expected to help keep things in check. Precipitation will then taper off from NW to SE by Sunday morning, potentially drying out for the second half of the day. Saturday is expected to be the warmest day of the extended period with high temperatures into the lower to mid 70s. Sunday will then be several degrees cooler in the wake of the front with highs topping out in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. Monday and Beyond... The first part of next week will be cool and dry as a reinforcing cold front pushes through the area Monday followed by a Canadian high pressure. High temperatures will generally be in the 50s each day with overnight lows in the 30s. Best potential for frost/freeze conditions will be Tuesday morning and then especially Wednesday morning as low temps are expected to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s across the area. && .Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1255 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Impacts: - Gusty SSW winds this afternoon - Thunderstorms late afternoon/evening - MVFR cigs overnight Confidence: - Winds: Moderate-high - Ceilings: Moderate - Precip: High on precip chances, low on timing/impact of thunderstorms Showers this afternoon ahead of a cold front will mainly affect HNB and possibly SDF, but with no cig/vis restrictions. By 21-22Z we could start to see more vigorous convection, but impacts very conditional on where it initiates. Could end up initiating after the effective boundary passes SDF and/or BWG, which would limit the thunder chances to LEX. Have included TEMPO for TSRA in all 3 of those terminals, with MVFR cig/vis. Can't rule out brief IFR, mainly for LEX. Once the main line of convection passes, could see some lingering showers and low clouds late this evening. MVFR ceilings are likely, with LEX most likely to go below 2000 feet. Strong wind fields behind the front should scour that out fairly quickly, with clear skies and gusty west winds expected Thursday. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && Mesoscale...BJS Short Term...RAS Long Term...JML Aviation...RAS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Louisville KY 353 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-132000- Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison- Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt- Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford- Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle- Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln- Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell- Cumberland-Clinton- Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany 353 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022 /253 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022/ This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Indiana and Central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening, especially east of Interstate 65 in Kentucky. Locally damaging winds will be the main hazard, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Very low afternoon relative humidities and gusty west winds will result in increasing wildfire danger Thursday and Friday, especially in areas that miss out on rainfall today. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to relay any reports of wind damage or measured gusts. GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY: Storms will move to the east-northeast around 40 mph. Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity can be erratic and constantly evolving. Please use this with caution and be prepared for changing conditions. && More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville. RAS/JML
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
409 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
KYZ062>064-071-073-074-076-122200-
Hart KY-Metcalfe KY-Warren KY-Allen KY-Edmonson KY-Barren KY-
Green KY-
409 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Green,
southern Hart, Allen, southeastern Warren, Barren, northwestern
Metcalfe and southeastern Edmonson Counties through 500 PM CDT...
At 408 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles east of Brownsville to 6 miles
northwest of Scottsville to near Portland. Movement was east at 30
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Scottsville around 420 PM CDT.
Other locations in the path of these storms include Glasgow and Three
Springs.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3665 8641 3668 8642 3676 8641 3682 8632
3721 8612 3727 8554 3683 8578 3673 8597
3669 8596 3663 8605
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 270DEG 28KT 3715 8610 3683 8628 3667 8651
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ALLPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
510 PM EDT WED OCT 12 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0438 PM HAIL 2 SSE SALEM 37.05N 84.97W
10/12/2022 E0.70 INCH RUSSELL KY AMATEUR RADIO
&&
BJSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
518 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022
KYZ040-041-047-048-122145-
Mercer KY-Woodford KY-Fayette KY-Jessamine KY-
518 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Mercer,
south central Woodford, Jessamine and central Fayette Counties
through 545 PM EDT...
At 517 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Nicholasville, moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and half inch hail. Some rotation has
been observed as well.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Nicholasville around 525 PM EDT.
Veterans Park, Fayette Mall and U K Arboretum around 535 PM EDT.
Other locations in the path of this storm include Chevy Chase,
Cadentown and Bryan Station.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3789 8436 3790 8438 3789 8438 3781 8468
3783 8468 3782 8470 3788 8476 3812 8438
3790 8434
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 242DEG 36KT 3785 8467
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
BJSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
531 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022
KYZ043-122145-
Nicholas KY-
531 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Nicholas
County through 545 PM EDT...
At 530 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Carlisle, moving northeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Nicholas
County, including the following locations... Blue Licks Springs,
Weston, Ellisville, Pleasant Valley, Headquarters, Barterville and
Myers.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3825 8406 3835 8415 3844 8404 3844 8402
3843 8401 3844 8400 3842 8400 3844 8398
3843 8395 3836 8392 3836 8389 3835 8390
3836 8387 3835 8386 3834 8386
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 232DEG 43KT 3834 8406
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
BJSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
558 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022
KYZ064-065-074-076-077-122245-
Metcalfe KY-Taylor KY-Barren KY-Adair KY-Green KY-
558 PM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Green, central
Taylor, east central Barren, western Adair and central Metcalfe
Counties through 645 PM EDT/545 PM CDT/...
At 557 PM EDT/457 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Campbellsville to 7
miles west of Edmonton. Movement was east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Greensburg around 505 PM CDT.
Campbellsville around 610 PM EDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3697 8591 3718 8570 3718 8569 3719 8569
3735 8553 3738 8513 3736 8513 3734 8514
3696 8547
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 261DEG 21KT 3735 8544 3702 8573
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
BJSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
501 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
KYZ073>076-081-122245-
Metcalfe KY-Monroe KY-Cumberland KY-Allen KY-Barren KY-
501 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Monroe, southeastern
Allen, northwestern Cumberland, southeastern Barren and southern
Metcalfe Counties through 545 PM CDT...
At 501 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Glasgow to 7 miles northeast of
Westmoreland. Movement was east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of southern
Metcalfe, Monroe, northwestern Cumberland, southeastern Allen and
southeastern Barren Counties, including the following locations...
Eighty Eight, Oak Forest, Curtis, Gum Tree, Maynard, Harlan
Crossroads, Willow Shade, Gamaliel, Austin and Nobob.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3664 8622 3697 8591 3696 8545 3695 8544
3694 8545 3694 8543 3662 8566
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 278DEG 31KT 3695 8583 3664 8615
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
BJSThe Louisville radar (KLVX), 102 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:09 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees were blown down near the intersection of Knob Lick Road and Sulphur Well Knob Lick Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, October 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1059794.