Thunderstorms broke out across east Kentucky May 26th thanks to a mature low pressure system moving into the Ohio Valley from the west. This system initially pulled a warm front through eastern Kentucky in the evening, and most of the severe convection was associated with the approach and passage of this warm front.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Thunderstorms broke out across east Kentucky May 26th thanks to a mature low pressure system moving into the Ohio Valley from the west. This system initially pulled a warm front through eastern Kentucky in the evening, and most of the severe convection was associated with the approach and passage of this warm front. A cold front was then dragged across the region overnight and into the morning. Instability was not overly impressive going into this event, around 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE. However, storms that formed were able to take advantage of the roughly 40 kts of effective shear over the area and organize into more multicellular and linear structures. The limited CAPE profile meant a more limited hail threat, leaving strong to damaging wind gusts as the primary threat, though tornadoes were not able to be ruled out. Even though storm motions were fairly swift, given the abundant moisture associated with this system, there was also a threat for flash flooding if any training set up or an area was hit multiple times. Several warnings, including Severe Thunderstorm, Flash Flood, and Tornado, were issued that evening, mainly across our most western and southwestern counties. Multiple reports of damaging wind leading to downed trees were received across the same areas, along with a couple of reports of water flowing over roadways. There were some wind reports within the Tornado Warnings, but no tornadoes were confirmed in the JKL area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 26, 2:15 PM EST, 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 315 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 208 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2022 Convection is increasing over central KY and that trend should spread east this afternoon. KJKL 88D currently shows about 30 kts of 0-3km shear with some modest turning, but heating has been limited and instability is still weak. A severe threat still exists, especially in our far western and northern counties if a little more heating can be mustered. Ongoing forecast looked reasonable good, and only minor changes were made with blending of obs. UPDATE Issued at 1022 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2022 Have updated the hourly forecast to better show a relative lull in precip expected between this morning's showers and the uptick later in the afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 710 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2022 Updated Pops based on the latest guidance. Also lowered high temps this afternoon a couple degrees, but still looking at mid to upper 70s for most areas. Updates sent to NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 305 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2022 The short term period will be dominated by a slow moving surface and upper level low currently over the middle Mississipi valley that will move east into the OH valley late tonight into Friday. A warm front associated with the surface low will cross the area this evening, quickly followed by a cold front that will cross Eastern KY overnight and move off to the east Friday morning. Scattered showers will move in from the south this morning ahead of the warm front. It's a very mild morning with the brisk southerly flow. Temps are starting the day in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and dew points are in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Shower and storm coverage increases as we head into this afternoon and evening. There will be two main focuses of convection; the first will be this afternoon and evening as the warm front lifts north of the area, and then another round of showers and storms is expected late tonight ahead of the cold frontal passage. There will be some severe potential today, especially from late this afternoon through the evening hours. Forecast soundings show 500- 1000 J/kg of skinny CAPE, which will limit the large hail potential. However, low level directional shear and 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear will allow for some organized cells and/or some linear segments. Damaging winds will be the primary severe threat today and tonight, however an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out. PWAT values increase to 1.6-1.8 inches this afternoon, with soundings showing deep layer moisture throughout the column. While storm motions of 30-40 kts will prevent widespread flooding issues, there could be some isolated concerns if multiple storms pass over the same areas. As far as temperatures today, assuming that scattered convection pans out this afternoon, rain and cloud cover will hold afternoon high temps to the middle and upper 70s. If convection coverage isn't as widespread this afternoon, a few locations could briefly sneak into the lower 80s. The cold front crosses Eastern KY late tonight and overall there should be a decrease in precipitation after the frontal passage, however with the upper low projected to be in the vicinity of southern IN overnight into early Friday morning, there will still be plenty of low level moisture in place for some scattered rain showers through the morning. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The upper level low slowly lifts NE into northern KY during the afternoon on Friday and into OH by the evening. Scattered showers are expected during the day, and there may be just enough instability during the afternoon to touch off a few isolated thunderstorms, but no severe wx is expected on Friday. Much cooler temps are expected, with afternoon high temps only expected to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 315 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2022 Things will quickly be on the downswing side of things as an upper level trough and associated surface low pivot east through the Mid Atlantic and off the East Coast. Broad ridging, once across the South-Central CONUS, will now meander east, expanding across the Southeast and into the Ohio River Valley. As it does so, any lingering showers/sprinkles bordering the Virginias will diminish through the morning Saturday. From this point and onward, high pressure will remain in control, bringing plentiful sunshine and warming temperatures through mid week. Guidance does hint at the opportunity for some shower/storm chances to return the second half of the work week, but there is large spread and uncertainty from run to run. The ECMWF suggests the blocking pattern to remain, while the GFS implies shortwaves rounding the flow, breaking down the ridge, and bring the return of showers later Wednesday and into Thursday ahead of an advancing cold front. Given the progressive bias of the GFS and decent agreement between the ECMWF and Canadian, as well as some help from cluster analysis, did dial PoPs back to both arrive a bit later Wednesday (late Wednesday night) and lower chances to isolated and scattered. Temperatures through the period will trend warmer throughout. Highs will start in the low to upper 70s Saturday, before warming each day thereafter. NAEFS, EFI, and other ensembles alike continue to provide a weak signal for anomalously warm highs Tuesday and Wednesday, but confidence continues to remain low. As such, did knock down high temperatures a few degrees from the blend to fit more in line with current thinking, but near to record setting values can't be ruled out. Overall, Memorial Day will feature highs in the mid and upper 80s, warming to the upper 80s and lower 90s by Wednesday. Lows will generally follow a similar curve, with ridge valley splits likely most nights. Upper 40s to mid 50s are forecast Saturday night, before warming to the upper 50s and mid 60s overnight Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2022 Conditions were a mix of VFR and MVFR due primarily due to ceilings, and a few showers were present. Outside of precip, largely VFR conditions are expected through the night, but some MVFR ceilings are possible, especially this afternoon north and west of KJKL. With that said, the showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase this afternoon, with most places expecting a round to occur early this evening, but timing is still somewhat uncertain. The heavier showers/storms will bring temporary IFR conditions and gusty winds. The most significant convection is expected to be before about 03Z. Another increase in showers is forecast from west to east from around dawn Friday into the day, along with a greater threat of MVFR ceilings. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM...BB AVIATION...HAL
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 339 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-271045- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 339 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. Some of the storms may contain damaging wind gusts and large hail. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Heavy rainfall may lead to isolated flash flooding, especially if multiple storms pass over the same areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Thunderstorms are possible Friday and Friday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report wind damage or hail today and tonight. CMF/HAS
The Louisville radar (KLVX), 146 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:00 UTC.
13 thunderstorm wind, 2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was blown down on KY Highway 789 near Ramseys Point Road. The Highway Department was called to remove the tree.
A tree was blown down on Webster Drive.
Tree damage, including uprooted or snapped trees, was reported at this location.
Trees were blown down onto powerlines on Etna Road.
A tree was blown down along Old Bandy Road.
A tree was blown down along KY State Route 188 at the 1.7 mile marker.
A tree was blown down along North Wilderness Road just north of Mount Vernon.
A large tree was blown down onto Bluetick Road.
A tree was blown down along State Highway 2011 at the 2.5 mile marker.
Water quickly rose due to thunderstorms with heavy rain and began flowing over KY Highway 441. The water had begun to recede by 6:30 PM EDT (5:30 PM EST).
Tree limbs were blown down onto Kidville Road. The Highway Department was called to remove them.
A tree was blown down near the intersection of State Routes 213 and 1057.
Water was flowing over Route 66 following thunderstorms with heavy rain. It was reported that the water had receded prior to 6:30 PM EDT (5:30 PM EST).
Tree limbs were blown down near the intersection of Camargo Levee Road and Welch Road. The Highway Department was called to remove them.
A tree was blown down at 14 East Water Street.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1027803, 1028052, 1027560, 1027562, 1027563, 1028071, 1027564, 1027569, 1028068, 1028059, 1027566, 1028064, 1028030, 1027567, 1028067.