Winter Weather in Kentucky, March 11 to 12, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
205 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 204 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

As of 115 pm CST this afternoon starting to see the transition
from the northern snow band across southeast Missouri transit
through southern Illinois into the Wabash River Valley into
southwest Indiana to the leading edge of precipitation echoes on
the KPAH radar developing over the Delta region of southeast
Missouri and extreme southern tip of Illinois.

Storm reports of 0.5 to 1.5 inches were received over southeast
Missouri around the noon hour with the initial band, mainly on
elevated road surfaces, secondary roads, and grassy areas.

Made some minor adjustments to timing of Winter Weather Advisory
to reflect the mesoscale timing of the next impulse to move
through the southeast half of the WFO PAH forecast area. Adjusted
the Winter Weather Advisory start time up to 4 pm versus 6 pm to
reflect this faster movement. Convection allowing models and
ensembles, especially the HREF, NamNest, FV3-SAR, Hi-Resolution
FV3, and NAM-WRF ARW guidance worked fairly well yesterday on
timing of the onset of precipitation. However, any mesoscale
banding may not show up as well until later runs. This was the
case with the morning grid update to reflect higher and earlier
snowfall amounts in parts of southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois.

As with the late morning/early afternoon snowfall event, will
likely issue another Special Weather Statement to reflect
increased snowfall/visibility issues parts of west Kentucky and
southeast Missouri around the evening rush hour.

There should be a fairly sharp cutoff of the snow from northwest
to southeast across the WFO PAH forecast area, so would not be
surprised if the western part of the WFO PAH forecast area in
southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois is cancelled no later
than mid-evening, with similar expectation for the rest of the
area within the first few hours after midnight tonight.

Although there was a minor downtick of snowfall amounts forecast
for the southern parts of the Purchase and Pennyrile regions of
west Kentucky with the Thursday and Thursday night forecast
package, the overall trend has been for one to two inches of snow
with this event in the aforementioned area. With the latest QPF
initialization from WPC, the southeast Pennyrile region of west
Kentucky will likely see two plus inch amounts before ending,
owing to the colder ground/road temperatures and below freezing
boundary layer.

Anticipate rapid clearing behind the precipitation shield this
evening. However the surface pressure gradient will usher in
decent cold air advection, pushing temperatures well into the
teens and wind chills hovering slightly below zero to ten above.

As mentioned yesterday, ridging will slowly build in the from the
west on Saturday, allowing temperatures to recover back to morning
highs experienced today over southeast Missouri. Unfortunately,
the NBM was too warm with high temperatures yesterday, so had make
some radical adjustment downward over the tri-state area, bringing
highs down at least another 5 to 10 degrees than forecast
yesterday. This will make for a rather chilly Saturday for most
folks.

Modest warm area advection will take place in the dry airmass on
Sunday, with temperatures catapulting some 35 to 40 degrees in
diurnal range, with highs well into the 50s over the entire WFO
PAH forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 204 pm CST Fri Mar 11 2022

Early next week an upper-level trough will dig into the Southern
Plains from the Rockies. By Monday night, low pressure will be
vertically stacked, likely near ArkLaTex. Between this low and a
weaker area of low pressure in southeastern Ontario, a boundary
will be positioned just north of the Quad State Monday. With high
pressure near the Mid-Atlantic coast, high pressure in the
southeast will steer tropical air northwestward towards the Quad
State. This will keep temperatures around 60 degrees for a high on
Monday.

The more likely solution in the ensembles is for the upper trough to
separate from the main flow and become nearly a closed low across
the Deep South Tuesday through Wednesday. The GFS consistently
remains the northern outlier with regard to the track of the low,
moving it through Tennessee and having higher PoPs and QPF for the
Quad State than the ECMWF/Canadian. The NBM will continue to stick
near the latter pair and keep rain chances fairly low, in the slight
chance to chance range Monday night into Tuesday with QPF on the
order of a tenth of an inch. The extension to Tuesday is new
compared to yesterday's forecast. While most of the contribution to
these PoPs comes from the wrap-around precipitation potential, a
portion of the rain chances Monday night is from the weak boundary
passage.

Despite the shift in winds Tuesday to easterly, the air will still
have a tropical origin, so temperatures are likely to remain similar
to Monday. As southerly flow west of the low begins to move into the
Quad State on Wednesday, warming will resume, with highs near 70
Wednesday-Thursday. Another upper-level trough is expected to form
midweek and track across the Central Plains, bringing rain chances
Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1208 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

Main adjustment for the WFO PAH 18z TAF issuance was to reflect
persistent MVFR to locally IFR ceilings in the bands of heavier
snowfall expected across the area, with the least impact expected
over KEVV and KMVN in the short term. A gradual switch back to VFR
conditions will occur as the snowbands move to the south and
east. with time. May need to adjust visibilities at KPAH and KOWB
later this afternoon to reflect localized increases in snowfall
and lowered ceilings.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     ILZ075>078-080>089-092-093.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for ILZ090-091-
     094.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>111.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for MOZ112-114.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...ATL
AVIATION...Smith

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
216 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     SNOW             PIEDMONT                37.15N 90.70W
03/11/2022  E2.0 INCH        WAYNE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED VIA TWITTER.

0215 PM     SNOW             JOHNSTON CITY           37.82N 88.93W
03/11/2022  M0.5 INCH        WILLIAMSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROADS BECOMING SNOW-COVERED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
229 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     SNOW             MARION                  37.73N 88.94W
03/11/2022  E1.0 INCH        WILLIAMSON         IL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HEAVY SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING.

&&

DWS

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