A stationary front with a moist airmass was situated over the forecast area. As storms developed along the boundary in the afternoon, heavy rainfall combined with training storms moving across the same locations, caused instances of flash flooding across the far eastern portion of the state.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A stationary front with a moist airmass was situated over the forecast area. As storms developed along the boundary in the afternoon, heavy rainfall combined with training storms moving across the same locations, caused instances of flash flooding across the far eastern portion of the state.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 26, 6:38 AM EST, 3 hours 17 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 738 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2022 The forecast generally remains on track. Have increased PoPs across the northern tier of the CWA, as well as beefed up sky coverage here. Have also loaded and blended the latest obs to incorporate any on going trends. Updates have been sent to NDFD and Webfarms. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 415 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2022 The latest surface analysis depicts a quasi-stationary boundary sitting across the Commonwealth early this morning, running from the northern tier of the CWA and back through Western Kentucky. Showers and a few storms have continued, primarily across the southern half of the CWA, as moisture transport is more enhanced in combination with higher PWATs across this area. Anticipate activity to gradually diminish over the next few hours, as the focus shifts north into the morning and afternoon hours. An upper level shortwave is expected to progress across the area today, bringing renewed showers and storms that will overspread from the northwest to the southeast through the day. Flash flooding over the severe threat remains the biggest concern today. Fortunately, FFG is the highest across the north, due to the lack of better convection in these areas yesterday, so the ground will be able to handle this activity much better than the SW. 6-hour mean HREF members suggest the highest QPF to be around an inch, which should be doable for most locations given the drier antecedent conditions. Even so, soundings depict long skinny CAPE in combination of 2" PWATs, which could remedy for a few isolated instances of flash flooding within thunderstorms. This will be particularly so for areas that see repeated activity. Storm motions appear fast enough (around 25 kts) for most issues to be avoided but not entirely ruled out. As the swath of activity shifts southeast into the later part of the day, instability will begin to dwindle, which should aid in diminishing PoP. Working into this evening and tonight, the stalled frontal boundary will begin lifting north in the form of a warm front, as a closed low and associated upper level trough begin digging across Southern Ontario and through the Ohio River Valley. There is some model discrepancy on how much this front actually moves, or if it will at all before washing out across the area. If this is the case, which CAMs are hinting at, we could see a better opportunity for diurnally driven convection again Wednesday afternoon/evening. A cold front will then set its sight to the area, which will be attached to the parent low in Canada, with areas of low pressure expected to develop along this boundary as it works east to end the period. As far as temperatures, will likely see a gradient between the north and south today. With better and more widespread convection expected in the north the first half of the day, it will be challenging for locations to top the mid and upper 70s, while southern counties top out in the mid 80s. Our quietest, or lowest PoP for the short-term, will come early tonight between waves, with a 20-40% between 00-06z. Redevelopment will then occur into the day Wednesday, with highs generally topping out in the low and mid 80s. This could vary though depending on the boundary as well as how widespread cloud cover and convection becomes during the day. Lows tonight will bottom out around the 70 degree mark. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 519 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2022 The aforementioned frontal boundary from the short term period will be slowly dissolving over the region as the long term period begins. The southern edge of the prevailing westerlies aloft will be overhead, with the flow curving around a large closed low over Ontario. The northern edge of the tropical regime interacting with the mid latitude system will result in deep moisture and precipitable water still around 2 inches. Periodic showers/thunderstorms will occur, but confidence in timing is not very high. An impulse moving around the upper low will support another cold front which should move into KY from the northwest on Friday. This front is expected to make it a bit further south before it loses momentum. Presently, it looks like it will stall a little south of KY early in the weekend, allowing somewhat cooler and drier air to arrive, especially in the northern portion of the JKL forecast area. The best chance at seeing a break in the wet weather will be in the north. The very moist atmosphere will allow for efficient rain production, and locations where thunderstorms are most persistent will continue to have a flooding risk before cold fropa. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2022 A tricky day for aviation, as most start in MVFR. The exception is SYM and SJS, where IFR to LIFR ceilings for on going convection will start off the period. As the day progresses, most sites will return to MVFR through the afternoon. Still though, any thunderstorms passing near or over a site will reduce visibilities and ceilings for a time, as well as allow for gusty and erratic winds. The best timeframe for these dips will generally be between 17z and 21z, before bettering conditions to MVFR and VFR return this evening. Winds will generally be out of the southwest today at less than 10 kts. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...BB SHORT TERM...BB LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...BB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 424 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-271130- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 424 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorms are expected today. Any locations that see repeated rounds of storms will be susceptible to flash flooding. The storms will generally diminish during the evening hours, before picking back up late tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday through Monday, which could lead to localized flash flooding. This will be particularly so in areas that see repeated or persistent activity through the week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of flooding through this week. BB/HAL
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 41 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:52 UTC.
10 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Trained storm spotter near Bonaza, KY reported that 1.5 to 2 feet of water was flowing down Abbott Creek Road.
Received a picture from the emergency manager of water flowing over the road on KY-194 near the intersection with KY-2059 (Woodman Creek Road).
Video footage from a storm chaser showed flash flooding and a debris flow over KY-194 near Spears Branch Rd in the community of McCombs.
Flowing water was surrounding a residence along US-460 just west of the Magoffin/Johnson county line.
Received report from social media with photos showing water surrounding multiple homes near the community of Ivel.
Video footage showed Brushy Fork flash flooding over KY-194 at the intersection with Brushy Creek Road near McCombs.
The Pike County Emergency Manager sent a photo of water flowing over the road along Sycamore Creek near the community of Gulnare.
Report of water running across KY-7 near Royalton based on a picture from Twitter.
Video footage showed Ivy Creek flash flooding across Ivy Creek Road near Ivel.
A public report stated that water was flowing over a street in the community of Emmaafter torrential rainfall.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1041990, 1041991, 1041992, 1041993, 1041994, 1041995, 1041997, 1041999, 1042000, 1042001.