Periods of mostly light to moderate rain spread across eastern Kentucky on February 2nd and February 3rd, as waves of low pressure rode along a slow-moving arctic cold front settling in from the northwest. The strongest and last wave of low pressure lifted across the Appalachians late February 3rd and into February 4th bringing with it a final round of rain, changing over to a wintry mix and…
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The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Periods of mostly light to moderate rain spread across eastern Kentucky on February 2nd and February 3rd, as waves of low pressure rode along a slow-moving arctic cold front settling in from the northwest. The strongest and last wave of low pressure lifted across the Appalachians late February 3rd and into February 4th bringing with it a final round of rain, changing over to a wintry mix and eventually snow flurries across eastern Kentucky. While 2-day rainfall amounts ranged from 1.5 to 3.0 inches across much of the area, rainfall rates were low, and only minor flooding was reported, closing several roadways. Rivers reached elevated stages, but only the Red River at Clay City exceeded minor flood stage, spilling across farm fields and low-lying roadways.
This system also produced heavy icing at many locations along and north of I-64. South of I-64, heavy icing became increasingly confined to the higher ridges with southeastward extent. The shallow cold layer with the cold front quickly moved into the Bluegrass on the morning of February 3rd, causing thermometers to fall to near freezing north of I-64 and along the southeast rim of the Bluegrass (down to around western Jackson and northern Rockcastle counties). Some limited daytime heating seemed to keep temperatures just warm enough for plain rain through much the day, but after sunset temperatures cooled just enough for icing to begin. The marginally sub-freezing temperatures and moderate rainfall rates led to runoff and inefficient ice accretion. Further southeast, the shallow cold layer struggled to make much progress into the East Kentucky Coalfield during the day; instead, temperatures largely held in the 40s and 50s through the afternoon. During the evening, the cold layer became deep enough to surge southeastward, bringing with it sub-freezing temperatures to the ridgetops. By the time precipitation tapered off early February 4th, an icy glaze coated the Southeast Bluegrass and many of the higher east Kentucky Coalfield ridges. Very slippery road conditions were reported as far south as Jackson County, and Fleming County issued a Level 2 Weather Emergency due to the hazardous road conditions. However, many of the Coalfield Valleys of southeast Kentucky remained just above freezing until after the rain ended, thus preventing notable icing.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 3, 7:05 AM EST, 1 hour 25 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 705 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday evening) Issued at 620 AM EST THU FEB 3 2022 A messy 24 hours is ahead for eastern Kentucky as arctic cold front settles in from the northwest and low pressure rides up the Appalachians. Ahead of this front, periods of rain will continue throughout the day. Observations show that one 0.5-2.0 inches of rain have already fallen. Additional amounts of 1.5-2.5 inches are expected through tonight. As ground conditions become more saturated, areal flooding should become more common through the day and into tonight. Rainfall rates should be low enough to prevent flash flooding in most areas. However, the concern is slightly greater of far southeast Kentucky where the heaviest rain rates will coincide with the steepest topography. All of this rain will likely lead to elevated stages and/or flooding along area rivers. In addition the heavy rainfall, a shallow layer of below-freezing air will move in behind the front leading to a period of freezing rain. This cold layer is expected to advance southeastward through the Bluegrass fairly quickly, but then slow as it pushes up against the higher terrain of the Eastern Kentucky Coalfield and Pennyroyal Plateau. With time, the cold layer will increase in depth and gradually seep further southeast but this will likely be a slow process. Expect that the greatest icing of one quarter to one half inch will occur north of I-64 later this afternoon and evening when the heaviest precipitation is occurring. To the south of I-64, expect that the cold air will move into the more western to northern exposed valleys and slopes and gradually seep over the dividing ridgelines into more interior valleys. The Red River and Licking River basins will be most susceptible to the cold air creeping in although the Big Sandy will be somewhat susceptible to this as well. The Winter Storm Warning is in effect for areas where this is of greatest concern. The heavier icing should become increasingly confined to the higher ridgetops and northwest- facing upper slopes the southeastern fringe of the warning. In the Winter Weather Advisory, the the freezing layer will arrive after most of the heavy rain has fallen, thus expect only light to perhaps moderate icing,most notably over the higher elevations. Some of the deepest valleys in the far southeast (e.g. Middlesboro and Harlan) may never see icing at all since the precipitation will be tapering off early Friday morning just as the colder air arrives. Much colder temperatures and plentiful clouds will linger through the day on Friday. After seeing highs in the lower 40s (northwest) to near 60 (far southeast) today, temperatures will hold in the 20s through the day. While the steadier precipitation will move out early in the day, persistent upslope flow will lead to additional light flurries or freezing drizzle. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 500 AM EST THU FEB 3 2022 The period is expected to begin with an upper level ridge extending form Caribbean northeast to near Bermuda, an upper level trough from the Hudson bay region south into the Great Lakes and MS Valley to southern Plains region, a cutoff low is expected to the southwest of CA with ridging over the eastern Pacific. Also, a shortwave trough is expected to be upstream of the region at that time and nearing the Lower OH Valley with another shortwave trough moving across BC to the Pacific northwest. The axis of the shortwave trough should move east across the area early in the period on Friday night with a shortwave trough crossing the area as well. Limited moisture cold enough for ice crystals may linger and as the shortwave trough passes and perhaps a weak sfc trough may yield continue flurry chances or a bit of an increase in coverage of flurries for a time late Friday evening into the predawn hours of Saturday. Otherwise, shortwave ridging should work east into portions of the Plains and then into portions of the OH Valley and eastern Conus while the next upstream shortwave moves into the northern Rockies. Height rises and shortwave ridging are expected to progress east into the Lower OH Valley on Saturday leading to clearing skies locally. The next shortwave, meanwhile should move further southeast into the upper MS Valley to Plains regions and ridging builds into the west coast of the Conus. At the sfc, the frontal zone initially in place along or near the eastern seaboard will move east while a sfc system associated with the approaching upper level shortwave and trough will weaken as it moves across the Great Lakes, with high pressure building into the Great Lakes and lower OH Valley region. The shortwave trough should continue progressing southeast into the Great Lakes and across the central and into the southern Plains on Sunday, with the axis of this trough reaching the central Great Lakes to mid MS Valley to southern Plains by late Sunday night. Models begin to diverge from model to model and from run to run as to how quickly this trough moves further east into the eastern Conus and across the OH Valley and Commonwealth during the Monday evening to Tuesday evening period. A brief period of height rises/ridging should follow that system with another shortwave trough poised to approach or move across the region at the middle of next week. Both of these shortwaves should have rather moisture starved associated cold fronts that at this time appear as if they will bring little more than clouds to the region. Below normal temperatures are expected from Friday night through Saturday, in the wake of the system affecting the region in the short term period. Temperatures should moderate from the early to middle part of next week, but will still be below normal with the exception of near normal temperatures for highs on Sunday. Other than chances for flurries on Friday evening and night, precipitation free weather is expected for the Saturday through Wednesday timeframe. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 705 AM EST THU FEB 3 2022 Flying conditions will be poor. A slow-moving cold front will bring an extended period of IFR or worse CIG/VIS today and tonight. LLWS will also be present for a portion of the day at the SJS/JKL/LOZ TAF sites. Periods of rain will continue ahead of the front, but will gradually transition over to a wintry mix behind the front this afternoon and tonight. The heaviest icing and sleet is expected to occur along and adjacent to the I-64 corridor. Winds ahead of the front will be southerly at 5 to 10 kts, become variable as the front passes, and then blow from the north at 5 to 15 kts behind the front. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Friday for KYZ044-050>052. Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ058>060-068-069-079- 080-083>088-104-106>120. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Friday for KYZ058>060-068-069-104-106-108-111. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for KYZ079-080-107-109-112-114. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 3 PM EST Friday for KYZ083>088-110-113-115>120. && SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...GEERTSON
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 549 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 KYZ058>060-068-069-104-106-108-111-041400- Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-Jackson-Elliott-Morgan-Wolfe-Lee- Including the cities of Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Campton, and Beattyville 549 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. A slow moving cold front is bringing a long-duration precipitation event to eastern Kentucky. Rain will change to freezing rain or a wintry mix of precipitation this evening and continue through tonight. Heavy rainfall could result in high water issues today and tonight. See the latest Winter Storm Warning product for more information on winter weather hazards expected in your area. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Wintry precipitation will taper off on Friday morning, but high water is expected to continue on rivers through Friday night. See the latest Winter Storm Warning product for more information on winter weather hazards expected in your area. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed today into Friday for heavy rain, flood, ice, and snow reports. KYZ079-080-107-109-112-114-041400- Pulaski-Laurel-Johnson-Magoffin-Breathitt-Owsley- Including the cities of Burnside, Somerset, London, Paintsville, Salyersville, Jackson, and Booneville 549 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. A slow moving cold front is bringing a long-duration precipitation event to eastern Kentucky. Rain will change to freezing rain or a wintry mix of precipitation late this evening into tonight. Heavy rainfall could result in high water issues today and tonight. See the latest Winter Storm Warning product for more information on winter weather hazards expected in your area. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Wintry precipitation will taper off on Friday morning, but high water is expected to continue on rivers through Friday night. See the latest Winter Storm Warning product for more information on winter weather hazards expected in your area. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed today into Friday for heavy rain, flood, ice, and snow reports. KYZ083>088-110-113-115>120-041400- Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Floyd-Knott-Perry-Clay- Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 549 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. A slow moving cold front is bringing a long-duration precipitation event to eastern Kentucky. Rain will change to freezing rain or a wintry mix of precipitation this evening and continue through tonight. Heavy rainfall could result in high water issues today and tonight. See the latest Winter Storm Warning product for more information on winter weather hazards expected in your area. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Wintry precipitation will taper off by early Friday afternoon, but high water is possible on rivers through Friday night. See the latest Winter Storm Warning product for more information on winter weather hazards expected in your area. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed today into Friday for heavy rain, flood, ice, and snow reports. KYZ044-050>052-041400- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, and Morehead 549 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. A slow moving cold front is bringing a long-duration precipitation event to eastern Kentucky. Rain will change to freezing rain or a wintry mix of precipitation this afternoon to early evening. Heavy rainfall could result in a few high water issues today and tonight. See the latest Winter Storm Warning product for more information on winter weather hazards expected in your area. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Wintry precipitation will taper off on Friday morning, but high water is expected to continue on rivers through Friday night. See the latest Winter Storm Warning product for more information on winter weather hazards expected in your area. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed today into Friday for heavy rain, flood, ice, and snow reports. JP
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 flood, 6 ice storm. Local standard time, as filed.
North KY-11 in Heidrick was reported blocked due to flood waters between mile markers 11 and 12.
At 8:25am EST, the Emergency Manager reported greater than 0.25 inches of ice measured at the Fleming County EOC in Flemingsburg.
The Bath County Emergency Manager reported 0.25 inches of ice accumulation near the community of Owingsville by 7am EST, Friday.
The Emergency Manager in Rowan County reported 0.25 inches of ice on elevated surfaces near the community of Clearfield as of 9:30 am EST.
The Department of Highways reported 0.25 inches of freezing rain/ice in Sandy Hook at 8:30am EST.
KY-1527 was reported blocked due to flood waters between mile markers 0 and 1 near the community of Baileys Switch.
A NWS Employee located 3 miles north of Stanton (near the Montgomery County line) estimated 0.25 inches of ice accumulations on the trees at 7:00 AM EST. A couple hours later, at 9:15 AM EST, the Department of Highways reported over 0.25 inches of ice on elevated surfaces 1 mile SW of Stanton.
A NWS Employee located 3 miles north of Stanton (near the Powell County line) estimated 0.25 inches of ice accumulation on the trees at 7:00 AM EST.
KY-711 near the community of Wrigley was reported as being blocked due to flood waters, between mile markers 3 and 4.
KY-52 was reported being blocked due to floodwaters between mile markers 0 and 2 in Lee County.
Red Lick Road (KY-3328) was reported blocked due to flooding between mile markers 0 and 1.3.
KY-2013 was reported blocked due to flood waters in the community of Jenson.
KY-1527 was reported blocked due to flooding in the area between mile markers 2 and 2.4 in the community of Baileys Switch.
KY-225 was blocked due to flooding in the area at mile marker 4, near the community of Kayjay.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1008959, 1007581, 1007580, 1007584, 1008811, 1008961, 1007579, 1008813, 1008957, 1008956, 1008949, 1008962, 1008964, 1008965.