As a closed, upper-level low situated over the northern Great Plains shifted eastward, a cold front stretched down to Texas. Through the day, the whole system shifted eastward generating severe weather along the Mississippi River Valley.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
As a closed, upper-level low situated over the northern Great Plains shifted eastward, a cold front stretched down to Texas. Through the day, the whole system shifted eastward generating severe weather along the Mississippi River Valley. The 16Z SPC analysis had eastern Kentucky in a Marginal to Slight category for severe weather for this day, with increased chances of tornadoes and wind damage in association with the cold front. As the squall line moved closer, the initial warnings were issued 2123L EDT and 2140L EDT for the western tier of counties in the Jackson forecast area, before the storms fell below severe weather criteria and SPSs were issued for the squall line through the remainder of the southeast Kentucky.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 13, 7:45 PM EST, 1 hour 14 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 845 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 813 PM EDT WED APR 13 2022 Temperatures in the valleys were cooling faster than originally expected. The drying low levels and calming winds has allowed for noticeable decoupling at those locations. Adjustments were made to the temperature and wind through the front's arrival to account for the split. The dew points were running slightly below the obs, so those were brought up and blended using the short blend. The POPs were not adjusted at this time, but another update may occur depending on the track of the upstream QLCS activity and potential overnight dissipation. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 500 PM EDT WED APR 13 2022 20Z sfc analysis shows a pressure ripple moving through in association with the MCV currently moving some light rain showers to the CWA. This wave also helped to bring down some higher wind gusts of 40 mph or so in the clearing out ahead of it. This clearing allowed sunshine to spike temperatures but then the thicker MCV clouds and showers took them back down, but do expect a couple more hours of sunshine and heating to rebuild instability over our west before sunset. Temperatures currently vary from the upper 70s to near 80 in the far east to the mid 60s in the west and north where the MCV's rain cooled the air. Dewpoints also varied across the wave with some drier values near 50 in the far east thanks to the better sunshine earlier and low to mid 60s in the wake of this lead feature. Meanwhile, winds are generally from the south southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph in general, but up to 40 mph just ahead of the sfc wave. The models are just in okay agreement aloft with themselves and in particular having trouble capturing and modeling the MCV. While they all have it to a certain extent they uniformly dampened it too quickly. Otherwise, the main feature is the very deep and well wrapped up closed low spinning east from the Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest tonight and Thursday. This dominant feature is handled very well by the models with the main energy lifting northeast of Kentucky. The 5h height falls associated with the gyre to the north bottom out later Thursday night with some rebounding by dawn Friday in the nearly zonal flow south of the upper low. Given the narrow model spread post MCV, did stick with the blended solution from the NBM without much wide-scale adjustments. For the near term, current conditions and some of the CAMs simulated radar guidance proved most useful. Sensible weather will feature a likely rather warm but quiet evening before the main batch of storms start to move into the area - closer towards midnight. Expect a squall line or its remnants to move into eastern Kentucky toward late evening and through the first part of the overnight. The actual front follows prolonging the threat of showers and possible thunderstorms. The main severe threat remains damaging wind gusts from whatever line holds together enough to move into the CWA. Should a discrete cell or two manage to develop ahead of this expected line a tornado cannot be ruled out given the ample low level helicity to go along with rebuilding instability. Additionally, a QLCS spawned tornado or two remain possible with the highest threat found generally west of I-75. Otherwise, the squall line will likely fall apart per usual over our CWA with an uptick in coverage possible, following this initial dampening, owing to the arrival of the actual cold front. Post frontal, the winds die off from the west with drier air clearing out the PoPs west to east into early Thursday morning along with cooler temperatures. This dry air will make for a return of sunshine on Thursday as temperatures see a limited rebound. Clear skies and lighter winds will set the stage for a cool night with an anticipated ridge to valley temperature split to develop and perhaps some limited fog in the river valleys. Did end up adding in a bit of an extra temperature drop off for the valleys this evening before the approaching front and convection mixes them back out. Also enhanced the terrain distinctions in the temperatures Thursday night. As for PoPs, made the most adjustments in the near term with some tweaking for the dissolution of the mesoscale squall line followed shortly by the arriving synoptic front. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 325 PM EDT WED APR 13 2022 Surface high pressure will start the period off, sitting across the spine of the Appalachians and allow for warmer air to advect in through the day. Mid level heights will rise modestly during the day, with quasi-zonal flow in place aloft. A closed low sits across Ontario, while shortwaves nose in from the Pacific Northwest and across Southwestern Canada. A fairly moisture starved cold front will take aim at the area into the weekend, bringing isolated to low end scattered showers. Guidance has continued to trend down in QPF, with the GFS and Canadian suggesting nearly entirely dry solutions. A shortwave dropping from Saskatchewan through the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes will support a low with a cold front running south and curling west across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valley. The GFS is much quicker than the ECMWF, which also lines up within ensemble runs. Nearly a third of ENS members (34%) suggest a much deeper, more southerly positioned, and slower trough evolution, while 54% of GEFS members are in favor of a flatter and more progressive wave Sunday and into next week. Given the differences in strength, timing, and location, have geared toward the blend until better agreement emerges into early next week. High pressure will then press in from the Mid Mississippi Valley post-front, allowing for dry conditions to return Tuesday evening and through the end of the period. Sensible weather will feature periods of showers and near to slightly below average temperatures through the period. Afternoon highs will top out in the low to mid 70s Friday, before decreasing through the weekend with added cloud coverage/showers and the passing front. They will moderate some into next week, but generally stay cooler than average through the end of the period. Similarly, lows will be mild Friday night into Saturday, ranging from the upper 40s and low 50s, before dropping into the mid 30s to low 40s through the remainder of the extended. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT WED APR 13 2022 VFR conditions will hang on through late this evening, before an approaching line of showers and scattered thunderstorms move in from the west from 03 to 08z out ahead of an advancing cold front. These storms will gradually weaken as they head deeper into eastern Kentucky during the early overnight hours. KSME will stand the best chance at seeing some stronger wind gusts and some temporary MVFR or lower conditions. Eventually, as the cold front makes it through the area, ceilings will lower down to MVFR at all locations, before clouds scatter out from west to east Thursday morning, as high pressure builds in across the region. Southeast to southwest winds of 5 to 10 kts, will generally increase to 10 to 15 kts, with gusts of 20 to 25 kts as the line approaches from the west. An increasing low level jet will also allow for a smaller window of LLWS across the area, before the main line of showers and storms approach, mixing out the inversion. Winds will then shift to the west to west northwest behind the storms and cold front. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...BB AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 345 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-142245- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 345 PM EDT Wed Apr 13 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible tonight. A few of these storms may be severe, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, mainly west of I-75. Outside of thunderstorms, gusty south to southwest winds are expected this evening and into the overnight with gusts up to 35 mph. Some locally higher gusts are possible, especially at higher elevations. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any storm damage and tonight. GREIF/BB
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 66 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:01 UTC.
6 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was reported down, blocking KY-52 at Reges Road. Another tree was blown down onto powerlines on Reges Road.
The highway department reported a tree down across KY-1028 between mile marker 3 and 4.
The highway department reported a tree down across KY-1057 around mile marker 2.
The highway department reported a tree down across KY-213 around mile marker 6 near Stanton, KY.
A public report from Marshes Siding, Kentucky reported multiple trees down due to the gust front.
Powell County dispatch reported that a house off of Darrell Randall Rd in Stanton, Kentucky had its roof blown off, as well as a vehicle damaged from the roof.
WKYT in Lexington also reported on this story. The information can be found at: https://www.wymt.com/2022/04/18/it-sounded-like-house-was-going-blow-apart-eastern-kentucky-family-cleaning-up-after-strong-storms-dealt-severe-damage/ .
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, April 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1008812, 1008803, 1008805, 1008806, 1008808, 1008816.