Rip Current in Puerto Rico, April 13, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1100 AM AST Wed Apr 13 2022

.UPDATE...
Fair weather continues over Puerto Rico with traces of precipitation
as moisture values remain low, expressed by the SJU 12z/8am AST
Upper Air observation reading 0.93 inches of precipitable water.
Light streamers are starting to form off of the upstream islands and
cloud development in the south-east has begun. Temperatures are
starting to rise quickly as expected with the lack of cloud
coverage, therefore afternoon showers in the west are posible.
Surface to 700mb winds are predominately easterly, providing
reason for the central Western areas of Puerto Rico to experience
the most shower activity. Nothing significant is expected as
moisture value remain low until tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected to prevail across the local
terminals through the forecast period. Easterly winds 15 to 20 KT
with sea breeze variations through at least 13/22z becoming at 10
knots overnight.

&&

.MARINE...A northerly swell and breezy conditions continue to
influence local waters. Seas up to 8 feet are expected tonight
with wind speeds up to 20 knots with stronger gusts. These
conditions will sustain for multiple days, therefore a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect for multiple northern exposed zones until
the weekend. High Risk of rip currents are in effect for most
beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 457 AM AST Wed Apr 13 2022/

SYNOPSIS...Fair weather is expected today with scattered
showers expected for portions of western and northwestern Puerto
Rico during the afternoon hours. Marine conditions continue
deteriorating across the local waters. High risk of rip currents
are in effect for the north and eastern beaches of Puerto
Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect for the Atlantic offshore waters.

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...

The latest guidance keeps the local area in a dry slot today with
below normal moisture, but near normal moisture is expected for
Thursday and Friday. The model agreement for little to no weather
today is very strong, just about all models at different resolutions
agree that there is a very slight chance of rain today. That being
said, there is always some uncertainty, and therefore, isolated to
scattered but very brief showers are forecast in the morning across
the local waters, USVI, and eastern PR. Mostly fair weather is
forecast in the afternoon, with only a slight chance of brief
showers in the forecast for most of the local islands, while a small
section of eastern and western PR having scattered showers in the
forecast. Any rainfall accumulations is expected to be minimal.

A surface high pressure, across the western Atlantic will cause
moderate to locally strong easterly winds for the next few days.
Winds could reach 20mph over the coastal areas. A broad upper level
trough with strong winds will move over the area on Thursday, which
will cause divergence and increase the chances of thunderstorms over
the local area. In addition, the 500mb temps will be getting colder
with each day, and by Thursday, the 500mb temps will be below
normal, which would support thunderstorm development. The upper
level winds will be slightly weaker for Friday, and the deep
moisture is expected to remain to the north of the local islands, so
the shower and thunderstorm potential on Friday may be mostly across
the northern and western portions of PR and near the northern USVI,
mainly in the afternoon hours.

The daytime temperatures over the next few days are forecast to be
in the mid 80s across the lower elevations, and in the upper 70s to
low 80s across the higher elevations. Overnight lows are forecast to
be in the low to mid 70s across the lower elevations, and in the 60s
across the higher elevations.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...

Bands of moisture associated to the remnants of a cold front will
prevail until late Saturday. On Sunday, a drier air mass is expected
to entrain, with strong trades that are favorable for the
development of morning showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands, and
eastern sectors of Puerto Rico from time to time. Warmer
temperatures are expected. By Monday onwards, a low pressure will
establish north of the area. Therefore, an area of moisture being
pulled from South America, especially Colombia and Venezuela
could potentially enhance unstable conditions aloft producing a
rainfall event over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The
potential for the development of organized convection exist with
isolated thunderstorms. Possible weather impacts to take in
consideration are flash flooding, urban and small stream flooding,
landslides and ponding of water in low drainage areas. This
pattern will linger through the end of the long period.

AVIATION...VFR conditions expected to prevail across the local
terminals through the forecast period. ISOL/SCT SHRA expected
through 13/14Z, causing VCSH across TJSJ and TIST. After 13/17Z, VFR
conds expected to continue, but VCSH is possible at TJBQ. Winds will
be from the E at 15 KT or less through 13/13Z, increasing to 15 to
20 KT with stronger gusts and sea breeze variations thereafter.

MARINE...A northerly swell will promote choppy to hazardous
marine conditions, with building seas up to 7 feet across the
local waters. Small Craft Advisories (SCAs) are in effect for the
offshore Atlantic waters. Later in the day, SCAs will be in
effect for most of the local waters. High risk of rip currents
are in effect for the north and eastern facing beaches of Puerto
Rico, including Vieques, Culebra and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  85  75  85  74 /  30  40  40  50
STT  84  74  85  73 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for Culebra-
     North Central-Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and Vicinity-
     Southeast-Vieques.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for Mayaguez and
     Vicinity.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for St Croix-
     St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM AST Friday
     for Coastal Waters of Northern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM AST Saturday for Atlantic Waters
     of Puerto Rico and USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Thursday to 2 AM AST Friday for
     Anegada Passage Southward to 17N-Coastal Waters of Northern
     USVI and Culebra out 10 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM AST Friday
     for Mona Passage Southward to 17N.

&&

Aviation...OM
Update....RC
PUBLIC DESK...RVT

Perspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR
538 AM AST miercoles 13 de abril de 2022

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-141000-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-
Este Interior-Norte Central Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-
Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Las aguas costeras cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y
538 AM AST miercoles 13 de abril de 2022

Esta Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo es para
Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Viento...Se esperan vientos sostenidos en exceso de 20 MPH (17
nudos) a traves de sectores de las aguas locales y areas costeras.

.Oleaje...Se espera oleaje peligroso de hasta 7 pies en las aguas
del Atlantico hoy, aumentando hasta 8 pies esta noche. El Pasaje de
la Mona observara oleaje de hasta 7 pies comenzando esta noche.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo alto de corrientes
marinas desde el noroeste hacia el noreste, y tambien el sureste de
Puerto Rico, toda Culebra y la mitad este de Vieques. Riesgo
moderado de corrientes marinas en el resto de las playas.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...jueves a martes

Hay un riesgo de moderado a alto de corrientes marinas para la
mayoria de las playas locales por los proximos dias. La probabilidad
de tronadas aumenta desde el jueves en adelante debido a vientos
fuertes en los niveles altos y temperaturas frias en los niveles
medios. La actividad de aguaceros y tronadas podria causar
inundaciones en areas urbanas y pequenos riachuelos comenzando el
jueves. Un area amplia de humedad podria estar entrando al area
desde el sur desde el domingo en adelante, cual podria causar varios
dias lluviosos si ocurre como sugieren los modelos a largo plazo.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Sin embargo, le
agradeceriamos reportar cualquier informacion sobre vientos, oleaje
y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San
Juan.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-141000-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-
Santa Cruz-Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes
del Caribe-
538 AM AST miercoles 13 de abril de 2022

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses y las aguas costeras adyacentes.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Viento...Se esperan vientos sostenidos en exceso de 20 MPH (17
nudos) a traves de sectores de las aguas locales y areas costeras.

.Oleaje...Se espera oleaje peligroso de hasta 7 pies en las aguas
del Atlantico hoy, aumentando hasta 8 pies esta noche. El Pasaje de
la Mona observara oleaje de hasta 7 pies comenzando esta noche.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas
para la mayoria de las playas de San Tomas y el norte y este de
Santa Cruz.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...jueves a martes

Hay un riesgo de moderado a alto de corrientes marinas para la
mayoria de las playas locales por los proximos dias. La probabilidad
de tronadas aumenta desde el jueves en adelante debido a vientos
fuertes en los niveles altos y temperaturas frias en los niveles
medios. La actividad de aguaceros y tronadas podria causar
inundaciones menores en areas de poco drenaje comenzando el jueves.
Un area amplia de humedad podria estar entrando al area desde el sur
desde el domingo en adelante, cual podria causar varios dias
lluviosos si ocurre como sugieren los modelos a largo plazo.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Sin embargo, le
agradeceriamos reportar cualquier informacion sobre vientos, oleaje
y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San
Juan.