Winter Weather in Kansas, November 14, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022

WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure swinging
east through the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, a cold front is
pushing slowly southeast across west central and extreme southwest
Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2022

Vigorous but still moisture-starved closed midlevel cyclone was
spinning just north of Las Vegas, Nevada at midday. Infrared
satellite imagery revealed a clear sky continuing across Kansas,
but cirrus will be increasing this afternoon as the storm begins
its approach. Strong return flow had established across SW KS,
with gusts of 41-44 mph already observed at DDC, GCK and LBL.
Gusts of 40-45 mph will continue through the afternoon, as the
next cold front begins to impinge on NW KS.

Clouds will increase rapidly tonight, in response to the cyclone
arriving in New Mexico by sunrise Monday. The associated cold
front will be diving south through SW KS at the same time,
reaching the northwest zones around midnight, and bisecting the
CWA by sunrise. Elevated north winds of 20-30 mph can be expected
behind the cold front. Approaching forcing for ascent will
interact with the frontal boundary, with light snow expected to
break out across the southwest zones first, prior to sunrise
Monday. Strong cold advection will drive 850/700 mb temperatures
well below 0C around this same time, ensuring all precipitation
will fall as snow.

After coordination with WFOs AMA/OUN/ICT, an impact-based winter
weather advisory will be issued for daylight Monday for all zones.
Light snow will overspread SW KS rapidly during the morning
commute Monday. Given that 1) this is the first snow of the
new winter driving season, 2) it will be falling during
school/business hours, and 3) air/ground/road temperatures will be
cold enough to allow some snow to accumulate, feel an advisory is
appropriate to gain attention and support partners and customers.
This system will be quite progressive, and that quick movement
always works against significant QPF in SW KS. With the residency
time of accumulating snow limited to 6 hours or less at any one
location, snow amounts will be limited to 1-2 inches. Mesoscale
banding is evident on the various CAMs, and the exact placement and
duration of these bands will determine exact amounts in the 1-2,
locally 3 inch range for exact locations. In general, snow will
favor the western and central zones Monday morning, and then quickly
transition to the southeast zones, south and east of Dodge City,
Monday afternoon. Aligned pops in this progression, emphasizing
about a 6 hour window of impacts in the forecast for each location.
For simplicity, will issue the advisory for all zones all day, and
let future shifts trim away the advisory as the snow ends west to
east. North winds will be elevated as the snow fall, gusting to near
30 mph, and included areas of blowing snow in the grids.

Really, more than the snow, the primary impact Monday will be the
cold air. Clouds and cold air advection will force temperatures
to stay in the 20s all day for most locations. Wind chill indices
will approach zero across northwest zones Monday morning, and
remain in the teens all zones Monday afternoon. Residents are
urged to prepare homes, autos, pets and livestock for Monday's
cold.

The next cold surface ridge builds in behind the storm Monday
night and Tuesday morning, allowing for another cold night.
Radiational cooling does not look ideal, with some light NWly
downslope modification, and 12z MOS numbers trended up several
degrees. Chose to keep temperatures well down into the mid teens
with the expected light snow cover.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 110 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2022

Key Messages:
- A long stretch of cold is expected, with both afternoon and
  morning temperatures well below November normals.
- Another long dry stretch, with little if any chance of
  measurable precipitation through next weekend.

Cold surface ridging will remain locked in place through Tuesday,
with models showing cold advection through much of the column.
With very low thickness and the expectation of snow cover to melt,
trimmed NBM's max temp grid several degrees down into the 30s.

All aboard the cold air train, as repeated surges of cold Canadian
air are expected through Saturday. None of these appear
particularly strong/cold, and the coldest air will certainly stay
northeast of Kansas, but the synoptic evolution of a cyclonic gyre
remaining stationary over the northern plains will simply not
allow temperatures to moderate. Temperatures, both day and night,
will remain well below normal through Saturday, with no sign of
any moderation until next Sunday. One of the strongest cold air
reinforcements is scheduled with the initial cold front Thursday,
followed by the coldest air on Friday. 12z ECMWF has 850 mb
temperatures near -9C, so Friday will be frigid with temperatures
remaining below freezing all day. There may be some snow flurries
with this surge as NBM/ECMWF suggests, but certainly nothing of
consequence.

Sunday through Tuesday, models and their ensemble means depict a
warming trend, as mid level flow becomes perpendicular to the
Rockies, and lee troughing reestablishes. It all looks dry
unfortunately, with no precipitation expected through 22 November.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites overnight.
Low level stratus developing in southeast Colorado and northeast
New Mexico is expected to spread northeast into southwest Kansas
later this morning, resulting in widespread MVFR cig development
generally after 12-14Z. Brief periods of IFR cigs cannot be ruled
out through late morning. Light to moderate snow is also expected
to accompany the lowering deck layer, potentially bringing periods
of MVFR/IFR vsbys to the vicinity of all TAF sites through early/mid-
afternoon. Northerly winds around 15 to 25kt with gusts up to 30kt
will develop behind a cold front pushing through southwest Kansas
later this morning. This may create blowing snow conditions in
some areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  24  31  15  39 /  70  90   0   0
GCK  21  31  14  38 /  70  90   0   0
EHA  22  34  18  40 /  70  90   0   0
LBL  23  34  15  40 /  70  90   0   0
HYS  22  32  15  38 /  40  60  10   0
P28  30  35  20  42 /  10  90  50   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Turner
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...JJohnson
FIRE WEATHER...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
325 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2022

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-140930-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
325 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2022 /225 AM MST Sun Nov 13 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Gusty south winds and low relative humidity will produce elevated
to near-critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. Outdoor
burning is discouraged.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Snow will be possible across portions of southwest and central
Kansas Monday, introducing the potential for some impacts to
travel.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.