NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 12, 11:49 AM CST, 11 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 12, 11:49 AM CST, 11 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1249 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022
...Updated Aviation Section...
.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022
...Intense Winds, Blowing Dust, and Extreme Fire Danger Tuesday...
A strong and broad low level jet was in progress over SW KS at
midnight, with 850 winds of 50-60 kts. In response, the boundary
layer was well mixed, with south/southeast winds elevated and
gusty, up to 40 mph. The combination of the mixing, warm advection
at 850 mb, and scattered cirrus will keep many locations in the
50s through sunrise. Stratus will stream into central Kansas
through morning, and some of this may briefly invade the eastern
zones through sunrise.
At midnight, the advertised powerful 529 dm closed cyclone was
centered over Idaho. Associated leeside cyclogenesis will continue
to organize near Denver through sunrise, then subsequently shift
to SW Nebraska/NW Kansas Tuesday afternoon, further deepening to
980-983 mb. Intense southwest winds will overspread SW KS in
response, kicking into full gear about midday. GFS forecast
soundings show a deeply mixed boundary layer, mixed all the way to
near 600 mb, where SWly winds will average 50-55 kts. Given the
hot dry downslope behind the dryline, momentum aloft at the top of
this mixed layer will easily mix to the ground during peak
heating, with gusts of 50-60 mph common. Fully expect widespread
blowing dust to be generated across southwest zones, both
generated locally, and imported from the exceptional drought
regions of the panhandles and West Texas. Dust continues in the
grids, and no changes are planned to the inherited high wind
warning. Agree with previous forecaster that strongest gusts (to
near 65 mph) are probable across far southwest zones adjacent to
Oklahoma and up the US 83 corridor.
Dryline is forecast by 00z NAM to hang out in the vicinity of
Barber county at peak heating, and expect it to be lurking in the
southeast zones this afternoon. Models are very resistant to
developing convection even near our CWA, given intense EML
capping. Do not feel dryline circulations will be enough for a
sustained updraft near Barber county, but will monitor.
Temperatures will soar behind the dryline this afternoon, with the
hottest temperatures so far in 2022 for many. Upper 80s will be
common, with the hottest temperatures immediately behind the
dryline in the Red Hills southeast of Dodge City (90-95).
Intense cold front is expected to be crashing into the northwest
zones around 7 pm, and race completely through the CWA no later
than midnight. An abrupt northerly wind shift is expected, and
post frontal north winds will easily gust to at least 50 mph,
preferring the US 83 corridor. Significant blowing dust is
expected to accompany this frontal passage, before north winds
gradually decouple and relax through the overnight hours. As the
cold front collides with the dryline over central Kansas, a squall
line is expected to erupt, but thinking is this will be just east
of the CWA. Midlevel clouds will increase overnight as the primary
trough approaches, and included some sprinkles in the forecast as
ECMWF continues to suggest. With a very dry boundary layer,
measurable rain will be hard to come by. Dramatically colder air
invades Wednesday morning, with 850 mb temperatures crashing to the
0 to -2C range. After 80s Tuesday, many western locations will be
below freezing Wednesday morning.
Dramatically cooler Wednesday, as the primary trough axis swings
through, and northwest winds gradually relax. Included some light
rain showers or sprinkles Wednesday morning per ECMWF, with
positive vorticity advection acting on dry air, but again
measurable rain will be scarce. Some of the rain could be mixed
with wet snow flakes. Afternoon temperatures will struggle to the
lower and mid 50s, or some 30 degrees cooler than Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Unfortunately for the continuing and expanding drought, the
entire forecast is dry for all of southwest Kansas through the
upcoming Easter weekend.
As winds trend light and variable, a freeze is expected Thursday
morning, with all locations well down into the 20s. A few hours
of mid 20s will likely cause damage to unprotected early
vegetation.
Temperatures will warm rapidly Thursday and Friday, as mid level
flow becomes zonal, heights/thicknesses climb quickly, and mid
April sunshine does its magic. Afternoon temperatures will bounce
back to the 60s Thursday and 70s Friday, along with relatively
light winds for pleasant spring days.
Medium range models are in agreement with the next cold frontal
passage around Saturday morning. Northeast winds will be elevated,
certainly over the NBM, with easterly boundary layer components
trimming afternoon temperatures well down into the 60s (about a 10
degree drop from Friday). Another shortwave passes Sunday, but as
is so often the case, any rainfall from this will favor eastern
Kansas Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will bounce back to the 70s
Sunday afternoon, before yet another dry cold front races through
Sunday night/early Monday with elevated north winds. 00z ECMWF
depicts still another dry cold front Monday night/early Tuesday.
None of these fronts appears overly cold, but they will continue to
push the moisture source region from the Gulf of Mexico away, and
the forecast will remain dry.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022
High wind event was just getting underway at the onset of this TAF
period. The high winds out of the southwest will gust in the 45 to
50 knot range much of the afternoon until about an hour or so
prior to sunset. Widespread blowing dust is expected to lead to at
least MVFR flight category at LBL, GCK, and perhaps DDC for a few
hours during the peak of the event. A wind shift to the northwest
will occur late this evening with sustained winds in the 20 to 25
knot range behind the front. Winds will remain around this speed
much of the remainder of this TAF period, however flight category
will resume to VFR after the blowing dust settles down this
evening, as we do not expect low stratus development this far west
behind the cold front.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022
Dangerous wildfire conditions are expected across all zones
Tuesday, from about noon through about 9 pm CDT. After 10 am,
intense southwest winds are expected to average 30-40 mph with
gusts of 50-60 mph common. Unseasonably warm temperatures in the
upper 80s and lower 90s will force minimum relative humidity to
fall to 10-15%. Dormant fuels are exceptionally dry, particularly
south and west of Dodge City, as severe to exceptional drought
continues. This is a rare fuel/meteorological combination that
may result in an outbreak of wildfires Tuesday afternoon. Fire
managers are urged to prepare resources. Importantly, a strong
cold front will race through SW KS Tuesday evening, with an abrupt
shift to intense north winds. This wind shift will make any fire
containment extremely difficult. Given this wind shift and the
expectation of fires in progress, this high end red flag warning
will continue through 9 pm (through sunset).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 89 33 53 26 / 0 10 20 0
GCK 87 30 52 24 / 10 10 20 0
EHA 82 30 54 25 / 0 10 20 0
LBL 87 30 55 24 / 0 10 20 0
HYS 88 33 54 24 / 10 10 10 0
P28 93 43 60 30 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Turner
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid
FIRE WEATHER...Turner