Slow moving thunderstorms produced isolated heavy rainfall. Emergency management reported flash flooding with deep stationary water on roads near West Ave.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DVN wrote it up.
Slow moving thunderstorms produced isolated heavy rainfall. Emergency management reported flash flooding with deep stationary water on roads near West Ave. and S. Garfield in Burlington.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 3, 5:27 PM CST, 1 hour 59 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 627 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 452 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Southwestward moving MCV is helping focus storms along a cluster from earlier near Carroll/Jo Daviess to Clinton/Whiteside this past couple hours, and now in Scott and Rock Island (likely soon in Henry IL). Very heavy rain is occurring in this cluster, especially from new updrafts. Storm motions are very slow, but the cluster is pushing south with an outflow apparent on radar. I've been SPS'ing these storms, with a torrential rain threat, and lightning, but some weak downburst signatures on radar support mention of wind as well. These storms are moving into a drier portion of the CWA soon, so hopefully, they'll be less problematic and more beneficial soon. ERVIN && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 18Z surface data has a weak low near KEFT in southern Wisconsin. The cold front ran southwest from the low roughly along the Mississippi and then southwest into southern Kansas. Dew points ahead of the front were in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Behind the front dew points were in the 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Through sunset isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be seen generally along/east of the Mississippi. Brief downpours are likely from the stronger storms. After sunset the showers and thunderstorms east of the Mississippi will slowly dissipate through midnight. On Sunday cloud cover will persist through much of the morning followed by gradual clearing from west to east during the afternoon. The proximity of an upper low 'may' allow some isolated showers or even a thunderstorm to develop east of the Mississippi and south of I-80. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 Overall long-term signal trend suggests temperatures at or slightly above normal over the next two weeks. The precipitation signal is unclear but based on recent trends around or somewhat below normal seems reasonable. Sunday night through Tuesday Assessment...low confidence on precipitation The model consensus signal suggests the potential for diurnally driven convection occurring east of the Mississippi Sunday night through Tuesday. Here the consensus has slight chance pops. The pops are driven mainly by the CMC as it has light precipitation each day. The GFS/GEFS is actually fairly dry for a change. The ECMWF/EPS has little if any precipitation as well. Wednesday through Friday night Assessment...medium to high confidence on temperatures at or sightly above normal. The model consensus has dry conditions through the period as high pressure moves to the mid-Atlantic states. However I cannot fully rule out a rogue shower or thunderstorm developing in the afternoon each day. If diurnal convection would develop, overall coverage would probably be 5 percent of the area. Saturday Assessment...medium confidence on rain chances The model consensus has slight chance pops for essentially the entire area Saturday afternoon. The models have pushed the rain chances back one full day and now are suggesting a weak cold front will move through the area anywhere from Friday night through Saturday night. Pooling of moisture along the front may allow for some isolated storms to develop. Interestingly the deterministic ECMWF brings the front through dry but lights up rain along the front when it stalls Saturday night into Sunday. Ditto for the CMC. The GFS/GEFS are slightly faster with the arrival of the front (Friday night) but do generate rain during the day Saturday. Thus the slight chance pops for Saturday look reasonable for now. Given how many fronts have come through dry this year, I would not be surprised if this front came through dry as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 A slow moving cold front, with a cluster of slow moving, but storms with very heavy rain, are moving south over locations near MLI through GBG early this evening. Other more isolated showers and storms are in southeast Iowa, and light isolated showers to the north through DBQ. These storms will drop south, and slowly dissipate this evening. Otherwise, the cold front will continue the low clouds spreading in from Wisconsin on the northeast winds overnight. These clouds will slowly lift and break up through the late morning and afternoon hours Sunday. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && UPDATE...Ervin SYNOPSIS...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...Ervin
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 335 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-040845- Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson- Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson- Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll- Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson- Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark- 335 AM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. The main threat from any storm would be lightning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
551 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022
ILZ016-032330-
Henry IL-
551 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Henry County
through 630 PM CDT...
At 551 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Kewanee to Andover. Movement was south at
25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Kewanee around 600 PM CDT.
Woodhull and Alpha around 610 PM CDT.
This includes Interstate 74 in Illinois between mile markers 19 and
33.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4123 8987 4115 8987 4115 9040 4137 9042
4137 8986 4123 8986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 345DEG 21KT 4131 8988 4131 9030
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ErvinSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
630 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022
ILZ015-016-024-026-040000-
Warren IL-Mercer IL-Rock Island IL-Henry IL-
630 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Warren,
south central Rock Island, eastern Mercer and southwestern Henry
Counties through 700 PM CDT...
At 630 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lynn Center, or 11 miles west of Cambridge, moving south at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
New Windsor around 645 PM CDT.
Woodhull, Alpha and New Windsor around 650 PM CDT.
Other locations in the path of this storm include North Henderson.
This includes Interstate 74 in Illinois between mile markers 19 and
33.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4091 9046 4133 9054 4138 9031 4115 9020
4115 9044 4091 9044
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 001DEG 18KT 4129 9041
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ErvinPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
644 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0643 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NW DAVENPORT 41.56N 90.62W
09/03/2022 M1.95 INCH SCOTT IA TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
GROSSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
716 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0714 PM HEAVY RAIN FARMINGTON 40.64N 91.74W
09/03/2022 E0.80 INCH VAN BUREN IA TRAINED SPOTTER
RAIN FELL IN 30 MIN.
&&
GROSSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
734 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022
IAZ089-099-ILZ024>026-034-035-040115-
Warren IL-Mercer IL-Henderson IL-McDonough IL-Hancock IL-
Des Moines IA-Lee IA-
734 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Hancock,
Henderson, Warren, northern McDonough, southeastern Mercer, central
Des Moines and northeastern Lee Counties through 815 PM CDT...
At 734 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Galesburg to 6 miles northwest of
Gladstone. Movement was south at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Gladstone around 740 PM CDT.
Burlington around 745 PM CDT.
West Burlington around 750 PM CDT.
Other locations in the path of these storms include Gulf Port,
Carman, Dallas City, Terre Haute and Disco.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4060 9150 4107 9108 4107 9095 4115 9092
4121 9079 4107 9044 4062 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 003DEG 17KT 4096 9047 4090 9107
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ErvinPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
809 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0809 PM HEAVY RAIN CAMBRIDGE 41.30N 90.20W
09/03/2022 M1.40 INCH HENRY IL TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
GROSSThe Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 101 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:23 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Slow moving thunderstorms produced isolated heavy rainfall. Emergency management reported flash flooding with deep stationary water on roads near West Ave. and S. Garfield in Burlington.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, September 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1057567.