Tornado and Hail in Iowa, June 14, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
634 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

As evident on the visible satellite, a cold front bisects the area
this afternoon, with temps ranging from seasonably reasonable low
80s near South Dakota to mid-90s in closer to Missouri. Triple
digit heat indices have infected western Iowa.

A heat advisory continues for our far southeastern counties until
7pm.

That's when our attention can turn entirely to the severe weather
potential. Plenty of CAPE across the area this afternoon, it's
held at bay by a cap of about -200 J/Kg of CIN. As humidity
climbs ahead of the front and the EML cools, surface based storms
may develop south of a line from Council Bluffs to Lincoln to
Daykin, NE. These storms will have up to 4000 J/Kg of CAPE to work
with and plenty of shear. Storms along the front could produce a
tornado, but hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats.
Three hour flash flood guidance of only 1.5-2" would suggest that
any training along the front could produce some flash flooding.
The 12Z HREF suggests about a 10% neighborhood probability of 3"
of QPF in three hours in southwest Iowa. Heavy rain is a
possibility for the entire area with PWATs at about 2".

This initial wave of storms may be overshadowed later in the
evening by some elevated convection as the LLJ kicks into gear.
This will push the action north of the relatively stationary
front. The low- level stability may decrease the odds of severe
wind potential a bit, but forecast soundings don't exactly
preclude it.

If the storms grow upscale into an QLCS, the cold pool may help
keep them surface based and capable of producing a mesovortext and
perhaps a quick spin up tornado.

Convection continues overnight, generally moving north across the
CWA and exiting the region just before sunrise. The day two
convective outlook's marginal designation in western Iowa is
simply a function of the exiting early morning convection. The
area should be mostly dry as the June sun rises once again.

I've knocked temps down for Wednesday as the front is progged to
be significantly farther south than this weekend's forecasts
suggested. Certainly there's some uncertainty in its placement,
especially with tonight's expected convection. I'm interested to
see where it sits tomorrow morning.

Thursday evening brings another opportunity for severe weather
along the same front, expected this time to be draped a bit more
west to east.

The heat builds back into the area this weekend with a ridge
pushing well into the Dakotas. Triple digit heat is possible
Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Even with the dewpoints a bit drier
than they've been this week, heat advisory criteria may be met.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a front currently over
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa this evening. Latest CAMs
show storm initiation around 01-02Z this evening, with storms
festering along this boundary, as it drifts northward, through
12Z. The best chance for convection at KLNK and KOMA would be from
around 02-06Z, with a smaller chance of storms lingering until 10Z
as they drift north. The best chance over KOFK appears to be
04-08Z with a few showers and storms lingering until 12Z. The main
threats with any storms that develop would be large hail and
damaging winds. VFR conditions are expected to prevail late
Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ091>093.

IA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ080-090-091.

&&

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...KG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
714 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-151415-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
714 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

Scattered thunderstorms developing along a frontal boundary over
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, will continue to drifting
northward through the overnight hours. Large hail, damaging winds,
and locally heavy rainfall are the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Tuesday

Thunderstorms may redevelop on Thursday evening south of the
Platte River. Severe weather is possible.

Hot and humid weather can be expected Saturday through Monday
with daytime highs again in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation will probably not be needed tonight,
but spotters are encouraged to report severe weather if it
develops in your area.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
753 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             2 S BEATRICE            40.25N 96.75W
06/14/2022  E0.75 INCH       GAGE               NE   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING.

&&

CA