NWS Indianapolis, IN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 1, 11:45 PM EST, 2 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 1, 11:45 PM EST, 2 hours 15 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1145 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 944 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022
Made some minor tweaks to PoPs, otherwise, radar was showing bulk of
the rain was lifting northeast across the Wabash Valley. Still,
expect the rain to spread southeast through the night. Temperatures
were on track and still in the middle 40s over northern sections and
upper 40s and lower 50s elsewhere. The HRRR BUFKIT LAF sounding
supports a changeover to sleet or perhaps freezing rain after 4 AM
for northwestern sections and then a quick transition to all snow.
The transition zone should then get as far south as a Kokomo to
Crawfordsville line by 7 AM. Areas north of this line could see
upwards of an inch or slightly more of snow overnight along with
light icing. This will cause some travel difficulties for the
morning commute. Timing is handled well in web site and social media
graphics.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022
Highlights:
-- High confidence in a significant, high-impact winter storm
especially for areas near and north of Indianapolis, but not
excluding other portions of the area.
-- Uncertainties remain with amounts and timing of precipitation
type transition.
-- Precipitation type transition order: Rain, freezing rain,
sleet, and eventually snow. Quicker transition period north, and
slower transition south.
-- Greater snowfall accumulations in northern and portions of
central Indiana, and greater ice and sleet accumulations across
southern Indiana.
-- Snow amounts and water content could cause snow load issues,
with property damage possible (i.e., trees, power lines, and
some roofs).
-- Dangerous cold possible Saturday morning including possible
sub-zero temperatures.
Messaging Recommendations:
-- Focus should be on significant impacts to daily life including
difficult to nearly impossible travel, and not necessarily on
specific amounts of snow and ice as some uncertainty remains.
-- Magnitudes of impacts for portions of the area could rival or
exceed some of our noteworthy past events including 1-2 February
2011, 14 February 2007, and 23 December 2004.
-- For further historical perspective, in Indianapolis, 10 inches
or more of snow in a two day period is a top 25 event. 11.5" or
more is a top 10 event. 16.1" is the record two day snow amount.
Meteorological Analysis and Uncertainties:
Potential scenarios have narrowed as model spread has decreased at
this stage. There are a few areas of uncertainties for portions
of the forecast that we will highlight below, but in general this
is a fairly high-confidence forecast, albeit with inherent
uncertainties related to precipitation type transitions.
On the synoptic scale, water vapor channel imagery shows a well-
defined shortwave trough moving from Lake Superior northeastward
into Ontario with an increasingly active southern stream into the
Southwest part of the country. Advected Layer Precipitable Water
shows an anomalous surge of deep moisture up through the Mississippi
Valley with strengthening warm advection attached to aforementioned
Ontario shortwave trough. Radar echoes are already noted in eastern
Illinois into west-central Indiana and these will continue to expand
as warm/moist advection regime increases.
We will enter a prolonged period of anomalous moisture and ascent
tonight, although there were be two distinct periods of stronger
ascent and deeper saturation. (1) during the day Wednesday, followed
by a lull in the heavier precipitation rates across the south, and
(2) early Thursday morning through at least mid-afternoon with the
second shortwave trough. In between, ascent and moisture will
still be present for precipitation but veering/weakening flow with
departing wave in Canada will favor generally light anafrontal
precipitation, except across northwest near the southwest-
northeast midlevel baroclinic zone. This is where frontogenesis is
quite strong and rates may be quite intense (2+ inches/hour) with
mesoscale banding. Also, as heavier precipitation rates depart,
trailing light-moderate deformation band could bring additional
light snow with higher snow-liquid ratios Thursday evening/night,
particularly across southern portions of the area.
This event differs from a more classic mid-latitude system in that a
dry conveyor belt isn't at play to end precipitation quickly, and an
intense/anomalous closed midlevel low with well-defined deformation
to its north. Instead, while there will be some periods of strong
ascent, duration is the key factor with this event. Several hours of
at least moderate to occasionally strong omega within the dendritic
growth zone is indicated in NWP starting early Wednesday and
continuing through late Thursday.
The trend has been for quicker cold air arrival than earlier model
runs, and we have adjusted timing of precipitation transition
accordingly. This gives us enough confidence to upgrade the Winter
Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning for our entire area (including
our southern Indiana counties). By around midnight Wednesday night
our entire area should be below freezing, and it is possible if
trends continue we may need to speed the arrival of sub-freezing
temperatures further.
Uncertainty in forecast details increase slightly into Thursday
given run-to-run model differences with timing/amplitude of the
second wave, now organizing near California. GEFS ensemble
spaghetti plots of 500-mb contours is clustered enough that we're
confident in another period of deeper ascent/moisture that could
be fairly significant on Thursday.
For all locations, the progression of precipitation type will be
rain, to a brief period of freezing rain, to sleet to snow. This
transition will occur quicker in the north than the south as warm
nose is a little more pronounced in the south. Models show there may
even be a slight nudge of 850-mb 0C line (good proxy for warm nose
on the plan view) northward which could at least stall precipitation
transition. As of right now, although a transient period of freezing
rain may occur, it does appear that as this happens the cold layer
will become sufficiently deep for a transition to sleet. In fact,
sleet may be heavy enough and last long enough accumulate across the
southern portion of the area. One half inch or more of sleet
accumulation seems increasingly likely across portions of southern
Indiana.
Implications further north where broad warm nose cools to below
freezing will be for snow-liquid ratio to be sub-climatology
yielding heavy wet snow, with possible heavy riming. Thus, our
concern for snow loading. Across the northern portion of our area,
SLR should be closer to climatology and with 25+ mph winds, some
blowing and drifting of snow is possible.
With a colder trend and some potential for a southward shift in QPF,
we still feel confident in significant snowfall amounts of near or
above 12" in some portions of the area. What we lose in QPF, we'll
gain in increased SLR if the trend continues. This justifies
fairly high snow amounts even down into the I-70 corridor, hence
the upward trend in the forecast.
A final note to our broadcast meteorologists. We always
appreciate your critical role in communicating the impacts and
threats during these higher impact events. Thanks for your
partnership and please never hesitate to reach out to us if we can
assist in any way.
&&
.Long Term...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022
We will cover the post-event weather into the weekend and early next
week only briefly. The main impact appears to be the potential for
dangerously cold temperatures over snow pack, particularly Saturday
morning when a period of light/calm winds and excellent radiational
cooling exists. Sub-zero and locally 10 below or less may occur.
There is a weak signal for light precipitation sometime early next
week in some medium range deterministic and ensemble guidance, but
confidence is low and no mention at this time. Later forecast will
clarify this potential.
&&
.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1144 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022
IMPACTS:
-The rain will spread southeast and transition to sleet or
freezing and finally snow. The wintry mix will start around
09z at KLAF, 21z at KHUF, 22z at KIND and 01z Thursday at
KBMG.
-Mostly IFR flying conditions at KLAF with VFR deteriorating
to MVFR and worse at the other terminals after 11z.
-Winds at KLAF 360-020 degrees less than 10 knots increasing
to 12 to 17 knots and gusty after 11z. Winds will shift from
the south to southeast, then northeast and finally 360-020
degrees after 18z-24z. Winds will also gust to over 20 knots
following the wind shift.
-non-convective low level wind shear til 09z-11z.
DISCUSSION:
An inverted low pressure system will draw copious amounts of
moisture across the terminals overnight into Thursday night
which will allow for a solid precipitation shield that will
overspread the terminals from northwest to southeast. The
precipitation will transition over to freezing rain and sleet
from KLAF southeastward before snow becomes the dominate
precipitation type. This will also bring deteriorating flying
conditions to the terminals.
Winds from the south will back to the north as the day goes
on. Wind speeds will be generally less than 10 knots but
increase after 11z with with gusts to over 20 knots.
Marginal non-convective low level wind shear is expected
through the overnight.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Friday for
INZ053>057-060>065-067>072.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Friday for
INZ030-035>049-051-052.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for INZ021-028-029-
031.
&&
Update...MK
Short Term...BRB/White
Long Term...BRB
Aviation...MK
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 1, 10:54 PM EST, 3 hours 6 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1054 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022
INZ021-028-029-031-021100-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Howard-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, and Kokomo
1054 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022
This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Rain will change to a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow
overnight. Roads may become slick.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
A winter storm will continue Wednesday through Thursday, bringing
heavy snow along with some wintry mix. Travel will become difficult
and may become impossible for some areas. Blowing snow may develop
by Thursday as well.
Rainfall amounts prior to the transition to wintry precipitation may
produce flooding along area streams and rivers late in the week and
into the weekend.
Cold air late this week and early this weekend could bring wind
chills near 10 below zero.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are encouraged to report changeover time to wintry
precipitation along with snow and ice amounts during the storm.
&&
More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind
INZ030-035-036-043-021100-
Clinton-Fountain-Montgomery-Vermillion-
Including the cities of Frankfort, Attica, Covington, Veedersburg,
Crawfordsville, Clinton, and Fairview Park
1054 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022
This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
A wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow may move in
overnight
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
A winter storm will continue Wednesday through Thursday, bringing
significant amounts of snow along with some freezing rain and sleet.
Travel will become difficult to potentially impossible.
There remains some uncertainty on the path of the storm which could
impact precipitation types and amounts.
Rainfall amounts prior to the transition to wintry precipitation may
produce flooding along area streams and rivers late in the week and
into the weekend.
Cold air late this week and early this weekend could bring wind
chills near 10 below zero.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are encouraged to report changeover time to wintry
precipitation along with snow and ice amounts during the storm.
&&
More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind
INZ053>057-060>065-067>072-021100-
Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-
Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Spencer, Gosport, Martinsville, Mooresville,
Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle,
Shelburn, Farmersburg, Linton, Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington,
Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington,
Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon
1054 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022
This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
A winter storm will move in Wednesday through Thursday, bringing
significant amounts of snow, freezing rain, and sleet to central
Indiana. The most snow is expected across northern sections of the
area with a wintry mix reducing snow amounts in the south.
Significant impacts to travel will be likely.
There remains some uncertainty on the path of the storm which could
impact precipitation types and amounts.
Rainfall amounts prior to the transition to wintry precipitation may
produce flooding along area streams and rivers late in the week and
into the weekend.
Cold air late this week and early this weekend could bring wind
chills near 10 below zero.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are encouraged to report changeover time to wintry
precipitation along with snow and ice amounts during the storm.
&&
More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind
INZ037>042-044>049-051-052-021100-
Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-
Including the cities of Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City,
Farmland, Parker City, Rockville, Montezuma, Rosedale, Greencastle,
Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield,
New Castle, Terre Haute, and Brazil
1054 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022
This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
A winter storm will bring significant amounts of snow along with
some freezing rain and sleet to the area Wednesday through Thursday.
Travel will become difficult to potentially impossible.
There remains some uncertainty on the path of the storm which could
impact precipitation types and amounts.
Rainfall amounts prior to the transition to wintry precipitation may
produce flooding along area streams and rivers late in the week and
into the weekend.
Cold air late this week and early this weekend could bring wind
chills near 10 below zero.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are encouraged to report changeover time to wintry
precipitation along with snow and ice amounts during the storm.
&&
More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind